Week six lines/thoughts

The Lions get the cover

3)  BC +6'  winner

2)  Sask +10' winner

1)  Sask UNDER 51' winner

My record season to date is 16-9 ATS, with my Winnipeg -.5 pick left to go,....if the line goes to -3 I'll consider trying to middle.

My side King of Covers plays are 7-13 ATS, which give me a ranking of 1561 out of 1598 contestants....not exactly stellar.

This game can be humbling, good fortune with your plays.

Under 51 was a push, no?

No, 51' is 51.5, so my UNDER bet was a winner.

Plays:

5)  Toronto +3'    

4)  Bombers -.5

Presently I have a play of the Blue Bombers -.5, so I attempting to middle this game....that means if the Blue Bombers win the game by 1, 2 or 3 points I win both bets, and if the game falls anywhere else I have won one bet and lost the other for a loss of .1 unit

So far this season, my lines that I am making are better than what Vinny the linemaker is putting out.   A large proportion of games when there is a difference in my lines and Vegas' are either moving towards mine as the game moves closer to game time, or when there is a significant difference between the two, my opinions are winning.

Witness this week.

1)  My Indigo line had Saskatchewan +6 to Hamilton, the line opened at +11 and moved slightly to 10.5 at game time, Saskatchewan won and covered.

2)  My Indigo line had  Winnipeg -2.5 over Toronto, the line opened at pick and has moved to -3.5

3)  I had Montreal at +14 to Calgary, and the line is at +20 (I am not playing the Alouettes this week as terrible teams tend to play better after the middle of the season and going against Calgary during the regular season the last few years is a losing strategy).

This has happened in past weeks, though not close to 75% of the time as it has this week.  

How long will this kind of thing last?  Hard to say, usually the lines even out as there are more numbers to compute, ie, more games are played.

Predicting relative strengths is something I've never done before except in the CFL forums starting last year.  Many successful handicappers advocate doing this, and whatever method is done to compute this, obviously if your lines produce winners when there are differences between yours and theirs, you're onto something. 

And, some have not gotten what I'm doing....I'm NOT predicting what I think Vegas wil make the line at, I'm basically saying is, 

"I think team A is 3 points better than team B, and with home field advantage they are 6 points better than team B on their home field."

I'll start doing this in other sports to see if it translates to success.  For now, it's enjoy the wave, stay humble and increase bankroll.

My post was not meant to be rude at all Indigo. 

Great work as usual sir 

Hi Trumpinator....I've made about 3 second half bets in my life, all losers...you'd want to fade me on those types of plays.......I won't have any opinion for you in this one.

Evidently, trying to middle was not too great of an idea.

For the Montreal/Calgary I have a lean to the OVER as there are some query results on games with small totals and big lines that have gone OVER, but the sample size was about 5 games, not enough to justify a play, so I won't be playing this game.

Final results 4-1 for the week, 17-10 ATS for the season to date.

One other thing that I've noticed through the years of doing this.  Referees will go out of their way to give calls in the last five minutes of the game to the team that is  behind.....maybe it's human nature to favor the underdog, 

It is quite evident in basketball, that many, many close calls go to the team that is behind.  If I'm coaching  and I'm ahead I tell my players not to get anywhere close to another player that could give the ref reason to blow his whistle.  The game is reffed quite differently in the last few minutes of a game and what wasn't a call in the beginning of the game is often one at the end.