week 9 relative strengths/discussion

Question

STD:  14-9-10-1 last week.Redblacks couldn&#x27;t do it for me in a very good situation.....they don&#x27;t have it this year.  Their QB looks pretty, but when it gets down and dirty he hasn&#x27;t gotten his team  Ws.  They&#x27;re losing everything in the 4th quarter in about a million different ways.  They are dead and buried along with Hamilton.  It is a two horse race in the East,.......big game this week and we&#x27;ll see if  Montreal is the team this year in a pathetic division.These lines are my estimated strengths, NOT what I think Vegas will put out.Winnipeg -3    Edmonton 56.5Hamilton &#x2B;2.5  Ottawa 55Lions &#x2B;3.5      Calgary 54.5with RayToronto &#x2B;2  Montreal  52w/o RayToronto  &#x2B;6  Montreal   44

Indigo999 · Answer

STD:  14-9-10-1 last week.Redblacks couldn&#x27;t do it for me in a very good situation.....they don&#x27;t have it this year.  Their QB looks pretty, but when it gets down and dirty he hasn&#x27;t gotten his team  Ws.  They&#x27;re losing everything in the 4th quarter in about a million different ways.  They are dead and buried along with Hamilton.  It is a two horse race in the East,.......big game this week and we&#x27;ll see if  Montreal is the team this year in a pathetic division.These lines are my estimated strengths, NOT what I think Vegas will put out.Winnipeg -3    Edmonton 56.5Hamilton &#x2B;2.5  Ottawa 55Lions &#x2B;3.5      Calgary 54.5with RayToronto &#x2B;2  Montreal  52w/o RayToronto  &#x2B;6  Montreal   44

AussieDownUnder · Answer

You had a very quiet week last week Indigo but thats not a bad thing at all. I felt that way in Week #7 but instead I forced plays which was not a good thing and well, it didn't end up well.

Stamps off a bye as favs are 10-3-1 ATS and who knows that they are going to do to the Lions after that dismal display today vs the Riders.

I am liking the Bombers vs Eskimos match-up but the other 2 games are horrible. Alouettes on the road vs Argonauts will be small favs but can Durant on the road be trusted? Not sure when his last win on the road was..

BOL mate.

P.S are you still in Oz?

Indigo999 · Answer

Hi Aussie,Moving up your way and above in the beginning of October.  I&#x27;m getting in my car and driving and stopping where things look good.Not very systematic really....would like to be close to the water....may even end up in Bundy again where it all started for me in Oz.Pretty tired of the two-headedness that goes on waaaay down under.

Indigo999 · Answer

Line are out...mine in brackets.Bombers      &#x2B;1       (-3)     Eskimos      58.5  (56.5)Tiger Cats   &#x2B;3.5  (&#x2B;2.5 )   Redblacks   56     (55)Lions          &#x2B;4.5  (&#x2B;3.5)    Stampeders 57    (54.5)Argonauts         NL                 AlouettesBombers getting one is a surprise and would be put out there to stave off a rush of loaded Eskimos&#x27; money.  The Tiger Cats, Redblacks and Argos won&#x27;t be getting any of my money this week.Home divisional dogs with a positive scoring margin........which means they&#x27;re a decent team have been 6-11 ATS before week 13, (and 9-2 ATS thereafter) which fits the Lions and the Bombers this week.Away divisional favorites that are below 500 have been 7-2 ATS before week 11.......Redblacks.Teams that have won their last three games that they played on the road have been 10-5 ATS and 10-5 O/U as away divisional favorites....Eskimos.Teams that have scored &gt;31 points their last game and won have been 1-5-1 ATS and 1-6 O/U as divisional home dogs.....Bombers.Teams that have averaged 30 points/game have been 2-8 ATS and 2-8 O/U as home underdogs, 1-3 ATS and 1-3 O/U in divisional games.....Bombers.Teams that are home divisional dogs and that will be on the road next week versus a team that will be home favorites have been 22-33-2 ATS.....Bombers.TONS of past history favoring the unbeaten Eskimos and let&#x27;s face it....they&#x27;ve been playing their butts off this season.  They and Calgary are clearly a notch above everyone else this year.....so far.  Despite all this, I don&#x27;t like them in the Bombers home ground this week.  Despite the fact that when Calgary rocked into Winnipeg earlier this season, they crushed and embarrassed the Bombers.Unbeaten teams on the road in the CFL?.....going back to 2007 after week 6 there&#x27;s only been two instances, which means parity rules in the "C".  Eskimos though very tough, don&#x27;t have the looks of a juggernaut to me.  I said last week that the wheels will fall off a little in one of the Esks&#x27; two next games and they didn&#x27;t last week.  This may be the week.Will ponder some more on this game.

spottie2935 · Answer

This part makes him so touch for the books to beat.  Last year it was fire away and win a huge %,  this year stay focused and come what may. The winning is still there as well.   It has been Really impressive to witness.   I have yet to witness such a thing.

Indigo999 · Answer

Home dogs that have at least 2 more wins than losses, week&gt;3, have been 11-3 ATS, 10-4 straight up....if they are off a loss this moves to 6-0 ATS, 5-1 straight up....Lions.if off win 5-3, 5-3 straight up......Bombers.

Indigo999 · Answer

HOWEVER, (there&#x27;s always gonna be one of those).Teams off an away loss with &gt;3 turnovers have been 2-8-1 ATS, 1-10 straight up, losing th game by an average of  &gt;10 points......LionsGood to see you guys....I&#x27;m hating that all of these games are home dog lines.

Indigo999 · Answer

Teams off an away favorite win of &gt;17 points, now home have been 8-10 ATS, but 16-3 straight up...the only time a team in this situation has been a home dog they won straight up.  In divisional games this has been 6-5-1 ATS and 9-3 ATS, winning by &gt;10 points/game......Bombers.

Indigo999 · Answer

9-3 straight up,  Bombers

Indigo999 · Answer

And for you query freaks out there.....playoffs=0 and tA(margin)&lt;=oA(margin) and HD and DIV and tA(W)&lt;=oA(W) and t:wins-t:losses&gt;0 Those that haven&#x27;t used queries if you wish, copy the text above and take it to either the sportsdatabase or killersports websites, click on CFL, then click on CFL query page and below the CFL SDQL Query Access text will be a white box that you can paste this into, then hit the gray "SDQL" box and it will give you the results.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

That is a very suspicious line Indigo...

Bombers +1 at home against the Eskimos, an unbeaten team coming off a a road win (fav).. hmmm. The Bombers D is questionable and I don't believe they played D that well vs the Cats, its just that the Cats are horrendous on every side of the field right now. Collaros couldn't hit anything either. I personally thought the Eskimos would fall apart after losing some key defensive men but they haven't. The Bombers at home are great and the Eskimos on the road not so great but man this is a very tough game to cap with a very tough line..

Do the Redblacks deserve -4 on the road at Hamilton when the Bombers were closing at -1.5? Thats a suspect line so to speak and i believe that the Cats can get a win in this game. Reblacks have done absolutely nothing this season and they are a liability but so are the Cats and I don't like investing money on poor teams anymore.. Might sit that one out.

I remember last season, first game of the season I was watching it in my lounge room, Stamps @ Lions. Stamps were around -3 (by memory) as a road fav. They were leading most of the game but then Mr Jennings stepped up in the 4Q and they Lions ended up winning the game outright. I have never seen anything like what I saw yesterday with any QB in any league. Maybe in college football which I don't watch much but nothing in CFL or NFL. A QB like Jennings quality giving up 4 interceptions in just 2.5 quarters. What the hell happened? I will wait to see what Wally does because he has faith in Jennings and if he does insert Jennings into the starting role of QB for this massive divisional game, then I will most likely take the Lions because Jennings has to step up and show Wally that he still has it and that last week was just a one in a million kind of game.

BOL this week Indigo, appreciate the time and effort you put into your threads across multiple sports.

Indigo999 · Answer

Plays:Bombers &#x2B;1Feel it&#x27;s time for the Eskimos to lose and of course we&#x27;d rather take a team that can score as a dog.  This could be a video game variety scorefest.  Winnipeg&#x27;s D did look better last week with Mo Liggett back in the line up.   Edmonton hasn&#x27;t played a stinker yet....it&#x27;s high time.Angle:  Teams that have won &gt;1 more game than they&#x27;ve lost as home dogs with a worse record than their opponent have been 8-0 ATS/SU winning by &gt;10 points/game...this goes to 16-3 ATS/SU if we take out the requirement that they be dogs.2)  Redblacks -3.5Glutton for punishment you say?  Ubetcha.  I&#x27;m like the foodaholic that promises himself that he won&#x27;t touch that awesome chocolate cake that his size 6 wife made for the kid&#x27;s birthday party....can&#x27;t help myself.  Teams that are below 500 as away favorites are 7-2 ATS/SU in divisional games before week 11, winning by an average of 15 points/game.Let&#x27;s hope that the Redblacks won&#x27;t have to pull anything out in the fourth quarter as they have been the chokers of the CFL this year so far.  And come on, the Tiger Cats are allowing 39 points/game, and while the RBs haven&#x27;t gotten Ws, they have performed pretty well on the road.Good Fortune.

Indigo999 · Answer

3)  Grey Cup Winner   Alouettes  &#x2B;1000, .1 unit.This is all my bookmaker will allow me to bet as they are afraid of their own shadows here where I reside.I will reiterate my rationale.  Montreal I am sure will win their division and if one looks at the season to date statistics, they are at the very top of both offensive and defensive performances this year in the entire CFL in yardage gained and yards/play.If they win the division which I am betting that they will, they would get a first round bye, and then they would play the winner of an elimination game of the number 2 Eastern Division seed versus the number 4 seed in the West, most likely BC or Winnipeg.  Based on what&#x27;s happened so far, I would have the Als at about &#x2B;2.5 at home to either team, assuming the Western team would beat the eastern team on their home turf.....never an easy task in the playoffs despite the difference in the team&#x27;s records, and performance during the season.   Besides this is Canada, where the NHL is known for crazy upsets in the playoffs and number 8 seeds can do big-time damage,......witness Nashville this year and the LA Kings previously. Home dogs in the playoffs have historically performed very well with much worse teams than the Alouettes are this year.  I could hedge if I wished to in this game, or wait and if they won, they would play in the Grey Cup played in Toronto this year, where they&#x27;d be 6 or 7 point dogs.  Ottawa, with a much worse team last year than the Als have this year,   beat the much superior Calgary Stampeders to win it with the line at &#x2B;9.5.   Montreal would  be &#x2B;220-&#x2B;250 underdogs,...which presents a hedging opportunity or I could ride my .1 unit investment.  I put the actual Montreal odds of winning the Grey Cup at closer to &#x2B;500.If any of this reasoning falls apart, I have lost 1/10th of a unit.

fab14 · Answer

The grey cup is in Qttawa this year

Indigo999 · Answer

ah, sorry, my bad.

Indigo999 · Answer

Just wanted to see if you were alert Fab.Upped the future play to 2/10ths of a unit on the Als to win the Grey Cup at &#x2B;1000.......Chassez tous leurs &#xE2;nes Alouettes !!......

Mushu · Answer

Thanks for the write ups, Indigo.

Indigo999 · Answer

Sure Mushu, hope they&#x27;re winners for everyone concerned.....

Indigo999 · Answer

Adding:3)  Bombers/Eskimos OVER 57.5 &#x2B;104Rarely do I play OVER,........ I think both teams are going to score &gt;20 points and when that happens the OVER has been 274-62, 81.5%.If the game is a divisional contest and both teams score at least 21 points, it moves to 150-33 OVER (82%), going OVER by close to 10 points/game.

bold27 · Answer

If they score exactly 58 we both winGood luck tonight

CoverMyLosses · Answer

Thank god they went for the FG instead of the TD.  Cash that OVER!

Indigo999 · Answer

Yes Cover, sometimes coaches do stupid things in the heat of the moment.....fortunately he did the percentage play.1)  Bombers &#x2B;1   Win2)  Bombers OVER 57-  Win

Indigo999 · Answer

The preliminary line on the Argos/Als line is Argos -3, 52, with the expectation that Ricky Ray will play.  My line for this game with Ray was &#x2B;2, 52.The Argos have been 15-32 ATS as home favorites and 10-19 ATS home divisional favorites, so the Argos history is not exactly strong in this department.Immediate revenge games?  If the present home favorite lost as an away dog the previous week to the same opponent, they&#x27;ve been 2-8 ATS in division games.Looking long and hard at the Als as an away dog for this game.

Indigo999 · Answer

Alouettes meanwhile have been a 56% performer as an away dog, 33-26 ATS.When the total is &gt;51 they&#x27;ve been 18-11 ATS, 12-17 O/U.As an away divisional dog they&#x27;ve been 16-8 ATS, 8-16 O/U.

Chauster · Answer

Nice hit yesterday on bombers.

week 9 relative strengths/discussion

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