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Week 4 lines, picks

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Prospect
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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

1-2 ATS for the week, 7-6 ATS for the season. Saskatchewan has HUGE quarterback issues, and perhaps Montreal finally found a decent qb....if I am the GM I am cutting Drew Willy immediately and I am playing Matthews for the rest of the season....he looked poised and unafraid and he threw the ball down the field, and Willy looked like typical Willy,  a scared rabbit, with no mobility who coughs up the ball. My lines for next week.   Home               line                Road           Total Saskatchewan    +5                Hamilton       51 Montreal            +8                Ottawa          47       (Ottawa always has trouble in Montreal) Toronto             +3                Edmonton      56 Winnipeg           -7'                BC                 55   .

 

What makes you think Ottawa has trouble with MONT

Ottawa is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Montreal

Ottawa is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Montreal?

Favorites are off to an 8-4 start ...All these favs look juicy this week - I think something smells

Gl with your plays this week

 
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Posted: #27

That was my error  Powerz......I put down Ottawa, which was correct but was thinking that Calgary, NOT Ottawa was at Montreal....so muddled thinking and incorrect information.

 
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Posted: #28

Oh I see okay cool

 

Do you guys know much about the Back up QB for Toronto? I am think edmonton does have much on him

 
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Posted: #29

James Franklin is the back-up....he's played some, super talented....he's light years better than what Montreal and Saskatchewan has been putting out onto the field or BC too for that matter.

He'll perform well, as Trestman is a quarterback whisperer.....he's presently a better quarterback  than Ricky Ray, I'm not worried about him at all.

 
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Posted: #30

Franklin scares me he is good but hopefully not this week

 
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Posted: #31
I know virtually nothing about the CFL, so I bow to Indigo999's infinitely superior knowledge.  However, this query is just too compelling for two Week 4 games:

HD and line > 6.2

ATS:  22-7-0 (8.12, 75.9%)

That query likes SAS and MON.  I'll either take 'em or pass; I won't fade 'em.
 
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Posted: #32

Lines have moved and all of the totals have moved to within a point and half of where I had them to start the week.

Mine in parentheses

Saskatchewan   +7     (+5)   Hamilton    51    (51)

Montreal           +7'    (8/3')  Ottawa       48'   (47)

Toronto             +3     (3')     Edmonton   56   (56)

Winnipeg           -4'     (-7')    BC             55   (55') 

 

Montreal line was altered when I suffered a brain cramp as for some reason I thought the Als were playing Calgary, but had it listed correctly as Ottawa.  Probably won't be the last time.....apologies for that.

 

Have strong leans to Argos, Peggers and the Riders, but haven't pulled any triggers on those games.

 
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Posted: #33

Teams off a pointspread loss of >12 points, now a home dog, 13-26 ATS (1-3 ATS line>6)......Sasquatches, Argos

If off a home loss, 4-10 ATS.

Off home loss and non-divisional game 2-6, 6-2 OVER

 

Home dogs off a pointspread win of greater than 12 points....Alouettes  6-16 ATS

If a divisional game 2-8-1 ATS,..and  off an away dog win, now a home dog to a divisional rival 1-8-1 ATS.

 

 
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Posted: #34
Hamilton playing their 3rd road game out west in 4 weeks, also their 4th straight non-division game. Any trends there?
 
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Posted: #35

Hi Bluenoser....a team playing their 3rd away game in 4 games as an away non-conference favorite, with their last game being a home favorite winning,  has gone 6-0 straight up and 4-1-1 ATS.  

I could not get my database to cooperate on the 4th straight non-divisional game parameter.

 
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Posted: #36

Powerz,

 

OTT has only covered a number that big ONCE in their last 7 visits TO MONTREAL. At home it has been a totally different story.

Just a FYI when laying almost 7 as road chalk. The Hammer is in a similar situ vs. a Western team.

 
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Posted: #37

Play:

3)  Montreal/Ottawa UNDER 48

Falls into a 4-14 UNDER situation that is 0-10 UNDER early season.

 

 
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Posted: #38
TI CATS  - 6
 
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Posted: #39

Play: 

4)  Argonauts moneyline +150

Home non-divisional dogs that score >19 points have been 21-8 straight up in the first five weeks of the season.  If the Sasquatches can win without a quarterback, certainly the Argos can win with one.  Even if both teams score greater than 19,  points, which looks very likely, the home dog has been 12-8 straight up.

These are my plays for the week.

1)  Redblacks -6

2)  Redblacks UNDER

3)  Toronto +150

4)  Toronto OVER 52'

 

One observation tonight....it's tough to win on the road in any sport....Saskatchewan played inspired football and made the plays towards the end of the game to get the W.

Hamilton is 2-2, having played 4 of the best teams in the league, 3 on the road....I expect they'll win their division, which will gets them a home playoff game, which is what I am hoping for with my Tiger Cats Grey Cup futures ticket.  Their defense is stellar this year, which  is like a night and day difference  from last year.  Ottawa will present a challenge maybe, and I don't think the other two teams will.

 
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Posted: #40
1)  Ottawa -6 winner

2)  Ottawa UNDER 49 winner

3)  Argonauts +150 

4)  Argos/Esks OVER 52'

5)  Argos/Esks UNDER 56

Obviously I am attempting to get a middle in the Toronto/Edmonton game.
 
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Posted: #41
The game was not televised in my area, but from looking at the statistics of the game, it looks like the Alouettes finally have a quarterback that they can live with.   Mathews threw for over 9 yards/pass, which will win a good amount of games, if you can do that.

Hopefully they have moved on from the Drew Willy experiment, but coaches and GMs often don't see what spectators can see, which is one guy throws it down the field and the other is afraid to.  

Having a higher yards per pass attempt than your opponent has the highest correlation to winning football games of any statistic with the exception of turnovers, so you'd hope that those making football decisions get coaches and quarterbacks that integrate more than 3 yard passes into their game planning. and execution.

I'd like to see Mathews play a game or two, but Montreal will now be on my radar, especially as a dog off a loss, whereas it'll be hard for me to back Saskatchewan and BC because neither of their offenses can throw the ball, I'll more than likely want to fade them off a win, especially on the road where one needs good quarterbacking.

Let's see if Toronto can get the win tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #42

3)  Toronto +150 winner

2)  Ottawa -6 winner

1)  Ottawa UNDER 49 winner

10-6, +3.5 units season to date

 
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Posted: #43

ah, sorry....I neglected to say my attempt at a middle didn't work, which went 1-1, -.1 unit

11-7, 3.4 units season to date 

 
 
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Posted: #44

I'm a bit bored so I'll throw some random database stats out there.

Away dogs the first 6 weeks of the season have been:

115-77 ATS, close to 60%

59-39 ATS versus non-divisional foes

56-39 ATS versus the division

Away non-playoff dogs after week six see their percentages drop from 60% to 52% to 196-176 ATS

Divisional away dogs  112-95 ATS

non-divisional dogs 84-81 ATS

 

 

Home dogs before week 6 have been 44-34, 56.4%

Home non-divisional dogs <week 6, 29-14 ATS

Home divisional dogs < week 6, 15-20 ATS

 

Home dogs after week 6, 85-85-6 ATS

Home divisional dogs after week 6, 45-49 ATS

Home non-divisional dogs after week 6, 40-36 ATS

And for all you esoteric types that believe that what happens ahead of us can influence what happens now....underdogs that will be underdogs their next game versus a team that will be a favorite next game, have been 85-117 ATS, 42%, all other underdogs have been 179-128 ATS, 58%, the exact opposite percentage.

 

 

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