Not a great weekend, going 1-2, losing my 1.5 unit play on the Sasquatches. Bo Levi played an awesome game and the magic for the Argos that they had last year hasn't materialized. And, maybe there's hope in British Columbia.
6-8, -1.05 units for the season
Calgary looks destined to come in last place...they have no defense and no running game......they, at a minimum will need to replace their defensive coordinator and their quarterback before next season....perhaps Dickenson is on thin ice too, though his record until a couple of years ago has been very good....he is only 5-14 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of 2021.
Indigo lines
Montreal -4 48 BC
Ottawa -3' 47 Toronto
Winnipeg -6 48 Saskatchewan
Edmonton -6 53 Calgary....as bad as Calgary has been as a home favorite, Edmonton has been worse, going 2-10 ATS the past three seasons. They now look like an upper echelon team, despite my misgivings about Bethel-Thompson being the guy in Edmonton. I still hold out hope that they will put Ford into the lineup, which now looks unlikely when your other quarterback throws for a zillion yards his last game. The Eskimos/Elks still play the Bombers twice before the end of the season, which will be interesting viewing. I think the Elks with Ford are better then the Bombers, but we might not get to see that matchup.
One thing that I found that I mentioned last thread, was that 3 point home favorites have been a great fade in the CFL.....turns out 3.5 point dogs have also had a strong historical record. If we add that our play-on team has the lesser or equal winning percentage, these away underdogs of +3 or +3.5 points have gone 35-11 ATS in July, August or September.
AD and 4>line>2.5 and 10>month>6 and tA(W)<=oA(W) and month
Play:
1) BC Lions +3.5........1 unit
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Not a great weekend, going 1-2, losing my 1.5 unit play on the Sasquatches. Bo Levi played an awesome game and the magic for the Argos that they had last year hasn't materialized. And, maybe there's hope in British Columbia.
6-8, -1.05 units for the season
Calgary looks destined to come in last place...they have no defense and no running game......they, at a minimum will need to replace their defensive coordinator and their quarterback before next season....perhaps Dickenson is on thin ice too, though his record until a couple of years ago has been very good....he is only 5-14 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of 2021.
Indigo lines
Montreal -4 48 BC
Ottawa -3' 47 Toronto
Winnipeg -6 48 Saskatchewan
Edmonton -6 53 Calgary....as bad as Calgary has been as a home favorite, Edmonton has been worse, going 2-10 ATS the past three seasons. They now look like an upper echelon team, despite my misgivings about Bethel-Thompson being the guy in Edmonton. I still hold out hope that they will put Ford into the lineup, which now looks unlikely when your other quarterback throws for a zillion yards his last game. The Eskimos/Elks still play the Bombers twice before the end of the season, which will be interesting viewing. I think the Elks with Ford are better then the Bombers, but we might not get to see that matchup.
One thing that I found that I mentioned last thread, was that 3 point home favorites have been a great fade in the CFL.....turns out 3.5 point dogs have also had a strong historical record. If we add that our play-on team has the lesser or equal winning percentage, these away underdogs of +3 or +3.5 points have gone 35-11 ATS in July, August or September.
AD and 4>line>2.5 and 10>month>6 and tA(W)<=oA(W) and month
a) An away underdog that won as a home favorite after being on at least a three game losing streak......10-3 ATS (+4.8), 5-8 SU (-1.2)....ON Lions
p:streak<-2 and p:HFW and AD and playoffs=0
b) A home favorite that won their previous game as a home favorite, playing a team that won their previous game as a home favorite in the months of July, August or September.....8-17 ATS.....VERSUS Alouettes....this moves to 0-6-1 ATS if this is a non-divisional matchup.
HF and p:HFW and op:HFW and 11>month>6 and not DIV
Angles......
a) An away underdog that won as a home favorite after being on at least a three game losing streak......10-3 ATS (+4.8), 5-8 SU (-1.2)....ON Lions
p:streak<-2 and p:HFW and AD and playoffs=0
b) A home favorite that won their previous game as a home favorite, playing a team that won their previous game as a home favorite in the months of July, August or September.....8-17 ATS.....VERSUS Alouettes....this moves to 0-6-1 ATS if this is a non-divisional matchup.
HF and p:HFW and op:HFW and 11>month>6 and not DIV
c) Home favorites playing a team that is winless in their previous three road games are typically bad bets which fits both the Roughriders and Stamps....191-248-5 ATS, 43.5%, .....in divisional games this moves to 95-119 ATS, 44.4%.
However a home divisional favorite who played the same opponent their last game, off an away dog win in that game have gone 8-2-1 ATS (+14.8), 10-1 straight up (+19.5).....On Bombers, ON Elks
HF and oS(W@A, N=3)=0 and week>7 and DIV and po:team=o:team
Play:
2) Bombers -2.....1 unit
1) Lions +3.5......1 unit
c) Home favorites playing a team that is winless in their previous three road games are typically bad bets which fits both the Roughriders and Stamps....191-248-5 ATS, 43.5%, .....in divisional games this moves to 95-119 ATS, 44.4%.
However a home divisional favorite who played the same opponent their last game, off an away dog win in that game have gone 8-2-1 ATS (+14.8), 10-1 straight up (+19.5).....On Bombers, ON Elks
HF and oS(W@A, N=3)=0 and week>7 and DIV and po:team=o:team
This is a non-handicapping train of thought.....the last 3 weeks home teams have gone 2-9 ATS....prior to that there was a four week stretch of home teams going 12-4 against the number. Typically this is not sustainable..... the books have lowered their lines to 3 or below in accordance with what has recently gone on.
After three or four weeks of one result for home teams we would expect a reversal....This recent stretch of games was in the sweet spot historically of road underdogs covering for the time of year that has transpired.
We are now in the home and favorites covering time (after week 13, where home teams have gone 26-36, 11-26 ATS as home favorites), which would be similar to different commodities or the stock market performing differently at certan times of the year.
This is a non-handicapping train of thought.....the last 3 weeks home teams have gone 2-9 ATS....prior to that there was a four week stretch of home teams going 12-4 against the number. Typically this is not sustainable..... the books have lowered their lines to 3 or below in accordance with what has recently gone on.
After three or four weeks of one result for home teams we would expect a reversal....This recent stretch of games was in the sweet spot historically of road underdogs covering for the time of year that has transpired.
We are now in the home and favorites covering time (after week 13, where home teams have gone 26-36, 11-26 ATS as home favorites), which would be similar to different commodities or the stock market performing differently at certan times of the year.
1) Ottawa -1'.......1 unit.....winner 2) Lions +3..........1 unit.....winner 3) Bombers -2.......1 unit....winner 4) Elks -2'.............1 unit....winner 10-8, +2.95 units for the season....10-4 in the CFL
nice run 999
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
1) Ottawa -1'.......1 unit.....winner 2) Lions +3..........1 unit.....winner 3) Bombers -2.......1 unit....winner 4) Elks -2'.............1 unit....winner 10-8, +2.95 units for the season....10-4 in the CFL
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