Posted:
#1
Season to date 4-1, +2.95 units.
I am not estimating what lines Vegas will put out, but giving my relative strength of teams. I do this to put down my thoughts down in writing and also to promote discussion among CFL cappers.
If you feel this can benefit you, great, if you don't get the premise, ignore, and if you think these lines are totally off, fade them to make money for yourself. I am not doing this to show superiority in my thinking, but to make money, period. If someone has a different angle to my thinking, I think that is great, as long as you are more correct than Las Vegas.
Different opinions are what makes a market, right?
1) Montreal +3 British Columbia 51
2) Winnipeg pik Calgary 56
3) Ottawa -6 Toronto 55
4) Sask -3 Hamilton 55
I've mentioned this before, but it probably it can't be repeated enough,...the CFL is a dog and UNDER league......ESPECIALLY in the first six weeks of the season this is the case. Dogs, if you have not noticed have gone 8-0 so far. Probably we won't hear of any bankruptcy notices from Las Vegas sportsbooks next week, because despite this being a clear trend for many years, people still are betting favorites and OVERs in the CFL, just like people are going to Vegas and putting money into slot machines.
Probably the Vegas books think CFL betting is the best thing going, because it is just more difficult by human nature to bet on a team when it "just doesn't make sense", which is usually underdogs. This is the essence of life though, change and unpredictability are inevitable.....maybe just betting that the CFL is not predictable is a winning strategy in and of itself.
An example of that is for me, the WNBA....I was a basketball guy and I know the game, and this year, I've watched A LOT of WNBA games because I like it. Has it helped my handicapping? Nope, I've been pathetic at it this year, much better at it last year, when I watched only occasionally ,...and I've been a poor NBA capper as well in my past when I thought I could use my insight to beat the spread. Knowledge of the game doesn't get you the money, that's why quants and nerds that have never played the game make money and ex-coaches and players don't at sports betting.
Non-divisional dogs have been better than divisional dogs throughout my database history.
One example to the "underdogs rule" is in the case where the home favorite has a worse record than their opponent, that has basically been a break-even scenario for divisional games.....which relates to the Redblacks who will be favored over the Argos in week 3 despite having a worse record.
The record for a home favorite in a non divisional game with a worse win/loss record has been 4-10 ATS in the first six weeks, which may happen if the Riders at home versus the Tiger Cats are favored this coming week.
I believe that Mister Las Vegas will make the Stampeders favorites over the Bombers by as much as 3 points, and I'll be interested in taking the Bombers if they are an underdog @home.
Good fortune.
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