CFL LocksvilleUSA System

I had some extra time during baseball season and since its still a little too early to start capping the NFL because of upcoming roster changes I decided to go through the past two seasons of the CFL and create a system based on points scored h/a and teams opponents points scored h/a.  I then used a linear regression analysis using the past seasons data and in 2007 and 2008 combined the system would have hit at 13-2 betting sides and totals through the first 3 weeks.  From there I am still working on integrating the past seasons stats and the new seasons stats and I have not created anything with a decisive advantage yet but I still have some time before week 4.  Below are my picks for week one and good luck.

Hamilton @ -2

Toronto – Hamilton – Over 51.5

Saskatchewan @  +1

BC @ Saskatchewan – Over 48.5

LocksvilleUSA

Went 2-2 for Week 1…still not sure how that Ham - Tor game didn't go over and if it wasn't for so many bad major penalties I think Hamilton may have won that game.  Here is my analysis for week 2:

Edmonton 25.5 @ Montreal 37.6

O/U is at 52.5, I have it at 62.1, Play the Over

Spread is Mont - 6, Play Montreal

Calgary 30.0 @ Win 21.3

O/U is at 52 (I have it at 51.3) - No Play, need 5 point difference

Spread is Win +5.5, and I have it at 8.2 which is only a delta of 2.7 and I need a 5 point difference to bet.

Sask 34.6 @ Toronto 20.9

O/U is set at 52.5, I have predicted 55.5 - No Play

Spread is Tor -2.5 - Play Sask @ +2.5

Hamilton 21.7 @ BC 37.3

O/U is 50, I have predicted 59 - Play the Over

Spread is BC - 12.5, No Play

Week 1: 2-2

Week 2: 4-0

Here is my analysis for week 3:

BC 30.4 @ Edmonton 28.5

O/U is at 53, I have it at 58.9, Play the Over

Spread is Edmonton – 4.5, Play BC

Toronto 18.9 @ Calgary 39.6

O/U is at 55 (I have it at 58.4) - No Play

Spread is Cal -7, Play Calgary

Montreal 31.2 @ Sask 26.8

O/U is set at 57.5, I have predicted 58 - No Play

Spread is Sask +4.5 – No Play

Winnipeg 26.7 @ Hamilton 25.5

O/U is 54, I have predicted 52.1 – No Play

Spread is Ham  +1, No Play

Slow week with only 3 plays…not sure if it’s a good thing or a bad thing that my system is almost identical to the lines on the last two games but you can’t lose money if you don’t bet it.

Good luck

LocksvilleUSA

Week 1: 2-2

Week 2: 4-0

Week 3: 3-0

Here is my analysis for week 4:

Hamilton 22.4 @ Montreal 40.2

O/U is at 55, I have it at 62.6, Play the Over

Spread is Montreal –14.5, Play Montreal

Toronto 20.6 @ Winnipeg 31.6

O/U is at 51, I have it at 52.2 - No Play

Spread is Winnipeg -4, Play Winnipeg

Calgary 29.0 @ BC 27.8

O/U is set at 58.5, I have predicted 56.9 - No Play

Spread is BC +3 – No Play

Edminton 25.0 @ Sask 20.3

O/U is 54.5, I have predicted 55.2 – No Play

Spread is Sask  -4.5, No Play

Thought about cancelling the Montreal -14.5 play because Hamilton was in a similar position last year in week 4 on the road facing a huge spread and covered.  The difference is last year they were 0-3 so BC took them lightly…this year they are 2-1 and Montreal will not overlook them.

Good luck

LocksvilleUSA

Third person, you are correct however I typed the predicted Sask points incorrectly.  The 20.3 should be a 30.3, this does not affect the total since I had already added that correctly and with the 30.3 there is a no play in the sides as well.  Sorry for the error transferring the data from excel and thanks for the check!