Weekend Picks (2/22-2/23)

I don't get it.  Haven't you been jocking Sultan all week?  And why would you play both sides of an ML?  That gives the books automatic money on the vig.

Let's say Wlad wins by KO.  You would win 7.5 units on your KO prop and 3 units on the ML.  but you would lose 15 units because of your Sultan and Wlad dec. plays.

If Wlad wins by decision: you win 17.5 units on your decision prop, 3 units on the ML, for a total of 20.5 units.  But you lose 10 units on the KO prop, and 10 units on Sultan, for a very modest 0.5 unit gain.

If Sultan wins by decision, you obviously bank (70 units won, with losses of 25 units on Wlad, for a total of 45 units won).

If Sultan wins by KO, you win 10 units on Sultan, but you lose 25 units on Wlad for a 15 unit net loss.

So, why didn't you just make a small play on Sultan by decision?  That's the only way you make $$ with your strange and complex bet.

also: the more wagers you make on a fight in order to attempt a hedge, the more money you give books in the long run.  You have to remember that the books' commission is built into every bet, so you want to minimize the number of sides you're taking on a given fight.

Very nice cash on Barashian A2C.  Ulrich is finished.

It was a great fight to watch.  I should have bet on him again when the fight was put back on the schedule. 

Sometimes I let the numbers affect my betting too much because I don't like to give in when the number goes bad, I had him at +750 now he's +500; so technically it's like taking a 2.5-1 dog at even odds.

If you would have seen him fight you would have probably had the same take on his ability.  It was still a winning FNF for you, no harm done.  Gamboa is pretty exciting uh?  Definitely not a Casamoyer style defector.

I'm with A2C this makes absolutely no sense to me.  That is without a doubt the weirdest way I have ever seen a fight bet.

As A2C stated, why not just be Sultan by decision?

Boxeo and Bigs: I'm with you guys, that is probably the best bet on the board for those that think Sultan gives him a strong go.  I think I first saw it at +140, so it hasn't moved very much.

played wlad -275 ml 30 units!

A2C: fine Urlich upset call, wish I'da tabbed that w/ you.

But Alex Alex did close out 1 Parlay for me. He advanced one. So only Duddddddy & the Heavyweight sides remain.

bigeiii

Any1 seeing the u.card sub Duddddddy anywheres? I would have liked to have seen Alexander Ustinov & Jon Banks.

GLA!
bigeiii

Yeah, fightnews has them.  Neither was extended past the 1st, LOL.

Well; not a lot to miss. But I would have enjoyed that, at least there was no doubt.

bigeiii

I'm not against watching JT/KP, but does this mean the Duddddddy match is now a dark-match? When will Wlad Klits start if the answer is "no"? TIA.

bigeiii

The Duddy fight wasn't ever supposed to be shown.  It was always going to be the replay of Pav-Taylor followed by Wlad-Sultan.  Sorry buddy.

I think it is being covered on the Canadian broadcast of the fight on TSN, but not here.  ESB has a round by round going, sounds like Duddy has eaten some big shots and Duddy is cut badly.

Duddy wins a MD.

95-95, 98-92, 98-92

Reads as if he had to overcome a gruesome cut and the 95-95 card was more indicative of the way the fight went.  If his handlers truly care about him they will keep him far away from Pavlik, he gets hit a ton.  Honestly, I like the kid, but he is going to end up damaged upstairs at the end of his career.

Looks like Duddy has pulled off the M.Dec. Keeping whatever BIGname possibly Title hopes he has alive. I needed that Though it appears this scoring is in some dispute. This finally puts me in the black after 2 deficit streak weekends. But hopefully Wlad will win, I am a fan, albeit a nervy one.

bigeiii

Near shutout for Wlad. 11-1 by me. That was not the best for me. But it still was enough to put me back in black for a weekend.

Who can/will beat Wlad??? Does Wlad have horse-racing blinkers on, that disable his ability to see an opponents Body, b/c he's nearly immune to trying to throw there. So Wlad is predictable on Offense; but under my boy Manny Stew, he has perfected this peck peck peck, then finally hunt style behind such a thudding lead-Jab or an oddball check or what Ali called a dragging Hook, then an occasional though very heavy Right. I'm not sure who can beat this??? Are you?

bigeiii

I snuck that Sultan Points Handicap in there as well. That was real nice. Stacked up over 4.4 units in house chips.

bigeiii

 

Good thing you got that bet in there Big!

I think you're looking at the odds shift in absolute value terms, when you should be looking at it in terms of percentages.  The shift from +250 to even is qualitatively different than the shift from +750 to +500 because you can make big profits on a very low stake bet with either of those dog odds.  But when something goes from +250 to even, you have to move up to your unit bet in order to make a normal profit, and the loss actually stings...I think that when a fight goes from +750 to +500,  it's lost 33% of its line value (250/750).  And when a fight goes from +250 to even, it's lost 60% of its line value (150/250). 

Wladmir Klitschko vs. Sultan Ibragimov
Ibragimov By Decision (+1400)
-0.2 unit 

Over 9.5 (+180)
+1.8 units

Barker (-600), Varela (+450), Barashian (+550), Ibragimov (+300)
4-leg Parlay (+16600)
- .05 unit 

Yuriorkis Gamboa vs. Johnnie Edwards
Under 7.5 (-120)
+1 unit

Richard Gutierrez vs. Jose Varela
Varela (+450)
- 0.4 unit 

Thomas Ulrich vs. Yuri Barashian
Barashian (+550)
+2.2 units

+4.35 units this weekend
-7.43 units in 2008

wlad should have been more aggressive for the ko