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Weekend Picks (2/22-2/23)

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Posted: #26
Agree on the Gamboa under.  I threw it into a long odds parlay.  I thought Rojas could have stopped Edwards if he would have been more measured, but that being said Edwards was never really hurt.  It is best sometimes to not bet against a fighter being stopped who has never been stopped or hurt to your knowledge when you aren't getting + money, but I thought this was worth a small stab.  From what I saw from Gamboa against De Jesus and Mayo he has star potential.

I like the Yuri play, I just couldn't bring myself to play him again with the lower odds at my sites when I tabbed him at +750 the first time around before it got canceled.

I can't side with you on Iggy of course as evidence by my Wlad plays.  I really think Sultan is too sloppy to not get hit with something huge at some point.  There is a big size/power disparity here and Iggy will be at the end of Klitschko's punches.

Disagree on the Alfero, I didn't think too much of him when I saw his fight against Miranda replayed on CSS a while back.  He may be bigger, but that's it.

That would be something if that parlay hit, I don't think you would soon forget it.  It would be bad for me though.

So how was Vegas?  Did the fight and atmosphere live up to your expectations, win any money out there?
 
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Posted: #27
Hey Fullbrights, I respect your analysis of the plays, of course.  Regarding Wlad-Sultan, I guess that I'm just never gonna get sucked into the Wlad camp, and I think that Sultan is quick enough to cause him problems.  He could even hurt Wlad at some points.  I don't see Sultan standing still long enough to get hit flush too often...Now that you said Alfaro, you've created some kind of dissonance with my cognitive recall of his name (scrolling upwards -- got it: Varela).  Honestly, it's more of a speculative play for me, as I haven't seen Varela.  I'm just unimpressed with Gutierrez, and I think he's favored by too much in this one.  I'd have it more like -300, +250.  I feel like the dog's worth a shot since I don't see him getting overpowered, and Gutierrez doesn't have the hand speed to "outclass" him in the ring.  When you put all the factors together, I see it as a nice small play at +450.

Honestly, the fight in Vegas kinda sucked.  I had won some $$ on soccer and college basketball during the day, and I threw it on the KP KO prop, so that might've affected my sentiments.  Shoulda just hit KP at -170 since that was nice value on a guy who really only had a 5-10% chance of losing (he'd have to get caught and hurt like in the last fight, coupled with Taylor piling up some rounds during a recovery).  Regardless, the fight atmosphere was dull once it got started as everyone was waiting for some action that never materialized.  Of the three recent fights I've been to (Morales-Diaz, Cotto-Judah, and this), I'd say that this one was a distant third.
 
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Posted: #28
Sultan is the play
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:

Hey Fullbrights, I respect your analysis of the plays, of course.  Regarding Wlad-Sultan, I guess that I'm just never gonna get sucked into the Wlad camp, and I think that Sultan is quick enough to cause him problems.  He could even hurt Wlad at some points.  I don't see Sultan standing still long enough to get hit flush too often...Now that you said Alfaro, you've created some kind of dissonance with my cognitive recall of his name (scrolling upwards -- got it: Varela).  Honestly, it's more of a speculative play for me, as I haven't seen Varela.  I'm just unimpressed with Gutierrez, and I think he's favored by too much in this one.  I'd have it more like -300, +250.  I feel like the dog's worth a shot since I don't see him getting overpowered, and Gutierrez doesn't have the hand speed to "outclass" him in the ring.  When you put all the factors together, I see it as a nice small play at +450.

Honestly, the fight in Vegas kinda sucked.  I had won some $$ on soccer and college basketball during the day, and I threw it on the KP KO prop, so that might've affected my sentiments.  Shoulda just hit KP at -170 since that was nice value on a guy who really only had a 5-10% chance of losing (he'd have to get caught and hurt like in the last fight, coupled with Taylor piling up some rounds during a recovery).  Regardless, the fight atmosphere was dull once it got started as everyone was waiting for some action that never materialized.  Of the three recent fights I've been to (Morales-Diaz, Cotto-Judah, and this), I'd say that this one was a distant third.


Nothing wrong with disagreeing on Sultan.  I have been one of Wlad's biggest critics; Bigeiii can tell you, but Sultan I really don't think Sultan will give him much of a go.

You are correct my friend, that was a brain fart on my part.  I misspoke and named Varela's lightweight countrymen instead.  You may be right, could be some value, but I didn't see much of anything in the Miranda fight from him besides durability.

Soccer?  I couldn't make a decent soccer play if you put a gun to my head.  Call me an ignorant American.  I've haven't made the Vegas trip yet, look forward to the day that I do.  Where did you stay?  I bet that atmosphere for Cotto-Judah was special.  The Taylor fans seemed to be a lot more vocal than Pavlik supporters at the fight.
 
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Posted: #30
Cotto-Judah was an awesome atmosphere.  Everyone stood the whole time, and it helped that we witnessed an all-action fight.

It's surprising the Taylor fans were more vocal considering that the Pavlik fans outnumbered them 2-1...We stayed at the Venetian.  There were 6 of us, and we split adjoining suites, which were quite posh.  It was definitely a rowdy, fun time.  Venetian's pretty nice, but I'd recommend Mandalay Bay if you go with your wife.  My girl is fine staying at Mandalay the whole time without leaving the hotel -- it just seems more spread out and classier than the Venetian.  Then again, if you're there with a bunch of dudes, Venetian is more of a party atmosphere, and it's on the opposite end of the Strip, where there's a bit more of a lively atmosphere...For sportsbooks, the Wynn is probably the nicest, but it takes significant wagers to get drink tickets out of them.  The new Planet Hollywood hotel has a good sportsbook, and they give out drink tickets for every $10 you wager.  That's unbeatable nowadays...Bring your computer if you go, as the books just don't offer odds on anything except the "major" fights.

Soccer's actually got some significant value on the over/under's, especially since it's not bet heavily by the American public.  And we made some $$ on a Manchester United -.5 (+115) over a very injured Arsenal squad.  News of these injuries just doesn't infiltrate the betting books the way it does with the major sports.  Man U. won 4-0.
 
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Posted: #31
on the Gamboa under.

We have a star in the making in the Cuban.
 
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Posted: #32
YuriG was cracking good. But I gotta type, it did not look like he was fully wound up on that stoppage Right shot. I expect that was a low 4th gear at best for him, & I  wanna see more. But he knew he knocked a long 3-iron stiff, right in the screws, right in the sweet-spot.

But again, I do need to see more than 90whatever seconds; no matter how impressive they were.


bigeiii
 
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Posted: #33
Bigeiii:  Be glad that Bravo didn't have any stamina at 160 and had to quit on his stool.  Ornelas's chin is still crap.  Bravo got screwed out of KD in the 1st and then got an official one in the 4th and had Ornelas hurt pretty bad.  After the 4th he gave out and Enrique almost had him out a couple of times.  Ornelas is not a fighter that you want to bet on as a heavy favorite.  LOL, Ornelas just said post fight that he wanted Pavlik; that's the funniest thing I have heard any while.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

Bigeiii:  Be glad that Bravo didn't have any stamina at 160 and had to quit on his stool.  Ornelas's chin is still crap.  Bravo got screwed out of KD in the 1st and then got an official one in the 4th and had Ornelas hurt pretty bad.  After the 4th he gave out and Enrique almost had him out a couple of times.  Ornelas is not a fighter that you want to bet on as a heavy favorite.  LOL, Ornelas just said post fight that he wanted Pavlik; that's the funniest thing I have heard any while.


Am I in 1st grade again?
 
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Posted: #35
KP? What does he want to do w/ KP? Fight? Ahhhhhh, that's dum'.

Yah; I'm pretty glad about that. I'm reading the reports, Enrique reads like he rallied well enough, made Bravo pull the white flag out. But those KD's are kill shot vs. KP.

RG was better than I expected. Nice head shots throughout. My Total got beat, but all three Parlays live until tomorrow. I had it 8-1-1. I kept thinking that RG might could get Jose out of there, but he never really put the pedal to the metal. Which was good enough, & maybe he did tire a tad? Yet again, I need a closing Saturday. Be nice to tab one.


bigeiii
 
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Posted: #36
Fullbrights, any outcome on Brinks yet? May not tip-off for another few hrs. I'm catching up on ZZZZZZ's in a few.

TIA if you can.
bigeiii
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

Fullbrights, any outcome on Brinks yet? May not tip-off for another few hrs. I'm catching up on ZZZZZZ's in a few.

TIA if you can.
bigeiii


Sorry I didn't get back to you post-fight, taking care of a wife in pain; she had a septoplasty this morning and also had her tonsils removed.

If you are still awake, I think that it will probably be a while before we get a result.  I mean it's only 8:50 out there.  You have to think the Brinkley fight goes off around 10:00 at the earliest since it's not on TV and they don't have to cater to any east coasters.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

KP? What does he want to do w/ KP? Fight? Ahhhhhh, that's dum'.

Yah; I'm pretty glad about that. I'm reading the reports, Enrique reads like he rallied well enough, made Bravo pull the white flag out. But those KD's are kill shot vs. KP.

RG was better than I expected. Nice head shots throughout. My Total got beat, but all three Parlays live until tomorrow. I had it 8-1-1. I kept thinking that RG might could get Jose out of there, but he never really put the pedal to the metal. Which was good enough, & maybe he did tire a tad? Yet again, I need a closing Saturday. Be nice to tab one.


bigeiii


Yeah, Ornelas is obviously delusional.  His chin has proven to be very unstable even against non-punchers.

Not the dreaded even round Bigeiii, come on man.  I was with the majority and had it 8-2 Gutierrez.  Like I said, Varela is bigger, but that's about it.  That was the same durable Varela that I saw against Miranda and it was his durability that gave him his best shot to catch a tired Gutierrez late.  Another two rounds may have given us Gutierrez backers some scary moments, Richard was exhausted in that humidity.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:

Cotto-Judah was an awesome atmosphere.  Everyone stood the whole time, and it helped that we witnessed an all-action fight.

It's surprising the Taylor fans were more vocal considering that the Pavlik fans outnumbered them 2-1...We stayed at the Venetian.  There were 6 of us, and we split adjoining suites, which were quite posh.  It was definitely a rowdy, fun time.  Venetian's pretty nice, but I'd recommend Mandalay Bay if you go with your wife.  My girl is fine staying at Mandalay the whole time without leaving the hotel -- it just seems more spread out and classier than the Venetian.  Then again, if you're there with a bunch of dudes, Venetian is more of a party atmosphere, and it's on the opposite end of the Strip, where there's a bit more of a lively atmosphere...For sportsbooks, the Wynn is probably the nicest, but it takes significant wagers to get drink tickets out of them.  The new Planet Hollywood hotel has a good sportsbook, and they give out drink tickets for every $10 you wager.  That's unbeatable nowadays...Bring your computer if you go, as the books just don't offer odds on anything except the "major" fights.

Soccer's actually got some significant value on the over/under's, especially since it's not bet heavily by the American public.  And we made some $$ on a Manchester United -.5 (+115) over a very injured Arsenal squad.  News of these injuries just doesn't infiltrate the betting books the way it does with the major sports.  Man U. won 4-0.


It may have been because Pavlik fans came into the fight expecting an easy night and Taylor fans had more of a reason to get excited.  Any celeb sightings?

Thanks for the Vegas tips, you know your stuff.  I don't think I could leave my wife behind, she likes slots too much.  Yeah, I have heard that many of the smaller fights aren't offered out there.

Are you a big soccer fan?  I got into the last World Cup, but I don't think I could watch it on a regular basis when there is less at stake.
 
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Posted: #40
The even Round does not scare me, as it does most others. S.I. had a piece on how to score a fight b4 Holy vs. The Grill Meister himself 20 odd years ago. When it doubt, it at least does not reward the wrong guy was their gist, I agry.

That typed.............finally, broke the 2 week seal, as Brinks closed out a Parlay! In fine fashion it reads as well. Not sure I know what to do w/ Boxing Profits anymore? Been January since I got some.


bigeiii
 
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Posted: #41
sultan
 
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Posted: #42
I added Sultan+24.5 points at near even money. Which covers a Sultan Decision, Sultan KO, & a decent sized Wlad Decision. I read BOXEO's crew, & GH's & a couple of other previews saying that Sultan will just try to take Wlad into the deep waters & let Stamina beat Wlad. Not the worst strategic idea, though Wlads range-finder lead-jab may have a tactical say in that. Parlayed w/ the UP on my Hokies in at 20 points bought.

So that's 2 old January Parlays closing on Wlad (at twice as bad a price from back then, I might add). One Wlad ITD w/ Duddy & AA Still pending. The above fade on Sultan for 1.5 units. One Parlay from last nite closing on AA. All plays not specifying are 1 unit, if I go up/down on that...I'll tell yah.

bigeiii
 
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Posted: #43
Klitschko is under -300 on matchbook. This is an incredible value in my view. I do not see how so many can be backing Ibrag striaght up.
 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

I added Sultan+24.5 points at near even money. Which covers a Sultan Decision, Sultan KO, & a decent sized Wlad Decision. I read BOXEO's crew, & GH's & a couple of other previews saying that Sultan will just try to take Wlad into the deep waters & let Stamina beat Wlad. Not the worst strategic idea, though Wlads range-finder lead-jab may have a tactical say in that.

That's what I was thinking of doing actually. . .

I think if Sultan can make it past the first few rounds, and not get blasted, he could take a few rounds from Wlad deep in the fight.

Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:



Yeah, Ornelas is obviously delusional.  His chin has proven to be very unstable even against non-punchers.

Not the dreaded even round Bigeiii, come on man.  I was with the majority and had it 8-2 Gutierrez.  Like I said, Varela is bigger, but that's about it.  That was the same durable Varela that I saw against Miranda and it was his durability that gave him his best shot to catch a tired Gutierrez late.  Another two rounds may have given us Gutierrez backers some scary moments, Richard was exhausted in that humidity.


Great call on Varela.  Once I saw that him throw those slow-mo jabs, I knew I didn't have a shot.  Gutierrez may not have the fastest handspeed, but he looked like PBF when you watched him relative to Varela.
 
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Posted: #47
i took wlad by dec. +350 5 units, by ko -150 and ml 10 units each
 
sultan by dec. +1100 & ml +300 5 units each
 
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Posted: #48
Unfocused Wlad, waking up in a tent!?! TMI. Too much outside stuff???

GLA!
bigeiii
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

I added Sultan+24.5 points at near even money. Which covers a Sultan Decision, Sultan KO, & a decent sized Wlad Decision. I read BOXEO's crew, & GH's & a couple of other previews saying that Sultan will just try to take Wlad into the deep waters & let Stamina beat Wlad. Not the worst strategic idea, though Wlads range-finder lead-jab may have a tactical say in that. Parlayed w/ the UP on my Hokies in at 20 points bought.

So that's 2 old January Parlays closing on Wlad (at twice as bad a price from back then, I might add). One Wlad ITD w/ Duddy & AA Still pending. The above fade on Sultan for 1.5 units. One Parlay from last nite closing on AA. All plays not specifying are 1 unit, if I go up/down on that...I'll tell yah.

bigeiii

 

Hey Big, I really think that is the best bet for Sultan. WK can punch, there is no way Sultan wants to be at the end of a WK right hand.

 
 
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Posted: #50
Paying +115 as well. That's not too shabby, for all the outcomes that Line will respond favorably to. Thx BOXEO; &  keep up the nice work.

bigeiii
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