Weekend Picks (2/22-2/23)

2008: -11.78 units

It's been a really bad start to the year, but hopefully the weekend in Vegas rejuvenated the systems, and a good run is on the horizon.

Wladmir Klitschko vs. Sultan Ibragimov
Ibragimov By Decision (+1400)
0.2 unit

This is an admitted longshot, but it seems as though boxing towards a decision victory should be Ibragimov's fight plan.  At 220 lbs, Ibragimov is light for a heavyweight, and his quick footwork can be an asset against bigger opponents.  Although Klitschko definitely has fearsome power, Emanuel Steward has made him into a predictable fighter with an outside-jabbing style that prevents opponents from coming in, where they might inflict damage on Klitschko's fragile chin.  Ibragimov will be the best boxer that Klitschko's faced during his recent winning streak, and a countering, in-and-out style could confound Klitschko early.  The most analogous opponent for Klitschko would be Calvin Brock, as Brock's technically-sound style served him well until he got caught in the 7th.  But Ibragimov is a better boxer than Brock, and he has a sturdy-enough chin to take a few shots from Klitschko's heavy right hands.  I'm selecting the decision prop because I don't see Ibragimov as having a powerful enough shot to take down Klitschko.  Klitschko's had problems with big punchers like Sanders, Brewster, and Williamson --- Ibragimov doesn't really have that kind of power.  Instead, he has the ability to give Klitschko problems in a different sort of manner.

You must like the over as well?

Yes, but I'm waiting for the odds to get a bit more favorable.  I think that more action will be on the under as the fight approaches.

Or, you could take a "Fight Goes the Distance" prop at +230.  If you take the decision on each guy, you should be better than 1-1.  The decision prop on Ibragimov is down to 12-1, and Klitschko decision is at +350.   So, you could go 1 unit on Klitschko by decision, and .25 on Ibragimov.  You'd net 3.25 units if Klitschko wins a decision, and 2 units if Ibragimov wins a decision. 

Adding:

Over 9.5 (+180)
1 unit

I'm referencing the Ibragimov-Klitschko fight, of course.

I'm on Wlad, & Wlad ITD. Interesting UP plays & Decisions, for 2 heavyweights that are both know to have Stamina issues & one has a very questionable Chin. Sultan has also be felled.

So I'd lean towards a LOW. But I'm comfortable with what I've got. Nervy, b/c it is after all my boy Wlad with his Jim Morrison caliber "...fraggile eggshell..." Chin. My take is Wlad's offense is off, vs. the Southpaw who fights well moving backwards. But eventually Wlad's pathfinder lead Left Jab finds its range. 6-10th round TKO for Wlad, though Wlad might trail on the scorecards early.

GLA!
bigeiii

Regarding Sultan's knockdown vs. Ray Austin, that actually deserves some explanation.  Sultan was trying to make the fight, and he walked into the punch.  Sultan got up, and won the next two rounds, which proves that he doesn't need a long time to recuperate from a big shot...Also, Sultan's improved since that 2006 fight, and he'll be more careful against Klitschko.  I think that Sultan knows that he has to counter in order to be effective. If he tries to initiate the action, he's taking too big of a risk of getting felled by a monster right hand.

Interesting that Wlad cut 6 lbs for this fight?

Though I like that, tells me he is no less conditioned, & prolly no less stiff in lateral terms for it, which should help him deal with a tactical non-Power house mover/puncher/counterpucher guy like Sultan.

GLA!
bigeiii

Thanks man. . . I haven't gotten into breaking any of the odds down yet since I figured if anything was going to change it would be to my benefit, so much appreciated

There seems to have been a lot of action on the over over the last few days.

I kinda like the RG odds where they are for FNF's. I expected -400 to -500. JDudddddy and AA as a Lefty vs. a questionable Chin in a 3way Parlay.

GLA!
bigeiii

Bigeiii, you disappeared last week.  No post Saturday night thoughts? 
How about that card in Mijares-Navarro?  Worst ever IMO.

Blew out a harddrive & a CDrom in the wind here. So I shut it down until late Tue. until I got a new backup battery in. No sense is pushing that bad position.

I thought JT made a very competitive showing. I had it 6-6. It took a minor KP comeback to do that. The 1 dissenting opinion? Yah; that dude is on drugs, drunk & getting sex from Jose. I still wonder if that was a revered scorecard or a 1 in the wrong place, or whatever? No way any1 could be that discredible.

I agry on your Parlay in the other thread. Not as high on Barker, but I kan't pick against him either.

GLA!
bigeiii

Computer problems suck.  6-6 is too close by me, but I guess if you gave the benefit of the doubt to Taylor throughout the fight it's possible, anything in Taylor's favor is way off.

Apparently Doug Tucker is.  He must have been in the bathroom scoring the fight with a rough case of diarrhea.

I've seen Barker once (in his last fight), he doesn't have too much pop, but he's got a nice skill set.  I've seen Bendall twice against Dann a while back and then against Elcock more recently.  Bendall has even less pop and I think he calls it a career after losing a wide decision here.

Yuriorkis Gamboa vs. Johnnie Edwards
Under 7.5 (-120)
1.2 units

This one has the makings of a relatively short night for Gamboa, the rising superstar from Cuba.  He's strung together seven straight KO's, with his longest fight lasting six rounds, and that was against tough Brazilian Adailton de Jesus.  The way Gamboa imposed his will on such a competent fighter tells me that he's destined for big things.  Meanwhile, I see Edwards as a notch below de Jesus; Edwards couldn't even win a round against Elio Rojas last March.  While Rojas is a good boxer, he doesn't have much power, so it's not a big surprise that he couldn't take Edwards out.  However, this indicates that Edwards will also be outclassed by Gamboa, and that should mean a short night once Edwards begins to repeatedly eat Gamboa's powerful blows.  I was hoping for the line to be set at 5.5 rounds or better, and I got my wish with the 7.5 priced at -120 on both sides. 

Thomas Ulrich vs. Yuri Barashian
Barashian (+550)
0.4 unit

I'm fading the 32-year-old former light-heavyweight contender.  Ulrich never really stepped up in his big fights, which is probably a result of a talent gap between himself and the elite fighters in the division.  Now, he's on the downside of his career and being tabbed as a prohibitive favorite against 28-year-old Barashian, who has strung together 18 straight wins since losing a decision to Robert Stieglitz in 2003.  Although I've never seen Barashian, I'm impressed with his record and KO ability (16 stoppages in 24 fights).  Thus, I feel as though a small play at these odds is a prudent investment, especially when no one in the boxing world would be shocked to see the favorite lose.

Richard Gutierrez vs. Jose Varela
Varela (+450)
0.4 unit

I like the odds and situation here for the bigger fighter (Varela) coming in on short notice.  Gutierrez looked lackluster against Luciano Perez, which sapped the momentum from his fourth-round KO of a faded version of Teddy Reid.  And two years ago, Gutierrez barely beat journeyman Hicklet Lau, who had gotten KO'd in four rounds by the technically flawed (yet powerful) Joel Julio.  Gutierrez's ordinary showings against Lau and Perez are likely more indicative of his abilities, as I think the boxing world overrated him following the KO win over Reid.  Meanwhile, 30-year-old Varela has been on a run of five straight wins (and three straight KO's).  Varela's been doing this work at junior middleweight, so he's used to a slightly bigger fighter than Gutierrez.  Also, we can safely assume that Gutierrez won't overpower Varela, as Varela lasted 12 rounds against the ferocious Edison Miranda in a middleweight bout.  Although Varela was KO'd by Marco Antonio Rubio in 2003, I'm not concerned for two reasons: (1) that was over 4 years ago, and (2) Gutierrez likely would've been dealt the same fate had he faced Rubio at 154.  Varela's going to be the stronger man in this fight, and I can see him pressuring Gutierrez.  With this bout being fought at 150, it's very possible that Varela's size advantage could lead to him eventually imposing his will on Gutierrez, as I don't think Gutierrez has the counter-punching ability or hand speed that would be needed to earn Varela's respect. 

The other way is worthy of discussion as well A2C. Could Jose be undertrained on 2 weeks? That was my knee-Rx to this. But I do follow what you are saying, that Lau fight was just not impressive. So I tried a LOW on this one as well. Jose is bigger, but where is Jose's training? This accounts for both possilbe training ends.

GLA!
bigeiii

That's true about the possible training deficiency, but I'm operating under the assumption that he'll be ready to go.  He did fight 3 times in 2007, including late November, so I'm thinking that he has a regular training regimen.  He'd be a fool to take this fight if he wasn't ready, as he'd look silly on national TV.

And a fun one:

Barker (-600), Varela (+450), Barashian (+550), Ibragimov (+300)
4-leg Parlay (+16600)
.05 unit (to win 8.3 units)

Also worth noting in re: to FNF's RG & YG are the homefield fighters. In FLA, that has made a diff' before. Though neither appears to be a Warriors signee, maybe this is their audition?

Enrique w/ a nice size/weight edge at Middleweight as well. So I threw him in w/ the above heavy chalk.

Just looked at the Wald Sultan stills. Wald really does look fitter, & of course he's still gonna bring his trip-hammer lead-Jab.

GLA!
bigeiii