Posted:
#76
What u think bout this Hernandez vs Rodriguez fight tonite??
Boxing Picks
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by plike112:
What u think bout this Hernandez vs Rodriguez fight tonite??
What u think bout this Hernandez vs Rodriguez fight tonite??
Sorry didn't see this, but I had no play on it anyway.
So won .75 on MK/CF, lost the same on LM/LP and won .727 on Bellew over. Into the teens for +13.197 Rounded down in the past so I'm going to just call that 13.2
Posted:
#78
Back from a little Urpeen vacation. I like Gavin to outclass Vassell. Gavin gets underrated because he doesn't care about blowing guys out. He fights controlled and to win. He'll do it again here and hopefully cut through all of Vassell's rough stuff and not get cut by butts.
2 to win w.
Posted:
#81
Gonna take the +120 on Nathan Cleverly. Kovalev is skilled and obviously punches like a monster, but Cleverly can be slippery and I think is more skilled and is much more experienced. If it goes to decision, Cleverly will have thrown more punches by a lot, fighting in Wales. Clev could get the KO on conditioning if Kovalev punches himself out. Obviously, Kovalev could get a KO too. If it happens, it happens.
1 @ +120 to win 1.2
Posted:
#88
Sorry for not replying, guys Sometimes the threads here look like there are no new replies when there are.
Texas, you really should get another book. 5d is the only US facing one with good boxing options, but they have excellent ones. Only problem is that I feel their oddsmakers are sharper than overseas a lot of the time, but we have to make do.
I think now is the time to hit Manny P -450. I don't see how it gets better than that, and it's surprising to me how long that number's been around. I don't see how Rios deals with Manny's speed, agility and barrages of punches. We know Top Rank put a lot of thought into Manny's next fight and need badly for him to win. And if it does go to the cards, I imagine the judges will know that they are voting on whether or not to inject tens of millions more into the boxing industry. So I see layers of security here. Tempted to play it even harder but I'll stick with:
Many to beat Rios: 7 units @ -450 to win 1.55
Posted:
#89
Geale to decision Barker. Geal is the better athlete, the slicker boxer and, most importantly, has a significantly higher work rate. It's going to be hard for Barker to overcome that. But Geale probably doesn't have the power to stop him. Also like Barker's promoter coming right out and saying they want to take the belt back to England and milk it for cash. That's not going to win any friends.
1 to win 1.05.
Posted:
#90
Busy weekend. Just a pick based on boxrec records here. One guy has never been KOed and has 9 KOs in 49 wins. The other has a decent KO rate, only been stopped by JuanMa and PDL. Also a TD and a DQ on his record. Don't see how the price can be right.
Saucedo/Medina ovr 9.5 -180
1.8 to win 1.
Posted:
#91
Lost 1.5 on the recent run, though in real life I lost a lot more than that on Geale. At +12.8 .
I'm on Floyd in a lot of different ways, but the single best bet might be Floyd by 12 rd Dec, -145. 1.45 to win 1.
Smith Molina is going over. -420 be damned. Tempting to go for broke here, but I'm a bit cold and don't want to get into chasing mode. 2.1 to win .5.
Posted:
#92
+1.5 on the Floyd card. Back to +13.3.
.5 to win 1.2 on Tavoris Cloud +240. Simple public fade. Tavoris lost as a favorite to Hopkins, who looked better than many expected. Adonis landed a big punch on Dawson, when Dawson may not have really been at the best point in his career. We knew Stevenson had one punch power, but we're dazzled by it anyway. Voila, two guys who probably aren't that far apart are priced very far apart.
I'll be delighted if Stevenson loses anyway, given that he used to beat and rape underage girls. Might as well sweeten the pot.
Posted:
#93
Been too busy to do this much. However, I already capped Trout/Lara before. I got Trout by decision. His ability to move without giving ground could make Lara look like a runner. I expect judging to favor Trout anyway, in case it's close. Lara will need to rely on his power, which could come through, of course. But hopefully Trout wins the territorial and volume battles to take it in 12.
Trout Dec. +160. 1 to win 1.6
"Sturm in Germany" doesn't mean what it once did. Barker showed more than I thought he had against Geale. I got destroyed on that fight, but he earned some respect from me. Now, I think Barker and Hearn see a fight that will look great on the resume, but a fighter who is on his way to retirement.
Barker Dec +145 1 to win 1.45.
Posted:
#95
Down a couple to 12.35.
I don't have time to really sit around working on all these fights anymore, but I am still playing the big ones if I think there's some value, In the case off tomorrow's fight. I think it goes the distance something like 75% of the time, if not more. Bradley has been kind enough to demonstrate that he's nearly unstoppable. It would be a shock if he stopped Manny. Meanwhile, Manny's days as a KO artist seem to be past. We'll probably see a repeat, with Bradley working skillfully and consistently and many unleashing dominant bursts of activity. Neither a recipe for a stoppage. Of course, it is boxing...
2.45 at -245 to win 1 on Fight Goes The Distance.
Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by Boxscout:
Down a couple to 12.35.
Down a couple to 12.35.
I don't have time to really sit around working on all these fights anymore, but I am still playing the big ones if I think there's some value, In the case off tomorrow's fight. I think it goes the distance something like 75% of the time, if not more. Bradley has been kind enough to demonstrate that he's nearly unstoppable. It would be a shock if he stopped Manny. Meanwhile, Manny's days as a KO artist seem to be past. We'll probably see a repeat, with Bradley working skillfully and consistently and many unleashing dominant bursts of activity. Neither a recipe for a stoppage. Of course, it is boxing...
2.45 at -245 to win 1 on Fight Goes The Distance.
not clear what your pick is here
Posted:
#97
Sorry man, I thought that was pretty clear. 2.45 to win 1. The play was Fight Goes the Distance at -245.
+1 taking us to +13.35.
Someone said Floyd has been talking up the KO. If so, god bless him. I bet the crap out of Floyd by Dec at -188. Thought the ship had sailed at -215 (still not terrible) and now it's -157.
Look, Maidana's never been stopped. The guy, like Bradley, is not stopping even if he gets dropped hard. It will take a sustained, relentless attack. Floyd isn't doing that. Boxing is only part of a bigger game for him. The object of that game is to retire at 50-0, with a gazzilion dollars and with as little damage to his mind and body as possible. He'll be quite content to coast to a dominating win without taking any big punches or risking a return of his hand injuries. It's the smart thing to do and he's the smartest fighter there is.
3 units on Floyd by decision at -157 to win 1.91 units.
In reality, I mixed in a bit on floyd to win ANY decision at -170, just in case something crazy happens since, in reality, I'm betting way more on this than proper BR management would dictate.
Posted:
#99
I'm stuck at home for a while so I'm gonna do a few more. That last Floyd win brings us up to 15.26. Maybe we can make 20!
5d has a nice line on George Groves -140 to beat Badu Jack. Jack is good, but I don't think he has the stopping power to exploit Grove's chin, which isn't horrible, but is a vulnerability. Therefore, I think Groves wins on volume. He has the ability to throw more in general, and he has a greater diversity of punches, so he should find more situations. Won't be a walk in the park, but he should get there.
I don't worry about this stuff TOO much but this is also kind of a must win for Groves, where Jack has already exceeded expectations.
Anyway, 1.4 to win 1.
Posted:
#100
Klit/Fury under. +125 on 5d
This used to be +135 and, if you are in Vegas, William Hill has it +130. I think it should be more like +100.
Wlad by KO is around +100. I think he gets it done.If he does it will probably be sooner just because that's how it is, but also because fighting Fury is exhausting as he hangs his massive body all over you.
I normally back Fury but I think his lack of focus can be a problem here. He's a bit sloppy, which he can get away with as a giant, normally. But Wlad should exploit these things, and it is a giant step up in class.
The reason it's as close as it is, is that Wlad's struggled to stop huge guys before. But it doesn't look like Tyson's chin is his strong point.
Plus, there is the chance of Fury getting the stoppage. He isn't a HUGE dog, and he can punch and we Wlad ain't called Dr. Iron Chin.
Then there's a tiny bit extra value from random boxing crap like injuries, quitting, etc.
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