Posted:
#26
martinez +150
Boxing Picks
Posted:
#27
Loss on the broken nose was kind of a tough one, as was the Adamek/Cunningham decision. So I'm pretty happy to be up, even if it is +.5 units.
Tonight, risking 2.2 to win 1 on Dzinziruk and Vera going over.
Neither has a big power. Dzinziruk has moved up in weight.
Vera has a big skill deficit.
Neither has shown a particularly weak chin. Feel like this should be -400.
Posted:
#28
Well, I guess the gambling gods heard my bitching and decided to smile upon me. Got this one with about 20 seconds to spare. Very surprised that DZ let Vera get to him that early.
+1.5
Tonight taking Matthysse and Dallas over (again!) 7.5 at +185. I think Dallas will be able to run and potshot Lucas, and do some nullification in close for a few rounds. As Lucas figures him out, it will be a race to the over, just like last night. Except this time we'll have plus money.
,9 to win 1.6
Throwing the remaining .1 on a draw. I like Matthysse, obviously. However, I'm enough of a gambler that I can't pass up +7000 in a match where the dog is a decent fighter and the styles are opposite.
.1 to win 7
Posted:
#33
Keeps going down. I mean, I know it is going to distort my record one way or the other, but in real life I'm going to boom or bust on this one. I bet more.. wish I knew that Mudnine fans were THIS delusional. Could have gotten way better prices on many of my bets.
2.6 units to win 1 more on Geale.
Posted:
#36
Easy win! Hope you all did well. +3 total is +3.5
Cory Spinks and Carlos Molina over 8.5 -145. We've got two featherfisted slicksters, neither an easy out and it's a critical fight for both.
I got slightly better price in real life, but that line movement is actually kind of encouraging. I thought I smoked the wrong stuff when I first saw it. Was I walking into a trap? Molina has 6 knockouts, and zero knockouts of real, full time pros.
Spinks is a huge dog and has no power either.
I'll take it. If Spinks has some injury I don't know about or whatever, so be it.
1.45 to win 1.
Posted:
#38
Having seen the weigh ins and so forth, going to make it a full unit on Botha. He's taking this one seriously, which removes a lot of concern. Line's back up to +130. Was hoping it might go even higher before the match, but maybe all the delusional rugby fans are still stinging from Mundine. So 1 to win 1.3.
FWIW, I did bet on the other rugby player fighting a car insurance salesman making his pro debut. Very small bet, no longer available. Just so nobody thinks I'm rugbyphobic.
Posted:
#39
Well, if you didn't hear, that was some pretty blatant cheating.
https://www.sport24.co.za/OtherSport/Francois-Botha-fumes-in-defeat-20130208
-1
I'll admit, Sonny Bill impressed me and did better than I thought. But, obviously Botha had a 12 round game plan that was working. So the ref simply declared it would be a 10 round match mid-fight. No kidding.
0-3 on controversies. We're still at +3.5. Maybe the next one goes our way.
Saturday: Miskirtchian vs. Evensen
Over at -260. Know I've been hitting overs a lot, but that's just what's been coming. Between the two of them, these guys have had a KO of any kind in only 29% of their fights. That alone almost gives us what we need.
Add to that that neither man has ever been KOed, though each has lost twice. And even if there is a KO, it could come after 9.5 rounds.
I did actually look at them. They are both volume punchers and if a KO does come, it should be by accumulation. So again, we could still win the bet.
In limited footage, it looked to me like Evenson was the better fighter. They have similar volume but Evenson moves better and has some defense. I saw him at -280 and he's been bet down to -140, so I think that warrants a small play as well. Evenson also has the better KO record, so it functions as a semi-hedge, but I like the bet in a vacuum.
2.6 to win 1 on over 9.5
.7 to win .5 on Evenson.
Posted:
#40
Not a bad day.
Slightly dodgy stoppage on Evenson, but it's entirely possible he would have lost a decision anyway. Still made .3 on that fight because of the large over bet.
Frampton -530 and the parlay with geale come in which is +3.
FWIW, it seems like pretty much everybody who bet on Botha got their money back. Bet365 and all downunder books. But not 5dimes, which is where I bet it.
Without that, would have been a massive weekend.
Gained 3.3 for a total of +6.8.
So I can generate 2k page views for covers, but I can't make my twitter handle available. That seems reasonable.
Posted:
#41
I'm really just following Dwyer on this one. If you don't know who he is just look for "Dwyer boxing" or something on youtube.
I don't always agree with him but I had just kind of been overlooking this fight and, in this case, he makes a very good argument. I'm probably not going to do the hedging he recommends.
I also am not actually picking Tony Thompson to beat David Price, otherwise, obviously, I'd be making a huge play. But I really think there's value here. Thompson has the size, skill and power to test Price and presents a real step up. Worth a shot for sure.
Tony Thompson +650 over David Price. .25 to win 1.62
Posted:
#42
Hate this. Usually try to be timely with my posts here, but I decided to take a nap and this line moved when I was asleep. I still thing there's some value here, but it's getting thinner. Kendall Holt was +435 at opening, +400 when I posted elswehere and now +350.
There's no real reason to believe me, but that's how it is.
There's no real reason to believe me, but that's how it is.
Anyway, I figured that, in a vacuum, +400 would be about right. Holt has big power, better than has KO record might indicate and is a world class fighter. Lamont Peterson is an excellent fighter, but I wouldn't say he's an elite. With the matchup favoring Peterson stylistically, that seemed about right to me.
However, we've got a couple of things injecting enough uncertainty to make the dog viable. One is that both guys have been off for a while, but Peterson has been off for 14 months. Also, Peterson is coming off a PED bust and might be clean now. If you doubt the difference that can make, look at Alistair Overeem's last fight in UFC.
I'll just put .20 on Holt at this price to win .7.
The other nickle goes into a parlay on all these live dogs. Holt +350/Thompson +650/Fernando Guerrero +525. .05 to win 10.49.
Posted:
#43
Another little bet on the dog. With the classier Delvin Rogriguez coming off of a defeat that must have been mentally defeating, and stepping into the ring against a guy with a decent punch, AND moving up to a completely new weight, I don't think he deserves to be this kind of favorite.
George Tahdooahnippah .2 to win 1.2 at +600.
Posted:
#45
Malik Scott over Glazkov, 1 to win 1.45. Was at a better price earlier, but it's trending down and this price is fine.
These guys are about equal, but Glazkov just had the big win on TV so people are on him. Plus many are unimpressed with Scott's "boring" style. But the reason it can be boring is that he is so good, he can control and easily win fights from the outside without ever being in danger.
Glazkov will test him. It'll be a close fight from round 3 or 4 onward, but I think Scott is a huge favorite in the early rounds as Glazkov figures out how to handle his style. It's possible that he won't and Scott will control most of the fight. And we're getting + money, so I think it's a pretty nice spot.
This one's a lot like Adamek/Cunningham, including the fact that Main Events is promoting it in they NY area and Glazkov is their boy. If we knew the judging would be fair, I'd make this a bigger play. But, as it is, I'll put one unit out there and hope for the best.
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by Boxscout:
This one's a lot like Adamek/Cunningham, including the fact that Main Events is promoting it in they NY area and Glazkov is their boy. If we knew the judging would be fair, I'd make this a bigger play. But, as it is, I'll put one unit out there and hope for the best.
Aaaannnnnnd guess what happens? As others have already discussed, a blatant robbery. Maybe we should count our lucky stars for getting a draw when most had Scott 7-3.
Should listen to my own advice more on these robbery alerts. Anyway, down .83 on this last run. +5.97 overall.
Let's throw .25 on Matt Hatton to win 1. Van Heerden opened at -260 and shot north of -600. I expect him to win, but the guy has major defensive problems at Hatton's not a bad puncher.
Posted:
#47
Bogere and Abril over 10.5 at -180.
I don't think either's been down. Neither has been out. Abril is favored and lacks power. It's going to be an awkward matchup with lots of fight for position and inside spoiling, raising the specter of a headbutt. Still, some shops have this at -275. -180 is a nice price...
2 to win 1.11
Posted:
#48
6 to win 1.87 on Hatton van Heerden over. Van Heerden's become a huge favorite and that dude is just never, never stopping Hatton barring some sort of injury.
I think there's an outside shot of Hatton stopping van Heerden, but our Hatton bet gives us back a fraction of our losings if that happens. Seems unlikely to me though, as I've seen van Heerden take some big punches easily and Hatton is not a devastating puncher.
Posted:
#50
1.5 to win .5 on Magomed Abdusalamov vs. Bisbal going under 5.5 @ -300
Mogo has NEVER had a fight go over this number. He's been hurt and down and Bisbal looks decent to me and has a good KO rate himself, so there's that bonus.
Both have a hunting style, looking to land big shots and get the KO. I'll be unpleasantly surprised if they both miss for 5.5 rounds.
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