Posted:
#51
Add .5 to win 2.75 on Zaveck @ +550.
Boxing Picks
Posted:
#52
Simple analysis. Fury is just too big for Cunningham, which is compounded by his total lack of power against someone like Fury and the fact that Fury himself is mobile and quick enough to chase Cunningham and land enough that the judges will be left with little choice. A parlay filler really, but I’ll say 3 to win .5 at -600.
Bradley by decision -185... I actually tailed a guy on another forum here at -170. Probably still some value at -185. I’d like to get the TD thrown in, which you can outside the US. Oh well.
1.85 to win 1.
Vargas over Omotoso. Both have about the same level of raw ability, but Vargas is so much more polished and has had experience with a much higher level. Plus, Vargas is easily the bigger money maker for Top Rank, who promotes both. Pretty easy bet for me. Tempted to bet even more.
Bradley by decision -185... I actually tailed a guy on another forum here at -170. Probably still some value at -185. I’d like to get the TD thrown in, which you can outside the US. Oh well.
1.85 to win 1.
Vargas over Omotoso. Both have about the same level of raw ability, but Vargas is so much more polished and has had experience with a much higher level. Plus, Vargas is easily the bigger money maker for Top Rank, who promotes both. Pretty easy bet for me. Tempted to bet even more.
4.7 at -235 to win 2
Posted:
#55
I'm not sure why, but 5d had the lines up for these fights in China but took them down. Anyway, if they come back up or you're outside the US, I like Magdaleno and Martinez to go over 9.5 at -250.
Mags is a slick, roided out, mobile athlete who will be hard to stop. Even though his KO rate has improved, it's unlikely that he has the stuff to be the first man to stop Martinez.
Posted:
#57
Housekeeping: I believe we're at +11.44 so far. Not bad, if I don't say so myself.
Tonight, Rico Ramos -165. Betting 2 to win 1.21. Rico doesn't look great when he steps up in class, but this guy looks like someone Rico will be pretty comfortable with. Doesn't have a great record or background. Doesn't look to have the class to cope with Rico's defense. On a lower level athletically, though I've only seen a few rounds of him. Still, a nice bounce back spot for Ramos.
Posted:
#59
Canelo by decision +145, betting to win one unit.
Initially favored Trout, though Canelo throws the bigger punches and will have more moments of being the aggressor, which judges like. I don't like to see a guy like Trout punished for his style, but we see it happen all the time.
In this case, Laurence Cole is one of those judges. He is a well connected ref, whose dad is the head of the Texas athletic commission. He's judged 5 fights in 10 years and they just happened to pick him for this one. Maybe just for the big pay check, but certainly he knows which outcome will make the most money for everyone in the long run.
That's the extra nudge I need for Canelo. If Trout needs to win 9-3 to get a decision, I want to be on the other side. If it's fair, Canelo has a decent shot anyway. Sprinkled in some over and Canelo to win.
Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by Boxscout:
Canelo by decision +145, betting to win one unit.
Canelo by decision +145, betting to win one unit.
Initially favored Trout, though Canelo throws the bigger punches and will have more moments of being the aggressor, which judges like. I don't like to see a guy like Trout punished for his style, but we see it happen all the time.
In this case, Laurence Cole is one of those judges. He is a well connected ref, whose dad is the head of the Texas athletic commission. He's judged 5 fights in 10 years and they just happened to pick him for this one. Maybe just for the big pay check, but certainly he knows which outcome will make the most money for everyone in the long run.
That's the extra nudge I need for Canelo. If Trout needs to win 9-3 to get a decision, I want to be on the other side. If it's fair, Canelo has a decent shot anyway. Sprinkled in some over and Canelo to win.
l.cole is corrupt but he's the ref not a judge in this fight.
Posted:
#62
Hmm. Thanks for the correction. As of yesterday, boxrec had Stanley Christodoulou as the ref and Cole as a judge. Now, the other way around, which makes more sense. Oddly, still only 2 judges listed. Probably good news for Trout. Doesn't seem like a fight where the ref will matter a ton, unless Trout slips and he gets the chance to call it a KD or something. An international judge with good experience over a local yokel.
Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by Boxscout:
Hmm. Thanks for the correction. As of yesterday, boxrec had Stanley Christodoulou as the ref and Cole as a judge. Now, the other way around, which makes more sense. Oddly, still only 2 judges listed. Probably good news for Trout. Doesn't seem like a fight where the ref will matter a ton, unless Trout slips and he gets the chance to call it a KD or something. An international judge with good experience over a local yokel.
Hmm. Thanks for the correction. As of yesterday, boxrec had Stanley Christodoulou as the ref and Cole as a judge. Now, the other way around, which makes more sense. Oddly, still only 2 judges listed. Probably good news for Trout. Doesn't seem like a fight where the ref will matter a ton, unless Trout slips and he gets the chance to call it a KD or something. An international judge with good experience over a local yokel.
i just don't see canelo winning this fight. i will conced he';s been improving every fight but he's simply too slow, fights in spurts and doesn't cut the ring off. i feel trout wins an easy UD
Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by Jerseyboy89:
i just don't see canelo winning this fight. i will conced he';s been improving every fight but he's simply too slow, fights in spurts and doesn't cut the ring off. i feel trout wins an easy UD
Very possible. This is a pickem fight imo.. Trout has good odds..
Im leaning canelo tho.. His hand speed is solid and he has very good timing and hits hard as hell.. I think he will do enough to squeak out a decision. When hes in distance of trout he will win thos exhanges for sure, trout will control the outside.. It will be a close fight
Posted:
#65
stanley has pretty much always been fair.
wait for the third judge to be announced. it may be gale van hoye who will juge the fight for canelo. also, cole was suspended and believed to be fight fixing after telling jmm he was ahead on the cards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhfGx7vk12Q
Posted:
#66
Boxscout, jump in every once in a while to help nail down a boxing pick.
Bookmaker only has these upcoming fights listed, will you be looking at these at all...
ZAB JUDAH +440
DANNY GARCIA -590
MARTIN MURRAY +650
SERGIO GABRIEL MARTINEZ -950
ROBERT GUERRERO +500
FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR -800
I'd rather be playing D&D.
Posted:
#67
Well, those odds are favorable for Floyd compared to other places. I probably wouldn't be in a rush for any of those. My biggest play is on Fernando Guerrero to upset Peter Quillen on the Garcia/Judah card. That line might become available to you as well. Write up is earlier in this thread somewhere.
I am betting on Danny Garcia, but by decision. That's +507 at 5d. So if you can get anything like that, I would go for it. Perhaps closer to fight time, they'll put those props up.
General assumption obviously is that Danny will stop Zab. But that is easier said than done. The dude went 12 rounds with Lucas freaking Matthysse just a few fights ago and survived a KD. Everyone remembers the Kostya KO. He was stopped by Khan in a weird scenario and Khan is a blitzer, which Garcia isn't. Cotto got him in the 11th. That's it, in 51 fights. Plus a TD loss on cuts. Danny's looping punch's, especially the hook aren't the most effective tools to use against Zab. I expect Danny's class and money making potential to prevail in the eyes of the judges if it gets there. And I think there's a decent chance it does.
Won 1.5 on Canelo and Fury. Up to 10.94
Posted:
#70
Forgot to say what I bet on Garcia, but, as I posted elsewhere it was half a unit. Lost a unit on Fernando, won 2.53 on Danny so +1.53. Total = +12.47.
Not seeing anything I really like on the Floyd card or this weekend yet. But I like Kessler/Froch to go over at -180 and I like Kessler by decision at +469. In short, I don't think a whole lot has changed since their last match. Froch will be at home and is on a roll, but I think they've adjusted too much for those things. Expect another close one, going to the cards, with Kesser maintaining some tactical edges.
1.8 to win one on the over. .25 to win 1.17 on Kessler by Dec.
Posted:
#71
Quote Originally Posted by Boxscout:
Forgot to say what I bet on Garcia, but, as I posted elsewhere it was half a unit. Lost a unit on Fernando, won 2.53 on Danny so +1.53. Total = +12.47.
Forgot to say what I bet on Garcia, but, as I posted elsewhere it was half a unit. Lost a unit on Fernando, won 2.53 on Danny so +1.53. Total = +12.47.
Not seeing anything I really like on the Floyd card or this weekend yet. But I like Kessler/Froch to go over at -180 and I like Kessler by decision at +469. In short, I don't think a whole lot has changed since their last match. Froch will be at home and is on a roll, but I think they've adjusted too much for those things. Expect another close one, going to the cards, with Kesser maintaining some tactical edges.
1.8 to win one on the over. .25 to win 1.17 on Kessler by Dec.
I have been following this Kessler-Froch fight, from the videos I've seen of Kessler training and the quotes from Kessler trainer, they will try to fight Froch on the inside and go for the KO. I like Kessler in this fight.
Posted:
#72
I figure they'll do the same thing they did last time. Kessler can go down the middle and score freely, especially to the body. When Froch closes up the middle, he's open to wider attacks. Then, he was out of solutions last time.
Still close of course, because Froch can and will get to Kessler too. But I don't think Froch is now a significant favorate.
Posted:
#73
Lucas to beat Lamont late, probably by decision. I think that as a purely physical matchup, it's about 50/50. But Lamont's natural tendencies just aren't such that he'll exploit his advantages to the maximum. For example, he doesn't really like to throw his longest jab. He'll throw it and it'll land but he'll do it less than he could. I think Lucas has some small advantages, for example, Lamont's tendency to give away round 1 and sometimes round 2, and that these will accumulate to a late victory in a competitive match.
So I'll say the over 1.00 @-160 to win .625. LM to win by dec. .25 cents +328 to win .82 cents. LM to win 1.00 -200 to win .50 cents.
Posted:
#74
Lost .75. Blow away by Lucas though. Amazing performance.
Froch/Kessler is already posted above.
Bellew/Chilemba, i'm willing to lay the price on the over. There was what, maybe one instance where a guy was significantly hurt in the first one? Chilemba's not going to abandon his movement this fight. It got him a draw. It would be a shock for him to get the KO. I think Tony will be looking to score, much more than get the KO and lock up the decision... if he can.
2 to win .727
Posted:
#75
Quote Originally Posted by Boxscout:
Lost .75. Blow away by Lucas though. Amazing performance.
Lost .75. Blow away by Lucas though. Amazing performance.
Froch/Kessler is already posted above.
Bellew/Chilemba, i'm willing to lay the price on the over. There was what, maybe one instance where a guy was significantly hurt in the first one? Chilemba's not going to abandon his movement this fight. It got him a draw. It would be a shock for him to get the KO. I think Tony will be looking to score, much more than get the KO and lock up the decision... if he can.
2 to win .727
Good luck. I think the over on this fight is the best bet also.
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