2023 Spanish Grand Prix Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Max Returns to Place of First Victory

Max Verstappen's first-ever F1 victory came right here at the Spanish GP in 2016. Seven years later, he's the defending champ and in the best form of his career — we break down his chances in our Spanish Grand Prix odds below.

Last Updated: Jun 3, 2023 1:29 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Max Verstappen Red Bull Formula 1
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The prestigious Monaco Grand Prix weekend has come and gone, with Max Verstappen surpassing Sebastian Vettel as Red Bull's winningest driver with his victory on Sunday. 

The grid now heads to Barcelona for one of the longest-standing races in the world — the Spanish Grand Prix at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya — on June 4, with Red Bull's Max Verstappen again a huge favorite on the Formula 1 odds board. 

With the grid set, we break it all down in our full Spanish Grand Prix odds below, including betting line reactions, free picks, and more. 

Spanish Grand Prix 2023 odds

Driver Team Odds
Max Verstappen Red Bull -450
Carlos Sainz Ferrari +700
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes +1,300
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin +1,900
Sergio Perez Red Bull +4,000
Lando Norris McLaren +4,000
Lance Stroll Aston Martin +3,000
George Russell Mercedes +15,000
Esteban Ocon Alpine +15,000
Nico Hulkenberg Haas +20,000
Charles Leclerc Ferrari +20,000
Pierre Gasly Alpine +25,000
Oscar Piastri McLaren +25,000
Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri +60,000
Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romero +60,000
Nyck de Vries AlphaTauri +60,000
Logan Sargeant Williams +60,000
Kevin Magnussen Haas +60,000
Guanyu Zhou Alfa Romeo +60,000
Alex Albon Williams +60,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 3, 2023. 

Spanish Grand Prix 2023 post-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-450)

Max Verstappen is at the top of the Formula 1 world and not only does he head to Barcelona the defending champion after winning a season ago, but this is also the place of his first-ever F1 victory (2016).

With four wins and two runner-up finishes to his teammate, Max is the racer to beat and will remain as such until further notice.

Carlos Sainz (+700)

With Verstappen qualifying first, to the surprise of no one, Sainz is now the only other driver under 10-1, starting right behind Mad Max on Sunday.

The Ferrari driver will be in search of his first podium finish of the season, having taken P4 here last season.

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Spanish Grand Prix 2023 post-qualifying picks

Podium finish - Lewis Hamilton

I initially expected Red Bull to snag a pair of podiums, but since Sergio Perez qualified 11th and none of the last three Spain races seeing a driver starting outside the Top 10 even finish in the Top 5 in Spain, I think it opens up the door for someone new. 

Then, with Fernando Alonso starting ninth and the worst starting position for a Top-5 on this track since 2020 being eighth, that drastically opens up the door for someone else. 

Yes, Carlos Sainz Jr. Starts second. However, the Ferraris have struggled this season, with one combined podium. George Russell has been solid, but he hasn’t been on the podium at all this year, and he starts outside the Top 10.

Hamilton was runner-up in a closer comparison track in Australia, fifth in Bahrain, and starts fifth. The only cars in front of him are Max Verstappen, Sainz, Lando Norris, and Pierre Gasly. I would think the Mercedes can outpace all but Verstappen. 

Pick: Podium finish - Lewis Hamilton (+250 on bet365)

Most team points - Alpine

Sergio Perez (11th), George Russell (12th), and Charles LeClerc (19th) each failed to make Q3 in qualifying. As a result, it has opened the door drastically for someone new to snag a podium on Sunday in Spain. 

We thought initially that the Red Bulls were likely taking two of the three spots on the podium. With five of the last six years seeing teammates do so here, it appears that this year, it may not happen.

No one has started worse than eighth in the last three years and finished in the Top-5 in this race. All but one was in the Top-6. Only Alpine has teammates starting in the Top-6. That’s it. 

Fernando Alonso has finished in the Top 4 in literally every race this season, with four third-place results and a runner-up last week in Monaco. Hamilton has won five of the last six years here. 

Instead, Hamilton was marred midpack in practice and qualified fifth, while Alonso was sixth and second, respectively, on Friday but starts ninth. Ferrari has also struggled. Sainz Jr. was ninth and seventh, respectively, on Friday while LeClerc was eighth and sixth himself. 

Sainz did qualify second, but can he stay there? LeClerc rolls off 19th. The Prancing Horses have one combined podium all year and I struggle to see LeClerc making up enough ground to finish very high inside of the points anyhow. 

Hamilton has finished fifth, fifth, second, sixth, sixth, and fourth in 2023. George Russell was seventh, fourth, retired, eighth, fourth, and fifth himself.

It almost seems like Mercedes and Ferrari have fallen into the clutches of everyone else. It's only Red Bull that's distanced themselves from the pack. 

Since 2014, Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari have won 184 of the 188 races. The only four they didn't win were Pierre Gasly (Alpha Tauri) in the 2020 Italian Grand Prix, Sergio Perez (Racing Point) also in 2020 at the Sakhir Grand Prix, Esteban Ocon (Alpine) in 2021 at Hungary and Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren) in Italy in 2021. 

That's it. 

Mercedes won just once a year ago. Ferrari won four times. Red Bull 17. Red Bull is 6-for-6 this year. 

Ferrari was winless in 2020 and again in 2021. 

It appears now that the Alpine group may be poised to take third now instead on Sunday and that they and Aston Martin may be P2 and P3 soon in the F1 pecking order. 

Pierre Gasly was third and 10th on Friday with Esteban Ocon, coming off of a Monaco podium, being fifth in both sessions on Friday. Gasly qualified fourth and Ocon in seventh. 

Alpine-Renault finished fourth among constructors in 2022. This year, things were starting off tense. Out of the opening four races, they had just three finishes combined in the points and those finishes were ninth (Gasly) in Bahrain, and eighth (Ocon) and ninth (Gasly) in Saudi Arabia. They finished P13-P14 in Australia and P14-P15 in Baku.

However, double points in Miami (P8-P9) and Monaco (P3-P7) has them with some momentum again. They come to Spain fifth in the constructors trailing Ferrari by 55. If they can keep chipping away at that deficit, then there’s no reason to believe that they can end 2023 similar to 2022 and have some massive momentum for the 2024 season.

That’s why keeping the momentum is so big this weekend in the Spanish Grand Prix.

Ocon has finished fifth, 16th, 13th, ninth, and seventh respectively there. Gasly was 19th, sixth, ninth, 10th, and 13th respectively.

With both starting in the Top 6, I can see each finishing in the Top 5, which as a result, should be enough points to outscore the Red Bulls so long as Perez doesn’t get much into points. 

Pick: Most team points - Alpine (+5,000 on bet365)

Number of leaders - 2

There have been two or fewer leaders in four of the last five years here, and with how far Red Bull is ahead of the pack, I don’t foresee anyone else outside of this camp leading a lap on Sunday. In saying that, there’s a chance Max Verstappen runs away with this thing. However, I do feel like someone up front will try a different strategy and, as a result, will lead eventually. If you follow the same strategy as Verstappen, you’re just playing for second. Why not try something new? 

Pick: Number of leaders - 2 (+175 on bet365)

Spanish Grand Prix 2023 starting grid

Starting position Driver
1 Max Verstappen
2 Carlos Sainz Jr.
3 Lando Norris
4 Pierre Gasly
5 Lewis Hamilton
6 Lance Stroll
7 Esteban Ocon
8 Nico Hulkenburg
9 Fernando Alonso
10 Oscar Piastri
11 Sergio Perez
12 George Russell
13 Zhou Guanyu
14 Nyck de Vries
15 Yuki Tsunoda
16 Valtteri Bottas
17 Kevin Magnussen
18 Alexander Albon
19 Charles Leclerc
20 Logan Sargeant

Previous Spanish Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2022 Max Verstappen (2) Red Bull
2021 Lewis Hamilton (6) Mercedes
2020 Lewis Hamilton (5) Mercedes
2019 Lewis Hamilton (4) Mercedes
2018 Lewis Hamilton (3) Mercedes
2017 Lewis Hamilton (2) Mercedes
2016 Max Verstappen  Red Bull
2015 Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2014 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2013 Fernando Alonso (2) Ferrari
2012 Pastor Maldonado Williams
2011 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull
2010 Mark Webber Red Bull

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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