2024 Qatar Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions: What's Left For Max?

Max Verstappen has nothing left to race for except pride...and maybe momentum heading into 2025. He clinched the 2024 Drivers Championship, but things went sideways for Red Bull after 10 races. He'll look to right the ship in the Qatar GP.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Nov 30, 2024 • 16:59 ET • 4 min read
Max Verstappen Formula 1 Racing
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Despite finishing in fifth place in Vegas last week, Max Verstappen clinched his fourth F1 Drivers Championship.

There is still racing to be had, however, and the third edition of the Qatar Grand Prix goes Sunday at Losail Circuit.

After securing pole position during Saturday's qualifying, will Verstappen get back into the winner's circle, or is his mind elsewhere with nothing really left to race for on Sunday, December 1?

Qatar Grand Prix 2024 odds

Player/Team Pre-qualifying Post-qualifying
McLaren Lando Norris +190 +400
Red Bull Max Verstappen +350 +300

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-30.

Name Pre-qualifying Post-qualifying
McLaren Oscar Piastri +450 +750
Mercedes George Russell +650 +300
Mercedes Lewis Hamilton +650 +600
Ferrari Charles Leclerc +850 +600
Ferrari Carlos Sainz +900 +15,000
Red Bull Sergio Perez +10,000 +3,500

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-30.

pos
Name Pre-qualifying Post-qualifying
Aston Martin Fernando Alonso +30,000 +8,000
Alpine Esteban Ocon +30,000 +10,000
Williams Alexander Albon +30,000 +15,000
Haas Kevin Magnussen +30,000 OTB
VCARB Yuki Tsunoda +30,000 +15,000
Alpine Pierre Gasly +30,000 +10,000
Haas Nico Hulkenberg +30,000 +20,000
VCARB Liam Lawson +30,000 +3,500
Aston Martin Lance Stroll +40,000 +15,000
Kick Sauber Guanyu Zhou +40,000 OTB
Kick Sauber Valtteri Bottas +40,000 OTB

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-30.

Qatar Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites

No driver has won back-to-back races since Max Verstappen won both the Canadian and Spanish Grands Prix in June. This kind of broad parity helped Verstappen clinch his fourth consecutive Drivers Championship despite winning only one race in the ensuing 12.

So, he enters the week with the second-shortest odds to win the 2024 Qatar Grand Prix, trailing only Charles Leclerc, who has two wins under his belt since Verstappen's back-to-back victories.

In fact, no driver has won more than two total races in that time. Leclerc hasn't even made a podium in his last two events, but he remains the mid-week favorite.

Oscar Piastri is just behind the leaders while George Russell (who won in Vegas) and Lewis Hamilton are next in line.

Qatar Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Lando Norris to win (+100 at BetRivers)

Norris has had a disappointing close to the 2024 season after managing just four podiums in the last nine races after a start that saw him hit the podium in eight of the 11 races before that.

However, two wins during this current stretch have kept him in second place in the Drivers' Championship standings and have helped push McLaren atop the Constructors'. Norris is coming off back-to-back sixth-place finishes and is in desperate need of a bounce-back performance to help maintain positioning as the season comes to a close.

He secured third place in Saturday's qualifying round behind Max Verstappen and George Russell but is expected to have the race pace to overtake both with relative ease. Norris also demonstrated immense comfort in last year's inaugural Qatar Grand Prix, climbing his way to the podium all the way from 10th.

Max Verstappen to win (+1,600 at Caesars)

There isn't a single situation where last year's winner and newly clinched Drivers' Champion takes pole position during the qualification round and should be priced at +1,600.

While Verstappen has nothing to really race for given he has clinched the Championship and with Red Bull a firm third in the Constructors' standings, if there's one thing Verstappen doesn't like, it's having the spotlight pulled away from him.

After enduring a 10-race loss streak that was only snapped recently, Verstappen may still have a lot left to prove to himself and the rest of the grid. He was also able to cruise to a five-second win despite having the McLaren duo right on his tail.

Lewis Hamilton to record the fastest lap (+650 at FanDuel)

Hamilton may have had a disappointing season by his GOAT standards, but all things considered, it was an admirably pieced-together.

Driving inferior cars alongside teammate George Russell, the two still have managed to land inside the Top-7 in the Drivers' standings and have kept Mercedes 350 points ahead of the field for fourth place in the Constructors'.

Hamilton has also podiumed five times and won outright in two of those races. He's cashed this prop twice this season and had set the fastest lap in last week's Las Vegas Grand Prix 12 times before Lando Norris ultimately walked away with it.

At +650, Hamilton is worth backing with some lunch money.

Qatar Grand Prix 2024 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Max Verstappen 2 George Russell
3 Lando Norris 4 Oscar Piastri
5 Charles Leclerc 6 Lewis Hamilton
7 Carlos Sainz 8 Fernando Alonso
9 Sergio Perez 10 Kevin Magnussen
11 Pierre Gasly 12 Guanyu Zhou
13 Valtteri Bottas 14 Yuki Tsunoda
15 Lance Stroll 16 Alexander Albon
17 Liam Lawson 18 Nico Hulkenberg
19 Franco Colapinto 20 Esteban Ocon

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Previous Qatar Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2022 Not Held Pre-empted by World Cup
2021 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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