Miami Grand Prix Picks and Predictions: Sergio Seals the Deal in South Beach

While his teammate Max Verstappen will surely make a run on Sunday, Red Bull's Sergio Perez has been the best racer in Miami thus far and is on pole with more-than-reasonable -110 odds — our Miami GP betting picks explain why he's the man to back.

Last Updated: May 7, 2023 11:54 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Sergio Perez Red Bull Miami Grand Prix Formula 1
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Grand Prix has already delivered some surprises with Red Bull's Sergio Perez taking pole position and teammate Max Verstappen finding himself in ninth position.

Similarly, Ferrari's Carlos Sainz is in third while teammate Charles Leclerc begins in seventh. Will F1's top names find their way to the front or will Saturday's qualifying be an accurate representation of Sunday's race?

Keep reading our Formula 1 free betting picks for the Miami Grand Prix below to find out. 

Miami Grand Prix picks and predictions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Miami Grand Prix picks

Race prediction: Sergio Perez outright

The threat of Max Verstappen climbing the grid and taking home a win is always present but it's hard to argue Perez (-110) shouldn't be favored by more after a convincing qualifying win (0.4 seconds faster than second) and a win last weekend.

At the end of the day, Perez is driving a car engineered by the same team as Verstappen and if Max was producing the same results Perez has for a week now, he'd be at least -300 or shorter to win on Sunday.

Perez may have finished fourth last year in both qualifying and the race but he was essentially locked out of the podium given both Ferrari cars were ahead of him and they were not going to take any risks at the time with Leclerc leading the Drivers' championship and Ferrari leading the Constructors' championship at the time.

Pick: Sergio Perez to win outright (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet: Charles Leclerc podium finish

Despite a seventh-place finish in qualifying, Leclerc is a convincing value proposition for Sunday's race. On this same track last year, Leclerc took pole position in qualifying and ran 0.2 faster than Max Verstappen.

The names ahead of him on the grid are ones he has frequently outraced, including the likes of Fernando Alonso, Kevin Magnussen, Pierre Gasley, George Russell, and teammate Carlos Sainz. The latter is especially known as a conservative Sunday driver and wouldn't be a threat to not let his teammate pass by.

And in last year's race, Verstappen aggressively took the first corner en route to a cruising win but outside of that early mistake, Leclerc was that Sunday's best driver, beating the rest of the field by nearly five seconds.

Pick: Charles Leclerc podium finish (+350 at BetMGM)

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