Formula 1 returns to Sin City for the first time in over 40 years as the Las Vegas Grand Prix takes off this Sunday, November 19.
Charles LeClerc has taken pole position at the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix, getting things back on track after posting a Did Not Start and a Disqualification in two of his last three races. Meanwhile, teammate Carlos Sainz will start in second position on the grid.
However, Max Verstappen, who already clinched the 2023 F1 Drivers Championship, is once again the betting favorite as he takes to the Las Vegas Street Circuit.
Can the Ferrari duo of LeClerc and Sainz hold off Verstappen, or will Mad Max once again conquer the two en route to another win? We break down the odds and look at the betting favorites while Shawn Wronka offers his post-qualifying picks below.
Las Vegas Grand Prix 2023 odds
Odds as of November 18, 2023.
Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-190 at DraftKings)
On paper, having to get past two teammates at the top of the grid should be a death sentence for a racer’s chances to win a race. But Max Verstappen isn’t just any racer, as evident by his monstrous 17 wins across this year’s 20 races so far.
Two of those wins include his win two races ago at the Mexican Grand Prix where he did exactly that, passing both LeClerc and Sainz in the exact same situation, plus his win at the Italian Grand Prix when LeClerc and Sainz held the first and third position to Verstappen’s third.
It goes without saying that Verstappen has proven that he can breeze past the grid across these same situations, and that’s why he still is a modest favorite despite his predicament.
Best bet: Lando Norris Top 6 finish (+250 at BetRivers)
Recent readers of our race previews are aware of both Lando Norris’ incredibly impressive recent stretch of racing and also of our frequent backing of him during that stretch, even when the odds are stacked against him.
And boy, are those odds stacked against him on Sunday. A suboptimal showing in qualifying netted Norris the 16th position on the grid, and he has quite the climb to make to reach this prop.
Although it may not have seemed like it during qualifying, Norris is carrying quite a bit of momentum as of late after reaching the podium in five of his last six races and carrying a streak of maintaining or improving his position in 11 of the last 12 races.
That includes the Mexican Grand Prix two races ago, during which he made the climb from 17th all the way to fifth — a very similar ascent we expect him to make on Sunday. And for the more daring, Norris is as high as +2,500 to hit the podium — a prop worth some lunch money potentially.
Las Vegas Grand Prix 2023 starting grid
Here is the starting grid for Sunday's Las Vegas GP:
Las Vegas Grand Prix opening odds reaction
After a long wait, the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix is finally here! The second-to-last grand prix of the 2023 season comes with admittedly little at stake, with Max Verstappen having effectively wrapped up both the Drivers Championship and Constructors' Championship with his historic season.
The winner of five straight and 17 of this year's 20 races will look to stamp his name as the first winner of the newly minted Las Vegas Grand Prix, while the rest of the grid is looking to make strong final impressions before an inevitable offseason of changes is fully underway.
Continue reading for free Formula 1 picks and predictions for the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Sunday, November 19th.
Max Verstappen to win (-225 at Caesars)
For someone who has won 17 of this year's grands prix and has set all-time Formula 1 records along the way (longest win streak, largest Drivers' Championship margin), it's surprising to see that Max Verstappen is at his shortest opening odds since the start of the season.
Granted, there is no prior track history to credit Verstappen with given this is the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix. But, if all we have to go off instead is recent form, then Verstappen is lapping the rest of the board.
After some slight qualifying mishaps and race-day tyre strategy misfires, Verstappen took just fifth at the Singapore Grand Prix but has managed to win five straight since. And those wins came despite his market getting longer with the expectation that Verstappen would let up given that he had wrapped up both championships for him and Red Bull.
If these odds were present at any time during the rest of his historic season, bettors rightfully would have jumped all over them. Don't overthink it.
Lean: Bet before qualifying
Lando Norris to podium (-140 at BetMGM)
Frequent readers of our Formula 1 opening odds reactions should know that we have kept a keen eye on Lando Norris ever since he began breaking out earlier this season.
Norris has now hit the podium in five of his last six races, and the lone blemish was still one of the most impressive race performances of the season after he climbed from 17th all the way to fifth.
Norris also flashed during the last race, navigating his way from a starting position of sixth all the way up to a second-place finish. The race marked the 11th in his most recent 12 in which he was able to either maintain or improve his position during a race.
There's no reason to believe Norris' momentum won't carry into Las Vegas, and with Fernando Alonso just three points ahead of him in the standings and Carlos Sainz just three points behind him, there's certainly enough incentive for Norris to continue his tear.
Nevertheless, these odds (like they have recently) are likely to get better post-qualifying barring Norris obtaining pole position, so it may be worth it to wait.
Lean: Bet after qualifying.
Charles LeClerc top six (-330 at FanDuel)
It's nearly impossible to not root for, or at the very least feel for, Charles LeClerc. No racer has dealt with more external factors over the last two seasons, and, unfortunately for LeClerc, those factors have reared their head specifically on race day more often than not.
After dealing with similar issues last year and after some changes in management, there was hope that LeClerc could repeat his early-season form from last year, during which he was a serious challenger to Verstappen.
But LeClerc has had three retirements this season and has also had a disqualification and Did Not Start in two of his last three races. He squeezed in a podium finish between those two at the Mexican Grand Prix and, to his credit, had strung together three fourth-place finishes and a fifth-place finish in the four races prior.
LeClerc (as usual) is a better driver than his place in the standings would suggest (seventh), but his odds seemingly represent a version of himself that comes without the regular mishaps. The current odds are a bit too short, but if they can get to the low -200 range, they are certainly worth a stab.
Lean: Bet after qualifying if it reaches -225 or lower.
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Las Vegas Grand Prix 2023 pre-qualifying favorites
Verstappen has won five straight races and 15 of 16 with his lone outlier being a fifth-place finish at Singapore. Will the shift to the unfamiliar street circuit even the playing field or will Max simply adapt and win as he has all year long?
He's still putting the finishing touches on what will go down as the greatest single season in F1 history. Remember, Max set the all-time record with 454 points a year ago and has already well surpassed that (524) with two races to go.
Norris took his fifth podium in six races with a second-place finish at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix last weekend. It's been a nice rebound from some early-year issues that saw him finish outside the Top 3 in the first nine races he appeared in.
The 23-year-old is still seeking his first F1 victory.
Before Verstappen set the record, Hamilton had established himself as the GOAT. Well, he hasn't won a race since 2021 and finished a disappointing eighth in Brazil. 2022 marked the first year Hamilton had ever been held out of the winner's circle and it's looking increasingly likely that it will happen in back-to-back years.
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Previous Las Vegas Grand Prix winners
This marks the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix and is the first Formula 1 race held in Las Vegas since the 1982 Caesars Palace Grand Prix, which was won by Michele Alboreto. It also served as the final race in the storied career of Mario Andretti.
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.