2024 Japanese Grand Prix 2024 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Surprise! Verstappen Favored

A rare Max Verstappen loss took place in Australia, but books are still backing Red Bull's premier driver to bounce back in Japan. Find out the full odds in our F1 Japanese Grand Prix analysis.

Apr 6, 2024 • 14:11 ET • 4 min read
Max Verstappen Red Bull F1
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Max Verstappen has secured pole position ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix on late Saturday night, but teammate Sergio Perez was just behind him, less than a tenth of a second away.

Lando Norris, Carlos Sainz, Fernando Alonso, and Oscar Piastri round out the Top 6 and all will look to find early opportunity at a race that has had some incredibly eventful first five laps in each of the last two years.

Can Verstappen edge out Perez and avoid danger to retake the throne after retiring early last time out? Or will Perez and the rest of the grid create a hectic enough environment for someone else to squeak out the win?

Continue reading for free Formula 1 picks and predictions for the Japanese Grand Prix on Sunday, April 7.

Japanese Grand Prix 2024 odds

Driver Team DraftKings FanDuel Caesars bet365
Max Verstappen Red Bull -600 -600 -700 -700
Sergio Perez Red Bull +600 +650 +650 +600
Lando Norris McLaren +1,300 +2,000 +1,800 +1,800
Carlos Sainz Ferrari +2,800 +2,200 +2,800 +2,000
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes +6,000 +7,000 +6,600 +6,600
Charles Leclerc Ferrari +6,000 +5,000 +6,000 +5,000
Oscar Piastri McLaren +6,500 +5,000 +5,000 +5,000
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin +9,000 +7,000 +8,000 +6,600
George Russell Mercedes +12,000 +10,000 +12,500 +10,000
Yuki Tsunoda RB +30,000 +18,000 +35,000 +20,000
Valtteri Bottas Kick Sauber +60,000 +50,000 +200,000 +250,000
Daniel Ricciardo RB +60,000 +42,000 +100,000 +50,000
Nico Hulkenberg  Haas +70,000 +50,000 +125,000 +100,000
Kevin Magnussen Haas +70,000 +50,000
+400,000 +300,000
Alexander Albon Williams +80,000 +50,000
+200,000 +200,000
Lance Stroll Aston Martin +80,000 +50,000
+200,000 +100,000
Pierre Gasly Alpine +80,000 +50,000
+400,000 +300,000
Guanyu Zhou Kick Sauber +80,000 +50,000
+400,000 +300,000
Esteban Ocon Alpine +80,000 +50,000
+300,000 +250,000
Logan Sargeant Williams +80,000 +50,000
+400,000 +300,000

Odds as of April 6, 2024.

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Japanese Grand Prix 2024 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Max Verstappen 2 Sergio Perez
3 Lando Norris 4 Carlos Sainz
5 Fernando Alonso 6 Oscar Piastri
7 Lewis Hamilton 8 Charles Leclerc
9 George Russell 10 Yuki Tsunoda
11 Daniel Riciardo 12 Nico Hulkenberg
13 Valtteri Bottas 14 Alex Albon
15 Esteban Ocon 16 Lance Stroll
17 Pierre Gasly 18 Kevin Magnussen
19 Logan Sargeant 20 Zhou Guanyu

Japanese Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-600 at FanDuel)

Verstappen opened at just -400 this week to take home the win, low by his standards. But of course after securing pole position just one race removed from his early retirement in Australia has returned the three-time champion to odds he usually has been at leading into the race.

Verstappen will look to become a back-to-back-to-back double result champion of the Japanese Grand Prix late Saturday night, and if his last two races here are any indication he should win by a good margin. Last year he managed to win by a whopping 20 seconds and in 2022 he won by an even larger margin of 27 seconds.

His form in races immediately following a retirement (like he had in his last race) has been impeccable too in recent years. He has won two straight now coming off a retirement and before that he managed to climb from 20th to second.

The only concern for Verstappen should be the inter-Red Bull gap that has seemingly been deleted by Sergio Perez during qualification, marking his first front-row qualification result since Miami last year - a 20 race drought.

But nevertheless, if Verstappen can avoid trouble early then he should cruise to another win.

Best bet: Charles LeClerc to podium (+245 at BetRivers)

Usually this would be where we talk about taking Norris to podium, but after opening +225 to podium (which I advised to take pre-qualifying) Norris has moved to -165 after securing P3 — odds far too outside the range of value.

Instead I'm looking at LeClerc, whose odds are intriguing given some of the context of his performance in qualifying yesterday. LeClerc managed to secure just the eighth position but it came on the back of presumed tyre temperature issues that hindered his ability to pace the car properly.

Despite all of that LeClerc finished just 0.1 seconds behind teammate Carlos Sainz, who managed to secure P4.  And he finished fourth in last year's Japanese GP and third in the year prior's, both with good margin between him and the trailing driver.

If the tyre temperature issues are sorted and LeClerc can drive a clean open, there will be opportunity for him to climb the grid.

Japanese Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-500 to -400)

Verstappen has done a lot of winning over the last few seasons and he'll look to get back in that column following the disaster down under. Mega Max has captured top honors in this race the last two years and he's heavily favored to complete the three-peat.

Sergio Perez (+1,100 to +1,200)

Perez finds himself in a familiar position, second to his Red Bull teammate Verstappen. Perez finished behind Max in the first two races of the season but was unable to podium in Australia. He'll look to get back on the podium in Japan.

Carlos Sainz Jr. (+1,200 to +1,800)

Ferrari teammates Sainz Jr. and Charles Leclerc find themselves neck-and-neck on the odds board following a 1-2 podium finish respectively in the last race. Sainz Jr. has podiumed twice in three races thus far and will look to win back-to-back races to put pressure on Verstappen early in the Drivers' Championship.

Odds as of April 4, 2024.

Japanese Grand Prix opening odds reaction

Max Verstappen to win (-400 at FanDuel)

Max Verstappen may seem vulnerable following an early retirement his last time out but that is actually far from the truth.

He's the reigning back-to-back double-result champion of the Japanese Grand Prix, having won both the qualifying round and actual race in the last two years since the return of this race following its hiatus during COVID.

And it hasn't been particularly close: he won last year's race by just under 20 seconds and won 2022's by another 27 seconds. On top of that, Verstappen has gone above and beyond lately in races following a retirement.

His last retirement came in the third race of the 2022 season, and he followed that with a double-result win. Two races before that he followed up an early retirement in the opening race of the 2022 season with a win from fourth position.

Then in the second half of 2021, he followed up a retirement in the Italian Grand Prix with a second place finish at the Russian Grand Prix despite starting 20th due to an engine penalty.

-400 may seem like a short price to pay but it's worth it, and we should see this reach -600 or higher following qualification if he secures pole position.

Lean: Use as a parlay leg before qualification

Carlos Sainz to win (+1,800 at FanDuel)

Despite winning the last race, Sainz not only finds himself at 18:1 odds to repeat but also has fourth-best in odds to win on Sunday behind Sergio Perez and Charles LeClerc.

And there is a good reason for that: Sainz has had extensive troubles at the Japanese Grand Prix.

Last year Sainz managed to place sixth, and that was his second-best finish at this track by just one place (fifth in 2019). Outside of that he finished tenth twice (2015 and 2018), 17th another time (2016), and retired twice (2017 and 2022).

The Australian Grand Prix was a fantastic feel-good win for the well-decorated driver who is without a home next season, but it is nothing more than that.

Even at these odds, he isn't worth touching.

Lean: Avoid entirely

Lando Norris to podium (+225 at BetRivers)

What would one of these race previews be without a look into Lando Norris' odds to podium?

Norris is coming fresh off of a third place finish in Australia, which helped cash our pre-race recommendation at +600 and our post-qualification double-down at +230.

The extremely consistent and persistent driver continues to be a good option to back anytime his market to podium fails to replicate the -100 or shorter odds he was seeing in the last quarter of last season.

This race is no different as Norris was last year's runner-up, and achieved that distinction with a sizable margin (17+ seconds). He even finished tenth in this race in 2022 before his breakout and even as well as 11th in 2019 in his first season.

Lean: Bet before qualification

Previous Japanese Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2022 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2021 COVID-19 N/A
2020 COVID-19 N/A
2019 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes
2018 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2017 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2016 Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2015 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2014 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes

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Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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