The summer break is nearly upon Formula 1, with this weekend's Hungarian Grand Prix the final race until the sport takes a well-needed month off.
There is perhaps no driver more in need of that break than Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, who has seemingly suffered a career's worth of bad luck and devastating moments in the span of half a season in 2022.
Leclerc could receive a big boost ahead of the break, however, with the Monegasque driver the Hungarian Grand Prix odds favorite after Saturday's qualifying.
We break down the race-winner market and more with our Hungarian Grand Prix picks.
Hungarian Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-qualifying picks
Picks made on 7/30/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 7/29/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Hungarian Grand Prix picks (post-qualifying)
Winner without Charles Leclerc pick
While I do still expect Charles Leclerc to win Sunday's race from third on the grid, there's value to be found on pole sitter George Russell in the "winner without Charles Leclerc" market, where he's priced at +225. Russell is second on that board, behind Leclerc's teammate, Carlos Sainz Jr., at -120.
While Sainz certainly has a chance to take this market, Russell has a few marked edges, and neither drivers' odds reflect the outlook of tomorrow's race.
The first major advantage for Russell is, quite simply, track position. Russell narrowly taking pole from Sainz has not only given him the front spot on the grid, but it has also given him the advantageous part of the track.
Those who start in even-number grid slots at the Hungaroring are given a major disadvantage, with the right side of the track so far off the racing line traction is incredibly hard to find. Not only should Russell get away from Sainz successfully into the first turn, but Sainz will be under serious threat of an overtake from Leclerc, starting third and on the left side behind Russell.
Should Sainz fail to gain track position at the start, he'll then be faced with a brutally difficult task in the laps ahead. Among purpose-built tracks (not street circuits) that have appeared regularly on the calendar over the last five years, the Hungaroring sees the fewest average overtakes per race, at just over 20.
The Interlagos circuit sees the most overtakes on an average amongst the 2?0?2?2? venues.
— F1 StatsGuru (@f1statsguru) March 17, 2022
In contrast, Monaco sees barely a few. Will that change this year?#F1 #F12022 pic.twitter.com/DK6cirZpZf
Those rare overtaking opportunities will prove even harder for Sainz behind Russell, too. The main overtaking spot is into turn one, at the end of the main straight. However, Ferrari's advantage over Mercedes is in the corners — not in straight-line speed.
While DRS will help when Sainz is within a second, it'll be hard for the Spaniard to get close enough to launch an attack into the first turn.
The final factor we need to account for — and it's become impossible to argue against this as a relevant factor race-to-race — is Ferrari's reliability. Ferrari has shot itself in the foot time and time again this season, with seven retirements between the two drivers through 12 races.
In contrast, Mercedes has hung around in the Constructors' Championship by maximizing its points race-in, race-out. That theme will continue this weekend, with Russell taking a career-best second-place finish.
Pick: George Russell - Winner without Charles Leclerc (+225 at bet365)
End of lap 1 position pick
As mentioned above, Sainz's grid position will not only hurt him off the line against Russell, but it will leave him susceptible to an overtake from Leclerc, third on the grid and on the advantageous left-hand side.
I expect Leclerc to capitalize on what will be a superior start off the line, with Sainz's traction issues compounded by heavy rain Saturday morning, washing away whatever rubber may have been there from earlier sessions.
Grid placement is genuinely vital here, and it has factored into the front runners' opening lap consistently.
In 2021, a rain-soaked circuit saw Valtteri Bottas get away horribly from second, slipping all the way down to fifth before he locked up, ran into the back of Lando Norris, and caused a multi-car crash.
In 2020, Bottas was again second and again absolutely chewed up at the start. By turn one, the Mercedes driver was down to seventh.
In 2019, who else — Bottas — started second and was immediately pressured by Lewis Hamilton from the second row. While Bottas maintained second into the first turn, he would cede position to Hamilton after locking up into both the first and second corners, with his teammate all over him.
Instances of drivers retaining their position from second at the Hungaroring, such as Bottas in 2018, were the result of aggressively squeezing another driver when challenged. Sainz will have to be more cautious with his teammate (and title challenger) Leclerc.
When Sainz leaves the door open off the start, Leclerc will barge right through, eager to take advantage of what could be a huge day in the title fight, with Max Verstappen all the way down in 10th.
Pick: Carlos Sainz - 3rd or worse after lap one (+110 at bet365)
Hungarian GP predictions (pre-qualifying)
Race winner pick
One of the defining strengths thus far this season has been Ferrari's downforce, which has enabled it to, at times, dominate even a fantastic Red Bull car. That will be the case this weekend at the Hungaroring, a winding circuit that lacks straights of any real length.
Those track characteristics only further what should be a considerable Ferrari advantage, as not only do the second- and third-sectors favor it, but the main straight isn't long enough for Red Bull to mitigate that edge for Ferrari as it would in say, Barcelona.
Ferrari and Charles Leclerc are primed to stretch out their advantage over the majority of the lap and not allow Max Verstappen or whomever else to be in a position to launch an overtake down the straight and into turn one.
That idea played out during Friday's practice sessions, in which Ferrari was quickest in sectors two and three in both FP1 and FP2 to post fast laps around 0.25 seconds quicker than the closest team. Its drivers would top both practice sessions, with Carlos Sainz quickest in FP1 and Leclerc in FP2.
Here's how the teams ranked through each sector during Free Practice 2 at the 2022 #HungarianGP! #F1 pic.twitter.com/4kQENPOe24
— Lights Out ????? (@LightsOutF1Blog) July 29, 2022
At a circuit that so heavily favors one car, as it does here with Ferrari, we would typically look to take a driver to top qualifying and win the race — a notion that's even more sensible in relation to Ferrari and Leclerc, who has been so strong in a one-lap setting. However, with rain expected during Saturday's qualifying, there are too many variables in play.
Instead, we'll take Leclerc to win the race outright and rebound after last weekend's brutal error.
Pick: Charles Leclerc - Race winner (+120 at bet365)
Points finish pick
Numerous safety cars and an isolated crash for the race leader meant plenty of drama last week in France, with several drivers caught out by bad luck. Few drivers suffered worse luck than Haas' Kevin Magnussen.
After taking an engine penalty that would drop him to the back of the grid for race day, Magnussen proceeded to post Top-10 times in Q1 and Q2 on Saturday, displaying plenty of promising pace ahead of Sunday. Sure enough, the Dane was shot out of a cannon to begin the race, picking up an incredible seven places on the opening lap.
Magnussen's bad luck struck shortly after, as just after Haas pitted him for hard tires, one of the several safety car incidents occurred and gave all of his competitors the advantage of pitting under a safety car and thus losing less time. Eventually, Magnussen would retire after a collision late in the race.
For as frustrating as the French Grand Prix was for Magnussen, this weekend will provide a chance at redemption. This is already a track that should suit Ferrari-powered Haas, while the team has brought long-awaited upgrades to Magnussen's car for this Grand Prix.
Those upgrades are, let's say, Ferrari-inspired, with the team taking on sidepod, floor, and diffuser designs that are incredibly similar to that of its engine supplier.
The updated Haas featuring some Ferrari inspiration #F1 #HungarianGP pic.twitter.com/aBUeXdKOzS
— Chris Medland (@ChrisMedlandF1) July 29, 2022
Every indication is that Magnussen's upgraded Haas should be competitive this weekend, even more so with the long-rumored upgrades finally in place.
In Magnussen's return to F1, he has scored points in five of eight races he's completed. Provided lady luck doesn't strike out in an ugly manner at the Dane once again, he should secure his sixth points finish of the season.
Pick: Kevin Magnussen - Points finish (+125 at bet365)
