A feisty weekend from Ferrari last time out, in Austria, appeared to revive the title fight between Red Bull's Max Verstappen and Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, with Leclerc taking the win at the Red Bull Ring.
The F1 betting market expects that competitiveness to carry into Circuit Paul Ricard, with Verstappen just ahead of Leclerc atop the French Grand Prix odds board.
It's a high-speed circuit that should favor Red Bull, but Ferrari has won back-to-back races and believes it has closed the gap to the Constructors' Championship leader. Will the Italian team be proven correct?
We answer that question and more with our French Grand Prix picks, with lights out on July 24.
French Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-qualifying picks
Picks made on 7/23/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 7/22/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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French Grand Prix picks (post-qualifying)
10-lap leader pick
Though Charles Leclerc and Ferrari have been quickest in five of six sessions this weekend, it is the Red Bull of Max Verstappen who is favored to win the race — and be in the lead after 10 laps.
While there's a genuine possibility Verstappen wins tomorrow from second, it is considerably less likely he has already overtaken Leclerc by the end of the 10th lap.
We have seen, several times this year, Verstappen win after starting behind Leclerc. However, retirements or poor strategy aside, those overtakes have come gradually — not off the line or early in the DRS window.
Ferrari's been excellent in qualifying and fast laps this year, as its setup is more suited to a single-lap setting. Its car does, however, endure considerably more tire degradation than that of Red Bull, which has factored into the several instances of Verstappen slowly chipping away at a deficit over the course of a race.
The most notable instance of this came in Jeddah, when Leclerc was quickest in most sessions but Red Bull remained confident in its race pace ahead of the Grand Prix. Sure enough, Leclerc maintained the lead for the majority of the race, until the final 10 laps in which the pair came together on track and had a great battle (which Verstappen would win).
Ferrari dealt with noticeable degradation during its race simulations in practice on Friday and Saturday, and with temperatures forecast in the 90s during the race on Sunday, it'll factor in again.
With Red Bull seeming to sort out its setup by FP3 on Saturday and its straight-line speed advantage, Verstappen is absolutely still in the mix for Sunday. When he enters that mix, however, will be well past the 10th lap.
Pick: Charles Leclerc - Leader after 10 laps (-110 at bet365)
Points finish pick
Kevin Magnussen's Saturday got off to a frustrating start, with the Haas driver taking an engine penalty that will drop him to 20th to start the Grand Prix, after showing good pace with an eighth place finish in FP2 on Friday.
Everything after that penalty confirmation, however, was positive and now the Dane is primed to navigate the field and crack the Top 10 on Sunday for a points finish.
Despite Magnussen's grid penalty dropping him to 20th, he took part in qualifying — and made major waves. Q1 ended with Magnussen in a fantastic sixth, ahead of both Mercedes. While he was unable to replicate that in Q2, his fast lap, the eighth-quickest, was enough to get him into Q3, where he would not bother to set a time.
Sessions on both Friday and Saturday have shown that, despite starting 20th, Magnussen has the pace to finish inside the Top 10 in the Grand Prix. Those types of recovery drives are more feasible in this era of new regulations, with Leclerc showing that just a few races ago, going from 19th to fifth in Canada.
And, while it's a considerable amount of work ahead for Magnussen, he's in a great place to do so. In the last five years, Circuit Paul Ricard has seen the second-most overtakes of all tracks on the calendar, with an average of over 40 per race.
The Interlagos circuit sees the most overtakes on an average amongst the 2?0?2?2? venues.
— F1 StatsGuru (@f1statsguru) March 17, 2022
In contrast, Monaco sees barely a few. Will that change this year?#F1 #F12022 pic.twitter.com/DK6cirZpZf
Magnussen has been fantastic in his return to Formula 1 this year, making Q3 in seven of 11 qualifying sessions, and finishing inside the Top 10 in five of eight races he has completed.
His performance in Saturday's qualifying, in the face of an impending grid penalty, was among his finest in 2022. He'll better it on Sunday, climbing up the field and into a points finish.
Pick: Kevin Magnussen - Points finish (+250 at bet365)
French GP predictions (pre-qualifying)
Fastest qualifier and race winner pick
As the season progressed, it became increasingly difficult to make a case for any other team besides Red Bull to have the best car. It was simply dominating, aided, obviously, by championship leader Max Verstappen.
That notion is why it was so surprising to see Ferrari and Charles Leclerc win the last race, at the Red Bull Ring in Austria, so decisively. Leclerc passed Verstappen — a three-time winner in Austria — not once, not twice, but thrice en route to the checkered flag.
Ferrari was the quicker car that weekend and the team spoke confidently afterward, stating they believed they had closed the sizable gap in pace to Red Bull after introducing a new rear wing to both cars in Silverstone.
That certainly seemed true in Austria but Ferrari will need to prove it again at the French Grand Prix, as Paul Ricard is a high-speed track that would seemingly only favor the Italian team in its winding third sector.
The early returns in France are very promising for Ferrari, as it saw its drivers finish first (Leclerc) and third (Carlos Sainz) in FP1 and then first (Sainz) and second (Leclerc) in FP2 on Friday.
Even more encouraging for Ferrari is that Red Bull struggled with its setup on Friday, seemingly sacrificing straight-line speed in an effort to increase downforce. The result was Ferrari posting the quickest times in the first and third sectors in FP2, with its ideal lap time over 0.5 seconds quicker than that of Red Bull.
Here's how the teams ranked through each sector during Free Practice 2 at the 2022 #FrenchGP! #F1 pic.twitter.com/yk25xpNc2E
— Lights Out ????? (@LightsOutF1Blog) July 22, 2022
If Red Bull's advantage at Paul Ricard — a circuit where it would have been expected to dominate just a few weeks ago — is now limited to just a negligible gap in the middle sector, it will spell trouble this weekend.
Between the success at the Red Bull Ring and in Friday's free practices, Leclerc has drawn level with Verstappen in the outright race win market (+125). We'll extract a little more value and take him to qualify on pole on Saturday and win the race Sunday — an added layer that's safer in Leclerc's hands than anyone else.
The Monegasque driver is the best single-lap driver on the grid, with six pole positions and three fastest laps in 11 races this season. He'll add a seventh pole position and a fourth win this weekend.
Pick: Charles Leclerc - Fastest qualifier and race winner (+200 at bet365)
Podium finish pick
The resurrection of Mercedes is nearly complete, after the eight-time defending champions got off to a horrible (for its lofty standards) start with 2022's new regulations.
Between Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, Mercedes has had a driver finish on the podium in four straight races, and has had a driver finish in the Top 5 in every race so far this season. The former trend should be expected to continue at Paul Ricard, with Mercedes gifted another opportunity to break through Red Bull and Ferrari's hegemony in 2022.
That's because, while Leclerc and Verstappen should be expected to occupy two of the podium places, the third is entirely up for grabs. Ferrari's second driver, Carlos Sainz, will be taking a grid penalty of at least 10 places ahead of Sunday's race. Red Bull's second driver, Sergio Perez, struggled mightily with Red Bull's set up on Friday, finishing FP1 sixth-fastest and FP2 down in 10th.
In fourth in both sessions was Russell, who has been a picture of consistency this season, with three podium finishes and a run of a Top-5 finish in every race halted only by a retirement at Silverstone.
Despite Mercedes being a clear third-best to Red Bull and Ferrari this season, it has picked up strong results by capitalizing on bad luck or tough results ahead of it. With Sainz out of the picture at the front of the grid on Sunday and Perez having difficulty early in the weekend, it appears there's another door opening for Mercedes.
Count on Russell to walk right through and onto the podium.
Pick: George Russell - Podium finish (+100 at bet365)
