Mercifully, Formula 1's summer break is over after a month of rumors and team moves ahead of the 2023 season.
Before the page can be turned to '23, however, there's still half of an excellent '22 season to go — with the season's second half getting underway this weekend, with Belgian Grand Prix odds on the board.
It's hardly a race that will lack intrigue, as a quarter of the grid has dropped all the way down after qualifying due to engine penalties. With the Top 2 in the Drivers' Championship to enter Sunday with a lot of work ahead, we take a look at the F1 betting landscape at Spa with our Belgian Grand Prix picks.
Belgian Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-qualifying picks
Picks made on 8/27/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.>
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 8/26/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Belgian GP picks (post-qualifying)
Race winner pick
I hesitated on pulling the trigger on Max Verstappen to win outright yesterday but not this time. The Dutch driver will start 15th — ahead of the other drivers taking grid-drop penalties — but remains the favorite to win, with great odds of +175.
Simply put, I was prepared to take this had it hit the board after qualifying at -120. To get it at +175 is wild to me. Verstappen is in a class of his own most weekends, but even more so in Belgium.
In Friday's full practice session (the other was impacted by heavy rain), Verstappen was 0.862 seconds up on the second-quickest — holding a gap that was almost the same as second to 10th. Somehow, Saturday was even more impressive.
Verstappen entered qualifying with the knowledge the highest he could start was 15th, as he and six others were taking grid-drop penalties. And so, what did Verstappen do? Take 15th in the most impressive possible fashion.
Q1 saw Verstappen crack the 1:44 barrier, the only driver to do so, finishing nearly half a second up on second-place Carlos Sainz. Then, Q3 saw him break the 1:43 mark and finish with the quickest qualifying time — over half a second up on the pole sitter Sainz.
Session-in, session-out, Red Bull has clearly had a ridiculous pace advantage over the rest of the grid — so much so that both Ferrari drivers have already expressed concern.
That concern will play out tomorrow, with Verstappen methodically marching through the field at an overtake-friendly track to win. The last race saw Verstappen win from 10th, and he'll one up himself here.
Pick: Max Verstappen - Race winner (+175 at bet365)
Winner without Max Verstappen pick
We're going to double down on a couple of themes here: Righting my wrongs from yesterday and capitalizing on advantageous odds.
I hesitated in taking Red Bull to record a double podium prior to qualifying and regretted it, but all is well, with Perez sitting second in the "winner without Max Verstappen" market at +175. Like Verstappen's outright odds, this seems to be missing the mark on Red Bull's dominance here and putting too much weight into starting position.
Perez will be starting on the front row, with Sainz on pole and at -120 in this market. I believe Perez is more likely to win than Sainz, period. For Sainz's implied probability to be nearly 20% higher than Perez's is difficult to understand.
Perez's Saturday began with the quickest time in FP3, nearly .8 seconds quicker than Sainz with both running soft tires. He was quicker than Sainz in Q2 and less than two-tenths slower in Q3, despite Sainz getting the benefit of a tow from his teammate Charles Leclerc, while Verstappen had returned to the garage.
Crucially, the Red Bull advantage here is over the full lap, as opposed to just the high-speed parts in which it typically dominates.
In FP3, Red Bull posted the quickest times in sectors two and three, which, on paper, should favor Ferrari's downforce advantage and ability to carry speed through corners. If Ferrari isn't getting a pace advantage there, it simply won't anywhere else — and won't be able to compete with the Red Bull drivers as a result.
Pick: Sergio Perez - Winner without Max Verstappen (+175 at bet365)
Belgian GP predictions (pre-qualifying)
Podium finish pick
The bad news: Max Verstappen is taking an engine penalty this weekend and will thus drop to the back of the grid.
The good news: He'll be joined by Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Esteban Ocon, and Mick Schumacher, all of whom are doing the same.
The better news: Verstappen's starting position will hardly define his weekend, such is the dominance of this year's Red Bull.
Prior to news of his engine penalty, Verstappen entered Spa as the outright favorite, and rightfully so. Spa is the longest circuit on the calendar and one that has multiple long, high-speed sectors in which the Red Bull's power would shine.
That played out on Friday, where Verstappen finished a ridiculous 0.862 seconds up on second-place Charles Leclerc, with that gap between first and second nearly the equivelent of second to 10th.
Both the circuit and car set the stage for a busy Sunday for Verstappen. Just before the summer break, we saw the championship leader barge through the field from 10th to win the race in Hungary. That was an impressive feat at the Hungaroring, the purpose-built track which has seen the fewest average overtakes per race over the last five years.
Verstappen will have more overtaking to do this time around, but he'll have ample opportunity. Spa has averaged nearly 40 overtakes per race since 2017, which is the fifth-most among purpose-built tracks and almost double the average the Hungaroring sees.
At +350, Verstappen represents an enticing outright race winner pick. However, with the possibility of both Mercedes sorting their setup after a poor Friday, as well as Ferrari's Carlos Sainz and Verstappen's teammate, Sergio Perez, to account for, a podium finish is the safer play.
Pick: Max Verstappen - Podium finish (-138 at bet365)
Top 6 finish pick
With Verstappen, Leclerc, and Norris bound for the back of the grid for the start of Sunday's race, an opportunity has appeared for some of the midfield's combatants to push higher up the field and come away with a greater points haul than they may have previously expected.
Prominent among that group would be Alpine's Fernando Alonso, who's in an excellent rhythm in the 2022 season. The 41-year-old has scored points in eight consecutive races, most impressively in Austria, where he finished 10th after starting 20th. Spa will be a great chance for Alonso to make it nine-straight points finishes, and a third Top 6 finish in his last five races.
Aside from consistency from both drivers, the biggest reason Alpine is in a fight for fourth in the Constructors' this year is the power of its engine. In straights, Alpine is second to just Red Bull, and that high top speed will give it an edge at the ridiculously long, high-speed Spa.
Alonso finished seventh-quickest in Friday's FP2, and recorded the third-fastest first-sector time (behind the two Red Bulls), in the rapid first part of Spa.
Provided Alpine gets its set up correct and doesn't suffer too much of a loss in time during the latter parts of the lap, Alonso should remain high up the midfield throughout the weekend — and record another Top-6 finish.
Pick: Fernando Alonso - Top 6 finish (+110 at bet365)
