Formula 1 takes to a street circuit for the second consecutive race, with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix taking place this weekend at the Baku City Circuit.
One of the longest circuits on the F1 calendar, Baku is not only a complex lap but also one with very fine margins, as drivers are on the edge of crashing out at every turn. It's a circuit that typically delivers an excellent race — but will it bring a fifth race win of the season for Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds favorite Max Verstappen?
We make the case for Sunday's winner and more in our Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks and predictions.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-qualifying picks
Picks made on 6/11/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 6/10/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks (post-qualifying)
Fastest lap pick
Charles Leclerc's standing as the best single-lap driver on the grid this season is unquestioned, after several seasons of Leclerc maximizing an underwhelming Ferrari in qualifying session after qualifying session.
Now, with a car befitting of his ability, Leclerc has strung together incredible fast-lap results this year, taking six of eight pole positions, including the last four after going quickest on Saturday in Baku. He has complemented his success this season with another three fastest laps, including at high-speed circuits in Jeddah and Melbourne.
Despite Leclerc's pole position for Sunday — and his place in the Top 2 in five of six sessions this weekend — he's +200 to set the fastest lap of the race.
While we expect Verstappen and Red Bull to be superior during the race, it could play out similar to the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. In Jeddah, Red Bull's race pace gave it the edge (and Verstappen the win) but Leclerc's single-lap pace allowed him to set the fastest time during the final lap of the race.
There are typically a handful of variables that go into the fastest lap, such as whether the leaders have a large enough gap to pit for fresh tires at the end of the race to push for it, but +200 for the driver who has been the quickest single-lap driver for the majority of the weekend is too good of value to pass up.
Pick: Charles Leclerc - Fastest lap (+200 at bet365)
Top-6 finish pick
We've taken advantage of perceived deference to seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton in our F1 picks a few times this season, and we'll look to do so again here by taking him not to finish in the Top 6 at +110.
Hamilton and Mercedes are in the midst of a frustrating season, with the Constructors' champion unable to get on top of its issues under the new regulations. Those issues have reared their head again in Baku, with the promise shown in Barcelona just two Grand Prix ago nowhere to be found.
Both Mercedes cars have been porpoising wildly down the two-kilometer-long start/finish straight, with Hamilton voicing his concerns during qualifying and his teammate, George Russell, doing so after Friday's practices.
In that regard, Hamilton did well to qualify seventh on Saturday, but his Q3 time was largely an outlier compared to the rest of the weekend. Prior to that third and final qualifying session, Hamilton had finished FP1 in sixth, FP2 in 12th, FP3 in 12th, 11th in Q1, and sixth in Q2 — with the benefit of a tow courtesy of Russell to get him out of the elimination zone and all the way up to sixth in that session.
In order for Hamilton to crack the Top 6 on Sunday, he'll have to not only pass Pierre Gasly — who finished third here a year ago — but hold off Yuki Tsunoda (starting eighth) and Fernando Alonso (10th), two drivers who have been competitive all weekend long, behind him.
With the fine margins of the Baku Street Circuit, we're highly likely to get a few safety cars or even a red flag, which would bunch the grid back up together and give Hamilton good overtaking opportunities. However, on balance, he hasn't been among the six-quickest drivers this weekend and we're not going to back him to crack those positions on Sunday.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton - No Top-6 finish (+110 at bet365)
Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions (pre-qualifying)
Race winner pick
Last season, after heartbreak at the previous Grand Prix in Monaco, Charles Leclerc qualified on pole in Baku only for the superior power of Max Verstappen's Red Bull to chew Leclerc's Ferrari up on the long start/finish straight.
Once Verstappen took the lead, he extended it lap-by-lap, giving himself nearly a five-second cushion to second when a tire failure ended his race with five laps to go.
The crash aside, a similar weekend should be ahead of us in Baku. Leclerc and Ferrari's single-lap pace has shined regardless of the circuit this season, and did so again on Friday when he topped FP2. However, we've previously seen the power advantage Verstappen's Red Bull holds allow him to slowly eat into Leclerc's advantage in the long run of a race, such as in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
Leclerc may never be more susceptible to this than in Baku, with such a large portion of the first and third sectors taken at full throttle. During both drivers' fast laps in FP1 Friday, Leclerc was quicker in the slow corners, while Verstappen was quicker in every other part.
This is a circuit where Red Bull has a considerable advantage over Ferrari, and the 51 laps on Sunday will prove it. Regardless of whether he takes pole on Saturday, Verstappen is the rightful favorite to win the race.
I would back Leclerc to qualify quickest (+100 at bet365) but race day will be Verstappen's for redemption.
Pick: Max Verstappen - Race winner (+110 at bet365)
Double podium pick
For as confident as we feel about Verstappen finding redemption on Sunday, we feel just as good about his teammate, Sergio Perez, joining him on the podium. The reasons for that are threefold.
The first was already touched on above: Red Bull's engine should rule race day, with no other car on the grid matching its power. With such a long run out of turn 19, down the start/finish straight, and into turn one, both Verstappen and Perez will have the chance to make major gains on the field.
The second is Perez's form this season. After an up-and-down first season with Red Bull, adjusting to a car that's famously hard to drive, Perez spoke confidently about his suitability for the car ahead of this season.
Through seven races, he has been proven correct, with four podiums (including a win in the last race in Monaco), two fourth-place finishes, and the first pole position of his career in Jeddah. Perez's form appears to have been carried into Baku, where he was quickest in FP1 and second-quickest in FP2 on Friday.
Perez's good showing thus far in Baku is no surprise, which brings us to the final reason to back him. In what has been a journeyman career in F1, Perez has always had strong showings in Azerbaijan.
In five races in Baku, Perez has finished third (2016), retired from fourth after qualifying sixth ('17), took third ('18) and sixth ('19) in a car that finished seventh in the Constructors', and then won the race last year after good fortune opened the door.
At -175 for Perez to finish on the podium, it's a no-brainer to back both Red Bull drivers to finish on the podium here for considerably better odds.
Pick: Red Bull - Double podium (+100 at bet365)
