We only have hours to wait until we find out who will be next to leave Dancing with the Stars, but prediction markets might already have the answer.
There’s now well over $3 million on the episode four elimination market on Kalshi. Traders are piling money on Tatyana Ali as next to go, and have been since this market opened last week. She’s partnered with Taylor Swift’s former dancer (and Eras tour performer) Jan Ravnik.
Dancing with the Stars Elimination Odds
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Key Takeaways:
- Tatyana Ali Leads Exit Odds: We’ve had Tatyana Ali as frontrunner since the market opened. Traders are skeptical about her chances of making it through episode four.
- Tyler Cameron in Danger: Reality TV star Tyler Cameron follows closely behind at 'yes' 24¢ (24% probability) after downward price movements.
- Sleeper Value: In terms of mid-tier plays, Rodriguez is a good option at 15¢ (15% probability).
As the stars put the finishing touches on their routines for tonight’s live show, we’re looking for value on the prediction market that just might know what the future holds. Here’s the latest.
DWTS Elimination Odds: Episode Four
All the attention on this market is centered around a few key stars. The person with the highest exit probability for week four is actress Tatyana Ali, followed by former Bachelorette favorite Tyler Cameron.
If the market is to be believed, fan favorites like Julia Stiles, Connor Wood and Jackson Olson are safe, all trading around 2% to 3%.
| Celebrity | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tatyana Ali | 44% | 44¢ | 58¢ |
| Tyler Cameron | 24% | 24¢ | 77¢ |
| Ciara Miller | 15% | 16¢ | 85¢ |
| Guillermo Rodriguez | 14% | 15¢ | 86¢ |
| Taylor Hanson | 9% | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| Connor Wood | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Jackson Olson | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Julia Stiles | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Amber Glenn | 1% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
| Ezra Frech | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Harry Shum Jr. | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Jenna Dewan | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Maura Higgins | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
Need help understanding Kalshi probabilities? Check out our easy odds calculator.
Three Picks from the Dancing with the Stars Elimination Prediction Market
Tatyana Ali | 'Yes' 44¢
Tatyana Ali has been this market’s top pick since opening. The nostalgia appeal of this 90s star cannot be underestimated (she’s Ashley Banks from the Fresh Prince of Bel Air, in case you didn’t recognise her!) but traders still think her time is up.
Judges haven’t scored her well so far, and there’s some huge talent in the competition. It all adds up to a high likelihood of exit tonight.
Tyler Cameron | 'No' 77¢
There are some good ‘No’ options on this board. Tyler Cameron has a 77% probability of making it through episode four, but we’d say his realistic changes are higher.
Bachelor Nation has historically demonstrated massive voting power on Dancing with the Stars, and that can keep stars afloat even if their scores leave something to be desired.
Guillermo Rodriguez | 'Yes' 15¢
Another crowd favorite who is now in danger is Guillermo Rodriguez, currently trading at 15¢. His comedic appearances on Jimmy Kimmel Live! have made him hugely popular with fans, but those dance scores aren’t looking too good right now.
At 15¢, Rodriguez offers a good risk-to-reward ratio if Tatyana Ali does make it through this week.
Looking Beyond Episode Four? The Season 35 Winner Market
Dodging the elimination tonight might be the immediate goal for some of our competitors, but others are looking much further ahead.
Traders have been casting their votes on who they think is most likely to win the series since before it even began, and that board has proven hugely volatile so far.
Prices swing massively in reaction to the standard of dances, and the judges comments. Fans’ comments on social media are also capable of changing pricing for frontrunners in the blink of an eye.
For a complete breakdown of outright odds, longshot value plays, and full season predictions, take a look at our dedicated Dancing with the Stars Season 35 winner odds page.
How to Trade Dancing with the Stars on Kalshi
Kalshi prediction markets are different to traditional sports betting. Instead of placing basic bets on outcomes, Kalshi lets traders put money on ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ answers to real-world events. There are markets for almost every outcome, from sports and politics to reality shows and music charts.
Here’s how to sign up and start trading Dancing with the Stars on Kalshi.
- Account Setup: Sign up on Kalshi, complete the quick verification process and deposit funds via ACH or bank transfer.
- Navigate: Search for "Dancing with the Stars" or browse under the Pop Culture tab to locate the Episode 4 Elimination market.
- Execute: Select your chosen contestant, choose 'Yes' or 'No', enter your contract quantity, and confirm your order.
- Monitor: Track price shifts in real time and choose to either hold until official resolution or sell early to lock in profits.
Dancing with the Stars Episode Four Elimination FAQs
Tatyana Ali is currently the market favorite for elimination with a 44% implied probability on Kalshi. Tyler Cameron and Ciara Miller follow behind as secondary contenders for exit. Prices fluctuate continuously based on fan voting and rehearsal updates.
Prices on Kalshi directly mirror the market's implied probability for an event outcome. For instance, a contract trading at 'Yes' 44¢ represents a 44% chance of occurrence. A 'No' contract at 77¢ implies a 77% chance the contestant stays safe.
The market resolves to 'Yes' for whichever contestant is officially declared eliminated during the broadcast or press release. Multiple simultaneous eliminations both count toward payouts. If no elimination occurs during the episode, contracts resolve according to official show rules.
Yes, traders can buy or sell their positions at any point before the market closes. This allows investors to profit off price swings driven by social media hype or live performances. You do not need to hold contracts until the final broadcast resolution.
