The NBA Draft can be a wild time. Phones are ringing. People are shouting. Statistics and numbers are analyzed in excruciating depth and everyone makes projections.
It all sounds like Wall Street on a regular Tuesday.
With so much in common between the two, a natural question emerges: why don’t we explore this year’s NBA draft prospects and their Wall Street compatriots?
We used a proprietary metric, the College Basketball Stock Index, to give the top 20 prospects from this year’s NBA draft a stock value. We then used AI to give us comparisons and projections for each player to see if we can predict each prospects' future using the stock market.
Read on for our NBA-players-as-Wall-Street-stocks comparisons, along with expert commentary from Brian Pacampara, CFA – an Investing Editor at MoneyWise.com with over 20 years’ experience in financial analysis. Brian is also a keen basketball bettor.
NBA Draft prospects as Wall Street stocks
| Player | School | Pos | Stock Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Duke | SF | Apple (AAPL) |
| Dylan Harper | Rutgers | PG | Nike (NKE) |
| Ace Bailey | Rutgers | SF | Rivian (RIVN) |
| VJ Edgecombe | Baylor | SG | GameStop (GME) |
| Tre Johnson | Texas | SG | Netflix (NFLX) |
| Kon Knueppel | Duke | SF | Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) |
| Jeremiah Fears | Oklahoma | PG | Small-Cap Biotech Startup |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | S. Carolina | PF | NVIDIA (NVDA) |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | Maryland | PG | Baidu (BIDU) |
| Derik Queen | Illinois | C | Costco (COST) |
| Khaman Maluach | Duke | C | Microsoft (MSFT) |
| Egor Demin | BYU | PG | Boeing (BA) |
| Carter Bryant | Arizona | SF | Procter & Gamble (PG) |
| Nolan Traore | France | PG | Tencent (TCEHY) |
| Nique Clifford | Colo. St. | SF | Coca-Cola (KO) |
| Danny Wolf | Michigan | PF | Ford (F) |
| Jase Richardson | Michigan State | SG | Starbucks (SBUX) |
| Cedric Coward | Wash. St. | SG | Eli Lilly (LLY) |
| Thomas Sorber | Georgetown | C | Waste Management (WM) |
| Asa Newell | Georgia | PF | Quantum Computing Startup |
NBA Draft prospect stock comparisons
1 | Cooper Flagg | Apple (AAPL) 🍏
Freshman | SF | C-BSI: 13.74 | Blue-Chip Tech (Elite)
Stock Summary: A market leader with immense brand recognition, high performance, and a perception of being a "must-have" asset.
Investor Intel: “Like AAPL, he’s not just a safe bet, he’s a necessary one. The floor is perennial All-Star; the ceiling? Franchise-defining. You’re buying a blue-chip that anchors your portfolio.”
2 | Dylan Harper | Nike (NKE) 👟
Freshman | PG | C-BSI: 5.7 | Solid Growth Prospect (Good Fundamentals)
Stock Summary: A well-established company with strong fundamentals, global presence, and steady, reliable growth potential.
Investor Intel: “Harper may not be flashy, but he does everything well and has serious staying power. Long-term, he’s the type of core holding you want in your growth sleeve.”
3 | Ace Bailey | Rivian (RIVN) 🚙
Freshman | SF | C-BSI: 4.5 | High-Upside, Developing (Efficiency Needs)
Stock Summary: An electric vehicle startup: high long-term potential and excitement, but still needs to prove consistent profitability and efficiency.
Investor Intel: “Like Rivian, Ace Bailey’s a speculative growth play: if he hits, you’re getting 10x returns, but there’s execution risk you can’t ignore.”
4 | VJ Edgecombe | GameStop (GME) 🎮
Freshman | SG | C-BSI: 2.16 | High-Risk, High-Reward (Volatile, Needs Consistency)
Stock Summary: Known for extreme volatility and high potential (both up and down), often driven by sentiment more than pure fundamentals.
Investor Intel:“Edgecombe can absolutely explode if things click, but the shot selection and consistency issues make him boom-or-bust. You’re not buying this with a retirement account — this is your YOLO fund.”
5 | Tre Johnson | Netflix (NFLX) 📺
Freshman | SG | C-BSI: 3.66 | Growth Stock (Scoring Focus, Needs D/Efficiency)
Stock Summary: A strong content producer and market leader in its niche, consistently delivering its core product, but always under scrutiny for efficiency and diversifying its appeal.
Investor Intel: “Tre Johnson’s game is buckets — pure content delivery, like Netflix’s original programming. He’s got a clear lane, but the shot diet and defensive lapses make you wonder about sustainability.”
6 | Kon Knueppel | Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 👶
Freshman | SF | C-BSI: 6.9 | High-Dividend Stock (Elite Efficiency)
Stock Summary: A stable, highly profitable company known for consistent, reliable performance and strong returns to shareholders.
Investor Intel:“Kon Knueppel won’t make you rich overnight, but he’s going to provide steady income each quarter. This is the dividend stock of the class — reliable returns, no drama.”
7 | Jeremiah Fears | Small-Cap Biotech Startup 🧬
Freshman | PG | C-BSI: 0.6 | Speculative Penny Stock (High Risk/High Reward)
Stock Summary: Represents a highly speculative investment; could either revolutionize its field or burn through cash with little return.
Investor Intel:“High-risk, high-reward, but if you believe in the upside, the entry price is low.”
8 | Collin Murray-Boyles | NVIDIA (NVDA) ⚙️
Sophomore | PF | C-BSI: 10.78 | Breakout Growth Stock (Elite Performer)
Stock Summary: A company that has recently surged due to outstanding performance and clear market dominance in an innovative sector.
Investor intel: “Murray-Boyles has surged thanks to high-level tools and elite productivity, just like NVIDIA riding the AI wave.”
9 | Kasparas Jakucionis | Baidu (BIDU) 🇨🇳
Freshman | PG | C-BSI: 1.38 | Emerging Market Play (Efficiency Drag)
Stock Summary: A company with significant potential in a large, developing market, but faces challenges with regulatory environments or proving consistent, high-efficiency growth.
Investor intel: “Like Baidu, there are efficiency questions and a learning curve with the market. A solid emerging markets play if you’re willing to wait out the rough quarters.”
10 | Derik Queen | Costco (COST) 🌭
Freshman | C | C-BSI: 7.5 | Promising Fundamental (Reliable Big)
Stock Summary: A company with a solid, dependable business model, consistent customer loyalty, and reliable, albeit not explosive, growth.
Investor intel: “He’s not changing your portfolio overnight, but like Costco, he delivers consistent value and never leaves you overpaying for production.”
11 | Khaman Maluach | Microsoft (MSFT) 💻
Freshman | C | C-BSI: 12.9 | Defensive Anchor Growth (High Impact)
Stock Summary: A foundational tech giant, essential for stability and infrastructure (defense), but also continuously innovating for growth.
Investor intel: “Khaman Maluach’s value is still evolving in real time. His defensive floor is elite, and the upside is there if the offense comes around. A great long-term hold, no matter what style you invest in.”
12 | Egor Demin | Boeing (BA) ✈️
Freshman | PG | C-BSI: -0.12 | High-Risk Turnaround (Significant Efficiency Issue)
Stock Summary: A once-dominant company facing significant operational and efficiency challenges, requiring a major turnaround to restore trust and value.
Investor intel:“Demin feels like Boeing post-grounding – you know the name, you know the talent, but you also see all the red flags. This is a turnaround play, plain and simple. The tools are still there, but it’s going to take serious work to unlock them.”
13 | Carter Bryant | Procter & Gamble (PG) 🧴
Freshman | SF | C-BSI: 4.74 | Solid Foundational (Good Efficiency/Defense)
Stock Summary: A stable, well-established company providing essential goods, offering consistent (if not spectacular) performance and reliability.
Investor intel: “Bryant won’t be the headline guy, but he’ll always have a role and always be useful. Low-risk, steady, and built for long-term value.”
14 | Nolan Traore | Tencent (TCEHY) 🕹️
International | PG | C-BSI: N/A | Foreign Exchange Investment (Pro Stats Needed)
Stock Summary: A dominant foreign market player that requires specialized knowledge of international markets for proper valuation.
Investor intel: “Traore’s your international growth story — strong underlying fundamentals, but you need context to evaluate him right. If you understand the league he played in, you’ll find value others might overlook. But without the right due diligence, it’s easy to misprice him.”
15 | Nique Clifford | Coca-Cola (KO) 🥤
Senior | SF | C-BSI: 6.44 | Mature, Reliable Dividend (Proven Performer)
Stock Summary: A long-standing, globally recognized brand, offering consistent returns and stability rather than rapid growth.
Investor intel: “Clifford is mature, proven, and does exactly what you expect. Maybe the upside isn’t massive, but he’s low-volatility and highly dependable. Every team — and portfolio — needs a guy like this.”
16 | Danny Wolf | Ford (F) 🚘
Junior | PF | C-BSI: 4.9 | Value Stock on the Move (Solid Transfer)
Stock Summary: An established industrial company currently undergoing significant strategic shifts that could unlock new value.
Investor intel: “Wolf is reinventing himself, just like Ford moving into EVs. There’s a track record, but he’s also showing real signs of modern upside.”
17 | Jase Richardson | Starbucks (SBUX) ☕
Freshman | SG | C-BSI: 6.6 | Solid Value Play with Upside
Stock Summary: A well-known brand with a strong customer base and consistent performance, offering steady growth with room for expansion.
Investor intel: “Jase Richardson is a dependable guard with some flair, and there’s still room to grow. You’re not hitting a home run, but he’s a consistent performer with upside.”
18 | Cedric Coward | Eli Lilly (LLY) 💉
Senior | SG | C-BSI: 8.08 | Highly Efficient, Late-Blooming Value (Elite Impact)
Stock Summary: A pharmaceutical giant experiencing significant growth driven by highly efficient and impactful new products.
Investor intel: “Coward is the late-stage breakout we love to see — like Eli Lilly exploding off the back of game-changing products.”
19 | Thomas Sorber | Waste Management (WM) 🚛
Freshman | C | C-BSI: 4.32 | Developing Big Man (Solid Defense/Efficiency)
Stock Summary: A utility-like company offering essential, consistent services with steady, predictable, though not flashy, value.
Investor intel: “Like WM, he handles the dirty work — defense, rebounding, physicality — and gives you a strong floor. You’re not getting a blue chip headliner in your portfolio, but you are getting dependable results.”
20 | Asa Newell | Quantum Computing Startup 🖥️
Freshman | PF | C-BSI: 2.46 | Long-Term Growth Play (Raw Talent, Potential)
Stock Summary: Represents a highly speculative long-term play, where current value is based almost entirely on future potential and the development of underlying technology.
Investor intel: “It’s all projection right now, but if the tools mature, he’s a futuristic, scalable asset. Huge upside, but you need time and a strong stomach.”
Methodology
To connect NBA players to Wall Street stocks, we developed the Basketball Stock Index (BSI), and a further iteration which included scaling and projection for college players called the C-BSI. This proprietary score assesses a player's on-court value using three key advanced statistics:
- VORP (Value Over Replacement Player): Measures overall impact on wins.
- TS% (True Shooting Percentage): Reflects offensive efficiency.
- DBPM (Defensive Box Plus/Minus): Quantifies defensive contribution.
Each stat is adjusted against its league average for the player's era, with VORP carrying the most weight, while TS% and DBPM act as crucial efficiency and defensive modifiers. For draft prospects, younger players receive a multiplier, acknowledging their greater potential growth.
Finally, players are likened to specific stocks based on their BSI score, career trajectory (or projected path), and unique strengths – from "blue-chip" stars like Apple to "high-risk, high-reward" ventures, creating a fun and insightful financial analogy.
The Basketball Stock Index (BSI) 📊
Core Principles:
- Overall Impact: Prioritize stats that measure a player's contribution to wins.
- Efficiency: Account for how effectively a player uses their possessions.
- Two-Way Play: Include defensive contributions, not just offense.
Stock Analogy: The fundamental "earning power" or "intrinsic value" of the player/company. True Shooting Percentage (TS%): This is your "efficiency" or "profit margin" metric. TS% measures a player's shooting efficiency, taking into account field goals, three-pointers, and free throws. It's a much better measure of offensive efficiency than just field goal percentage.
Stock Analogy: How efficiently the company converts its "revenue" (shots) into "profit" (points). Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM): This is your "risk management" or "defensive moat" metric. DBPM estimates a player's defensive contribution per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player and team.
Stock Analogy: How well the company protects its assets or mitigates risks.
Calculation Method for the BSI
To combine these stats effectively, we need to normalize them so they are on a comparable scale. The easiest way to do this for a blog post is using a simple percentile-based normalization or a scaled score.For a practical, easy-to-use score, we can use a simpler approach:
- Select a "Top-Tier" Benchmark for each stat.
- Assign Weights and Scale — VORP gets the most weight.
BSI = (VORP × Weight1) + (Scaled TS% × Weight2) + (Scaled DBPM × Weight3) Suggested Weights:
- VORP: Used as-is as the base value.
- Scaled TS%: (Player TS% − 0.575) × 50
- Scaled DBPM: Player DBPM × 1.5
Step-by-Step Guide to Calculate BSI:
- Get the player's VORP, TS%, and DBPM for a given season.
- Use 0.575 as the league average TS%.
- Use 0.0 as the league average DBPM.
- VORP: 5.5
- TS%: 0.600 → (0.600 − 0.575) × 50 = 1.25
- DBPM: +1.2 → 1.2 × 1.5 = 1.8
Interpreting the BSI:
- 10+: MVP-level, blue-chip elite (Apple, Microsoft)
- 6.0 – 9.9: All-Star/All-NBA level
- 3.0 – 5.9: Reliable starters
- 1.0 – 2.9: Rotation/role players
- Below 1.0: Penny stocks, high-risk/high-reward prospects
Why the BSI Works:
- Simplicity: Easy to calculate with public data.
- Balance: Includes offense, defense, and efficiency.
