NFL betting got a jolt Sunday night from a source that shouldn’t be surprising, as the New England Patriots announced the signing of free-agent quarterback Cam Newton. That sent bookmakers scrambling to reconfigure NFL futures numbers, particularly with regard to Super Bowl odds and AFC championship odds.
What are the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds after signing Cam Newton?
With Tom Brady having moved on to the Buccaneers, the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds slipped over the past couple of months and were at +2,500 before Sunday's news. After signing Cam Newton, PointsBet USA moved the Pats to +2,000, trailing just six other teams: Kansas City (+500), Baltimore (+600), San Francisco (+900), Tampa Bay and New Orleans (+1,100) and Dallas (+1,700). The Seahawks and Eagles are also at +2,000.
“Even not assuming health, Cam Newton is probably a QB upgrade to Jarrett Stidham. And assuming health, he’s a substantial upgrade,” PointsBet USA director of communications Patrick Eichner said.
The SuperBook adjusted New England from +4,000 to +3,000 in its Super Bowl odds market, behind 10 other teams, and bettors were interested right away.
“We’ve gotten quite a few Super Bowl and conference bets. Small bets, though,” SuperBook manager Derek Wilkinson said.
FanDuel moved the Pats from +2,300 to +1,700.
What are the Patriots’ AFC championship odds after signing Cam Newton?
At The SuperBook, the Pats moved from +2,000 to +1,500 to win the AFC. That puts New England fifth behind Kansas City +200, Baltimore +250, Indianapolis +1,000 and Pittsburgh +1,200. Interestingly, AFC East rival Buffalo is also +1,500 to win the AFC.
New England made a modest move at PointsBet USA, from +1,200 to +1,000 on the AFC championship odds board. The Patriots are now the third choice to win the conference title, behind the Chiefs (+225) and Ravens (+275). At FanDuel, the Pats shifted from +1,000 to +700, behind only the Chiefs (+310) and Ravens (+340).
What are the Patriots’ AFC East odds after signing Cam Newton?
After losing Tom Brady, New England no longer was the favorite to win the AFC East, for the first time in seemingly forever. With the acquisition of Newton, however, the Patriots are back in the top spot, moving from +140 to +115 at PointsBet USA, while the Bills adjusted from +110 to +130.
“The Pats’ odds saw quick adjustments across the board,” Eichner said.
The SuperBook made the Patriots co-favorites with the Bills in the AFC East, as New England moved from +150 to +130, and Buffalo slipped from +120 to +130.
What are Cam Newton’s MVP odds?
This was a major mover at The SuperBook. Wilkinson said his shop tightened Newton’s MVP odds from +30,000 to +4,000, but as the news broke, a sharp bet slid in at the far higher number.
“One wiseguy got me on the mobile app for $100 on MVP 300/1 before I could move it,” he said.
In addition, the prop bet of where Cam Newton would land was on the board at FanDuel and Draftkings. The Patriots were +500 at FanDuel and +650 at DraftKings, and the largest payouts at each were on bets of $250 ($1,250 win) and $300 ($1,950 win), respectively.
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