Horse racing betting prepares for its biggest weekend, the 146th Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs. The storied race was moved four months later than originally scheduled, from the first Saturday in May to Labor Day, the first Saturday in September. Tiz the Law looks to continue his bid into becoming the 14th Triple Crown winner in history, and third since American Pharoah in 2015.
Our horse racing analyst Monique Vág previews the 2020 Kentucky Derby odds and field horse-by-horse, giving her picks and predictions, including her favorite trifecta for the Saturday, September 5 contest. **video
*Editor's note: Monique's original pick to finish third, King Guillermo, was a late withdrawal from the 2020 Kentucky Derby after coming down with a high fever.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Horses and Predictions
1. Finnick The Fierce (Jockey: Martin Garcia) - 50/1 odds
Although he is yet to win at Churchill Downs, this gelding is one of a few in here with experience racing over the dirt, with three starts under his belt, including a runner-up finish and third-place effort most recently in an optional claiming contest. He enters today off a seventh-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, beaten 10 lengths to Art Collector after getting out a tad bit slow. The rail post is not going to help him much and the risk looms of once again starting slow and getting shuffled back with no clear racing room late.
2. Max Player (Ricardo Santana Jr.) - 30/1
This lightly-raced colt only has five career starts to his name, however he is not lacking in stakes experience with three of those being graded-stakes contests. His most recent effort is a third-place finish (posting a career-best speed figure of 107) in the Travers Stakes to Tiz the Law. Although the race looked good on paper, he never looked like he was in position to track down some of the front-runners in either recent Grade 1 effort. Heading into the Derby, this colt moved to the Steve Asmussen barn. Although not shy in Kentucky Derby experience or starters, Asmussen is still looking for his first Kentucky Derby winner, with an 0-for-20 record going into the big dance.
3. Enforceable (Adam Beschizza) - 30/1
This runner is a true closer who likes to make his rallies from last. That often screams trouble in a race like the Kentucky Derby, where traffic trouble and clear racing room often hinder horses who don’t get out to a quick break. His most recent victory came at the Fair Grounds on January 18, making a late stretch rally after a wide trip. Although he may have live legs late and be able to track down some of the tired horses fading mid-pack, he needs a lot to go right to have a legitimate chance to hit the board.
4. Storm the Court (Julien Leparoux) - 50/1
His most impressive victory was in late 2019 at the Breeders' Cup, pulling off a gate-to-wire upset at 45/1. Since then, his best placing was 3rd in the San Felipe Stakes. He has yet to win as a three-year-old and it would be very shocking to see him getting that first victory versus a field as deep as the Kentucky Derby. Going into the Derby this weekend, this colt gets Julien Leparoux on board for the first time and will look to work out a stalking trip. Although he will be a huge price, it might be worth including this runner on the bottom half of your superfecta tickets. This longshot might be capable of hitting the board if positioned well, despite the huge odds.
5. Major Fed (James Graham) - 50/1
His two best efforts are runner-up finishes in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds and most recently a second-place finish in the Indiana Derby. Despite those tries, he is yet to beat horses outside of the maiden ranks. His Speed Figures are significantly below all of the main players in the Derby, and this colt, although racing well and hitting the board in his most recent, would need many things to go right to hit the board. There are more intriguing longshots in this field. Toss.
6. King Guillermo (Samy Camacho) - 20/1
Another lightly-raced colt with only five starts under his belt, including two maiden efforts and two graded-stakes tries. He enters Saturday in sharp form off a runner-up finish to Nadal, losing by three lengths to a horse who, at the time, was topping most Derby contender watch lists. Although he has not raced since May of this year, his two most recent works at Churchill Downs - 5 furlongs in 59.2, and 5 furlongs in 58.1 - are exceptionally impressive, and this colt has passed every eye test in those workouts. He could definitely outrace his longshot odds.
7. Money Moves (Javier Castellano) - 30/1
Tries not only graded stakes for the first time, but stakes in general as his only three starts have come versus maidens, and twice versus optional claiming company. His most recent effort was trying two turns for the first time in a 1 1/8th-mile contest versus older, making his first start in over four months. The decision to enter this horse in the Derby was definitely a late one. This $975,000 yearling purchase could garner a lot more betting attention down from his 30-1 ML odds, but hasn't shown enough (yet) to make my tickets.
8. South Bend (Tyler Gaffalione) - 50/1
Speaking of late entries, this colt was entered on the morning of September 1, just hours before the post positions were drawn. He’s coming off a fourth-place effort in the Travers Stakes. He started his career off strong, winning his first three efforts, but has since gone 0-9. South Bend is the type of horse with one late move who projects to be right at the back of the pack early, hoping for some faster fractions early or clear running room late. His closing style isn't ideal in a race like this that doesn’t project to have a whole lot of pace up front early. Pass.
9. Mr. Big News (Gabriel Saez) - 50/1
Rounding out the trio without qualifying points, this runner was another late entry into the Derby. His best win came in the Oaklawn Stakes on April 11, where fractions were favorable to closers, and this one was able to rally from very far back in the field. He's another one-move closer that will need a similar scenario to his Oaklawn Stakes effort. While it is possible that they mix it up early and generate speed, it does not seem likely. Pass.
10. Thousand Words (Florent Geroux) - 15/1
Turned heads pulling off the 9-1 upset last time out in the Shared Belief Stakes, taking down Honor A.P. in a gate-to-wire effort. Although two poor efforts in the San Felipe and Oaklawn Stakes de-railed most hype around this colt, he seems to be rounding back into the form we saw last year at two, and now is one of only a handful in here entering sharp off a victory. He showed capable of carrying his speed a very long way in his most recent, but the Derby will be even longer. Expect him involved in the pace scenario early, and that alone warrants a much closer look.
11. Necker Island (Miguel Mena) - 50/1
This colt already has 10 starts with two victories to his name, both of those coming last year at the age of two. This colt was claimed in June and has already made two starts for new connections, both versus stakes company, with both efforts being third-place finishes. Although it does look like he can handle the 1 and 1/4th distance of the Derby, there are concerns if he thrives going more than one turn. At post time, this colt will be one of the longest shots on the board, and clearly looks overmatched.
12. Sole Volante (Luca Panici) - 30/1
Looked like a major contender in the Belmont Stakes, coming in off two very impressive rallying efforts, first in the Tampa Bay Derby running second to King Guillermo, then a victory versus optional claiming company. But a poor effort in the Belmont Stakes led to a sixth-place finish beaten 15-lengths. Returning to racing two turns and getting another try at the longer distance should help this runner work out a closing effort. It’s possible he gets up in time to round out your trifecta or superfecta wagers, but he won't be making my ticket.
13. Attachment Rate (Joe Talamo) - 50/1
His only victory came versus maiden company in early February, racing at Gulfstream Park over a sloppy track. Since then, his best effort has actually proven to be his most recent, a runner-up finish to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby. No Art Collector here is a small win for the psyche, but he would need to be substantially better than he's shown lately, and it just doesn't seem like that is going to be the case as his Speed Figures pale in comparison to the rest of the field, and he just has not shown enough.
14. Winning Impression (Joe Rocco Jr.) - 50/1
He will most likely be the longest shot on the board at post time. He’s lost his most recent two Derby preps by over a combined 24 lengths and possesses the lowest Speed Figures in the race. He is overmatched and will be well out of it from the break to the finish. If searching for longshots to out-race their odds, look elsewhere.
15. Ny Traffic (Paco Lopez) - 20/1
His most recent four defeats have been by narrow margins, losing by no more than a length and a half. Consistency has been the shining point on this runner, hitting the board in 7 of 9 career starts, mostly versus quality competition.
Projected to be very close to the pace in this year's Kentucky Derby, expect this runner to be involved in the mix early, with all signs pointing to him being able to carry his speed a very long way. He should be bet down from his morning line odds due to his most recent few efforts, and could be someone to rate highly in your exotic bets.
16. Honor A.P. (Mike Smith) - 5/1
In 2020, this ridgling has created quite a rivalry with Authentic. Their first meeting saw Authentic landing in the Winner’s Circle, but next time it was Honor A.P. turning the tables on June 20 in the Santa Anita Derby, capitalizing off a perfect trip. He enters Saturday off a runner-up finish to Thousand Words, working out a late rally in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar after a less-than-ideal start. Although he is yet to race outside of California, he's either won or finished second in all five of his career races. He should be positioned well to have a late shot at tracking down some of the frontrunners.
17. Tiz the Law (Manny Franco) - 3/5
He has lived up to the hype thus far, dazzling in all the prep-races and of course an eye-catching victory in the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes. He does have the unfortunate draw of post 17, where no horse has won out of since the Derby started using the gate in 1930. But if anyone is going to overcome that post, it will be this colt.
Blessed with tactical speed and versatility, look for him to be no further back than eighth early-on if he isn't able to be positioned any closer. It's his powerful kick that's given him the edge late, and expect no different on Saturday as he's able to kick away and secure the victory late in the deep stretch.
18. Authentic (John Velazquez) - 8/1
Comes in off a very impressive victory in the Haskell Stakes, leading every step of the way and holding off a solid late charge from Ny Traffic. This colt only has one blemish on his record, a runner up finish to Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby.
Along with Honor A.P., he is yet to race outside of California, but has looked the part defeating quality rivals in graded stakes races. He has more than enough early speed to overcome the difficult outside draw and should be a huge factor early-on in the mile, being forwardly placed. A must-include somewhere in your exotics.
2020 Kentucky Derby Trifecta Pick
1. Tiz the Law
2. Honor A.P.
3. Thousand Words
