College football betting gets treated to a clash of AAC Titans as the Memphis Tigers host the UCF Knights Saturday afternoon.
The Tigers won the 2019 AAC title over Cincinnati but lost the two previous championship games to the Knights in a pair of electrifying shootouts. Now, UCF is looking to reclaim its crown and was the betting favorite to do so before the season, but can Memphis show it has the stuff to defend the AAC throne?
Let’s take a look at our best college football predictions for UCF at Memphis, scheduled for Saturday, October 17 at 3:30 ET.
Central Florida Golden Knights vs Memphis Tigers betting preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful afternoon for football in Memphis. The forecast is calling for mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid-60s. There is expected to be a roughly 10 mile per hour wind gusting towards the north west endzone. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
UCF: Greg McCrae RB (Probable), Marlon Williams WR (Probable), Tre Nixon WR (Questionable), Parker Boudreau OL (Questionable), Landon Woodson DL (Questionable).
Memphis: John Cartwright DL (Out), Cameron Fleming RB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Since these two AAC powers started duking out for the conference title in 2017, they have met four times with UCF going 3-1 ATS. Find more NCAA football betting trends for UCF vs. Memphis.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
UCF started its season strong with a 49-21 win over Georgia Tech as 10-point faves. They followed that up with 51-28 win over East Carolina, but failed to cover the 28-point chalk. Then the wheels fell off, as they dropped a 34-26 decision to Tulsa as 20.5 favorites. What’s the most shocking part about the loss, is that the Knights led by 18 at one point.
While QB Dillon Gabriel threw for 330 yards, he struggled a bit with his accuracy, completing just 54.9 percent of his passes, while the run game averaged just 3.7 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Memphis has played just two games this season due to COVID-19 protocols, their last being a 30-27 loss at Southern Methodist as 1.5-point road dogs. The Tigers continue to put up big numbers on offense, but they can’t stop anyone.
So, with each team already having one conference loss, this game is of the utmost importance if either team hopes to return to the conference championship game, but I expect the Knights to have the edge in this one.
UCF will come into this game ticked off after letting that game against Tulsa slip away in the second half. But more importantly, the Tigers are allowing 385.6 yards per game through the air, and you know the Knights, with all their weapons in the passing game, love to sling it.
PREDICTION: UCF -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
When you first see a total of 73.5 for a football game, even a college one, you might have to sit back and do a double-take. But that’s exactly what the number is for this game is, and as shocking as it may be, that will only be the third-highest total in the last five meetings between these two teams.
They played with a total of 80 in the 2017 AAC Championship Game, and one of 80.5 the following October. While those games went 1-1 Over/Under, I’m partial to the Over in this matchup.
We mentioned just how bad the Tigers’ defense has been through their first two games this season, but the Knights’ D hasn’t been much better, particularly against the run, where they're allowing teams to rumble for 212 yards per game. With Memphis averaging a hair over 500 yards per game at this point, including 217.5 per game on the ground, the scoreboard should light up early and often in this one.
PREDICTION: Over 73.5 (-110)
Team to Score First Pick
Both of these teams have the ability to strike at any point in this game, but UCF has certainly done a better job of starting games with a bang. UCF is averaging 11 first-quarter points per game this season, while Memphis has scored a total of 10 first-quarter points in their first two games. With the Tigers having a couple of slow starts, and likely still shaking off some rust, the Knights are a good bet to score first.
PREDICTION: UCF (-127)
UCF vs Memphis betting card
- UCF -3.5 (-110)
- Over 73.5 (-110)
- Team to Score First - UCF (-127)
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