Denny Hamlin has caught and passed Tyler Reddick in the standings, as well as the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series odds, with 19 of 36 races in the books.
Meanwhile, Kyle Larson is falling fast as the losses continue to pile up.
Let's look at the latest NASCAR Cup Series odds.
NASCAR Cup Series odds
| Driver Name |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 33% | +203 |
| Tyler Reddick | 18% | +456 |
| Ryan Blaney | 12% | +733 |
| Christopher Bell | 11% | +809 |
| Kyle Larson | 9% | +1011 |
| Chase Briscoe | 7% | +1329 |
| Chase Elliott | 6% | +1567 |
| Ty Gibbs | 4% | +2400 |
Odds as of 7-9. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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NASCAR Cup Series odds movement
- Kyle Larson (+650 to +1011) has been the biggest faller over the past month. He still hasn't won a race since May 2025.
- Chase Elliott (+1000 to +1567) is also falling as Hendrick Motorsports struggles in general.
NASCAR Cup Series favorites
Denny Hamlin (+203)
Denny Hamlin ripped off three straight wins before back-to-back struggles on road/street courses.
He got back on the beam with a third at Chicagoland when last seen and is the clear-cut leader in laps led (854) in 2026.
Tyler Reddick (+456)
Tyler Reddick has run last in back-to-back races heading into Atlanta. He's fallen from +350 to +456 over the last month.
Still, he had a tremendous pad on the playoff cut-off line after his early three-race win streak.
Ryan Blaney (+733)
Ryan Blaney has pulled off seven straight Top 10s to rise up to third in the points standings.
👍 "I think every driver likes that racetrack."
— SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Ch. 90) (@SiriusXMNASCAR) July 4, 2026
Ryan @Blaney is excited to return to @ChicagolndSpdwy, bumps and all.
Full Hour: https://t.co/MKhd9eLpQA pic.twitter.com/rxplh4ZcUE
Blaney recorded an average driver rating of 90+ in six of those efforts.
NASCAR Cup Series recent winners
| Season | Driver | Race wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kyle Larson (2) | 3 |
| 2024 | Joey Logano (3) | 4 |
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | 3 |
| 2022 | Joey Logano (2) | 4 |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | 10 |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | 5 |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch (2) | 5 |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | 3 |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | 8 |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson (7) | 5 |
NASCAR Cup Series betting trends
- Team Penske has taken three of the last four championships.
- Hendrick Motorsports has the most overall titles (15).
- The last driver to go back-to-back was Jimmie Johnson in 2010, when he completed an unprecedented five-peat.
NASCAR Cup Series Odds FAQs
Denny Hamlin is the current favorite to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Kyle Larson won his second NASCAR Cup Series title in 2025.
