Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal is the new (but somewhat old) main event on a loaded fight card for UFC 251 betting on Saturday, July 11. UFC odds have the reigning UFC Welterweight Champion Usman as a -300 favorite with the "BMF" titleholder Masvidal installed as a +230 underdog.
UFC betting fans are likely more excited for this updated main event than the original headline set for UFC 251, the first of four events held at “Fight Island” on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
We break down the UFC betting odds for this welterweight title bout and give our best picks and predictions for UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal.
Usman vs Masvidal UFC 251 odds
| Method of Victory | Kamaru Usman | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -300 | +230 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +175 | +340 |
| Win by points | +150 | +1,100 |
| Win by submission | +1,200 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Usman vs Masvidal betting preview
The reigning champion Usman enters UFC 251 on a 15-fight winning streak and is a perfect 10-0 in his UFC career. He's fresh off a TKO victory over Colby Covington at UFC 245 last December. In his previous fight before that he dominated Tyron Woodley over the full 25 minutes to claim the welterweight title.
The "Nigerian Nightmare" began his career as an expert wrestler and is at his best when he wears down his opponent over the course of the fight. But he has since rounded out his talents, becoming just as impressive on his feet.
Masvidal was reportedly the UFC's first choice months ago to face Usman, but contract negotiations broke down and the promotion pivoted to No. 1 contender Gilbert Burns. When Burns withdrew on July 3 after testing positive for COVID-19, the UFC circled back to Masvidal and agreed on a contract — six days before the fight.
That's not going to stop "Gamebred" from looking to build on a monumental 2019, which saw him end a 16-month layoff by earning a second-round knockout of Darren Till in March, record the fastest KO in UFC history when he dropped Ben Askren with a flying knee five seconds into their fight at UFC 239, and then win the symbolic 'BMF' belt in November by getting a TKO victory over Nate Diaz in the main event at UFC 244.
Many considered Masvidal the UFC's top fighter in 2019, but there are questions about his conditioning heading into UFC 251: he hasn't had a fight since that win over Diaz, and he accepted this fight on very short notice. There's also the issue of Masvidal's weight loss — he said that he weighed 192 pounds on Sunday, and he made the 170-pound weigh-in on Friday. Will cutting 22 pounds in less than a week have any adverse effects on Gamebred's performance?
Usman vs Masvidal Tale of the Tape
| Kamaru Usman | Jorge Masvidal | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 16-1 (6 KO) | Record | 35-13 (15 KO) |
Usman vs Masvidal UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Masvidal +230 - Usman was a strong favorite against Gilbert Burns, and even though Masvidal was originally the preferred choice for this fight, he's an even bigger underdog now, likely based on the fact that he signed up for the fight on less than a week's notice.
But that could actually work in Masvidal's favor: Usman has been preparing this entire time to face Burns, a fighter who is stronger at grappling than striking, and whom Usman also held a five-inch reach advantage over. Now he faces Masvidal, who is the complete opposite — taller, longer and a far more lethal striker.
Plus, all the pressure is on Usman to defend his title, as he will likely shift his tactics back to focusing on wrestling and making this a ground fight. Meanwhile Masvidal comes is with nothing to lose: he either wins the belt...or loses as the guy that took on a title fight a week before it was scheduled.
It's a tall order to ask a guy to step in and beat the welterweight champion, riding a 15-match win streak, on such short notice, but if anyone in the division can pull it off, it's the "BMF" in the sport. Masvidal is entering his first UFC title fight in his 49th pro appearance, the second-longest wait ever. He's going to be hungry and I think the value is just too good to pass up, so I'm siding with the (storybook) upset.
PREDICTION: Fight to go the distance No -190 - While he says he's still been training, there's still no way that "Gamebred" is at his peak fitness. And going against Usman, who possesses incredible cardio, one thing seems clear: the longer this fight goes on, the more it favors the champ.
While his wrestling game is underrated, Masvidal's best chance of winning is by KO or TKO, so expect him to try and keep the fight upright and take some chances to put the "Nigerian Nightmare" to sleep. But that could also leave him exposed against Usman, who showed against Covington that he can throw punches as well, so I think - one way or another - we see this title fight end early.
PREDICTION: Fight to end by KO/TKO -140 - Eight of Usman's last 10 fights have gone the distance, and his fight against Burns had the looks of another war of attrition, but inserting Masvidal totally flips the script as he will try to turn this into an all-or-nothing brawl.
I've already said I don't think this fight will go the distance, and considering both fighters combined for just three submission victories in 65 career fights, a KO or TKO seems like the most likely outcome to end this match early.
More UFC 251 predictions
Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal is just one of many exciting fights slated for the UFC 251 card. Check out our best picks and predictions for these other bouts taking place on July 11:
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas
Amanda Ribas vs. Paige VanZant
