The Toronto Argonauts welcome the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to BMO Field tonight.
The odds for this game have flipped with Hamilton now installed as a slim favourite, and my Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts predictions are betting on their offense to have a big day.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this Week 5 showdown on Friday, July 4.
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts prediction
My Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts pick: Tiger-Cats team total Over 28.5 (-115 at BET99)
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats opened as 1.5-point underdogs this week but have been hammered by sharp bettors. The spread has now jumped the fence and moved past the key number of 3, with the Ticats now installed at -4.5.
The value on the moneyline/spread is long gone, but there's value on Hamilton's team total ahead of tonight's matchup against the Toronto Argonauts.
The Argos are coming off their first win of the year after beating the Redblacks 29-16. However, Ottawa came away without a single point from three trips inside the red zone, including a fumble and a blocked kick that were returned more than 100 yards for Toronto touchdowns.
While they had a formidable stop unit last year, Toronto lost six starters from that defense. Two of the holdovers on D were defensive end Derek Parish and star linebacker Wynton McManis, but both will miss their second straight game this week.
Those departures have been felt in a big way this year, with Toronto ranking second-last in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency (98.7), yards allowed per rush (5.5), and turnovers forced (5).
Toronto has a short four-day turnaround before hosting the Tabbies this week. The Ticats looked like a different team coming off their bye, beating Montreal 35-17 as underdogs in Week 4.
Star quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell leads Hamilton, and he's surrounded by one of the most talented receiving corps in the league. That aerial attack should shred the Argos D and finish the drives that Ottawa was unable to last week.
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts same-game parlay (SGP)
Tiger-Cats team total Over 28.5
Tiger-Cats alt spread -2.5
Hamilton's defense also showed improvement last week, with standout rookie linebacker Devin Veresuk making his first career start in the middle. The Ticats held the Als to just 226 net yards, and now they face a Toronto offense that has struggled.
The Argos cut All-Star running back Ka'Deem Carey before Week 1, seemingly confident that Miyan Williams and Deonta McMahon could replace him. However, they've been unable to find running room, and both are sidelined with injuries this week.
That puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Nick Arbuckle, who is a significant step down from injured starter Chad Kelly and is operating behind the league's lowest-rated offensive line.
I expect the Ticats to eclipse their team total, but I also like the Tabbies' defense to do its part and lead Hamilton to a win of at least three points.
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Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts odds
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts live odds
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts opening odds
- Spread: Hamilton +1.5 (-110) | Toronto -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Hamilton +105 | Toronto -125
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts trend
Hamilton has covered the spread in the last three head-to-head matchups. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts.
How to watch Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts and game info
| Location | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Friday, 7-4-2025 |
| Kick-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN |
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Drew Wolitarsky WR (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out).
Argonauts: Chad Kelly QB (Out), Miyan Williams RB (Out), Deonta McMahon RB (Out), Darius Ciraco C (Out), Bryan Cox Jr. DE (Out), Derek Parish DE (Out), Wynton McManis LB (Out).
Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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