Boxing’s sharpest tactician returns to the ring against an undefeated challenger as Shakur Stevenson defends his lightweight crown against William Zepeda. Stevenson remains unbeaten and largely unchallenged, but Zepeda’s aggressive pace could push him to a tough fight.
Stevenson is a huge -1,000 favorite over +600 underdog Zepeda. Here are my Stevenson vs. Zepeda predictions and free picks from the Louis Armstrong Stadium in Queens.
Stevenson vs Zepeda prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Stevenson moneyline (-1200 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Stevenson to win by decision (-200 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
This fight pits the fundamentally gifted, defensive specialist Shakur Stevenson against the always attacking William Zepeda in a bout that at one time was a premier fight for the lightweight division, though it has lost some of its luster in recent months.
That comes mainly because Zepeda struggled mightily not once, but twice, in bouts with Tevin Farmer that were designed to be a tune-up for Stevenson, and looked even worse when Floyd Schofield needed less than two minutes to knock Farmer out.
Still, this is a bout between an undefeated champion and an undefeated challenger, and a chance for Stevenson to show what he's made of against an opponent who will aggressively pursue him for the duration of the bout.
Stevenson is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, and from a tactical perspective, he may be the best when it comes to doing his homework and developing a game plan. He's a neutralizer in the mold of Bernard Hopkins and Andre Ward, where his focus is to take away his opponent's best weapon and have them fight to his cadence, which he controls with blistering fast hand speed and excellent defensive skills.
The only knock on Stevenson is that his strong sense of self-awareness makes him come across as risk-adverse, particularly because he will not push more than he has to if he feels he's winning the fight, which in turn has drawn the ire of fight fans tired of watching him outclass his opponents in snoozers that go the full distance.
While Stevenson is so talented that he could turn it on when he has to, he hasn't come across someone who has been able to get him to that point, and Stevenson has made it clear that's a problem he's happy to have as an undefeated three-division champion.
Zepeda is a cookie-cutter pressure fighter who uses a high work rate and excellent conditioning to stay busy and wear other boxers down. As he was making his way up the rankings, Zepeda looked the part of a true elite, but the poor performances against Farmer have many doubting he has much of a chance now that he's finally fighting Stevenson. One thing that may work in Zepeda's favor is that the ring size for the Riyadh Season cards is smaller than average, meaning that he won't have to cover as much distance to get to Stevenson.
At the same time, Stevenson's precision punching means he could get outworked by Zepeda, giving him scoring opportunities on the merit of being active. However, Zepeda couldn't cut off the ring against Farmer, and the defensive-minded veteran exposed Zepeda's inability to break down his opponent's guard.
Even with the smaller ring, Stevenson's speed and mobility will still tell the story of the fight, and he may even feel comfortable enough to let his hands go if he feels Zepeda is overmatched to send a message to his critics. Either way, this is Stevenson's fight to lose, and he’s the pick.
Best best analysis
The shorter ring should benefit Zepeda, but not enough to close the skill gap. Ultimately, Stevenson might have this fight wrapped up by the middle rounds, and he could either resort to potshotting Zepeda on the outside or take a more aggressive approach if Zepeda's offense is completely nullified.
While Stevenson's combination punching and the accumulation of blows could down a stylistically paralyzed Zepeda, Stevenson will pull himself back before overcommitting, and he's never been a knockout puncher to begin with. My best bet for the fight is Stevenson to win by decision.
Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda odds
| Method of victory | Shakur Stevenson | William Zepeda |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -1200 | +700 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +220 | +1000 |
| Win by points or decision | -200 | +2200 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-8.
Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda tale of the tape
| Stevenson | Zepeda | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 68 inches | Reach | 69.5 inches |
| 23-0 | Record | 33-0 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 27 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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