Amanda Serrano is set to face off against Erika Cruz for the undisputed featherweight title as the featured boxing attraction this weekend from Madison Square Garden.
Serrano hopes to continue her dominance as one of women boxing’s best fighters, and she’ll need to get past Cruz if she hopes for a rematch with rival Katie Taylor.
Here are our picks and predictions for Serrano vs. Cruz from New York.
Amanda Serrano vs Erika Cruz odds
|Method of victory||Amanda Serrano||Erika Cruz|
|Win by KO/TKO||+280||+1,200|
|Win by points or decision||+230||+700|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of January 31, 2023.
Amanda Serrano vs Erika Cruz betting predictions
Picks made on January 31. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Amanda Serrano vs Erika Cruz betting preview
It does seem that Serrano fights in every weight class below lightweight. Even so, featherweight is where the Puerto Rican bombshell has competed for the longest and is at her most effective. She bounced back strong after the loss to Taylor with a win over Sarah Mahfoud and will become an undisputed champion with a victory over Cruz.
Serrano is 43-2-1 with 30 KOs and has won titles in five different weight classes. She has excellent power, great boxing technique, and doesn’t seem to be slowing down any time soon. There are a lot of pundits out there who thought Serrano deserved the win against Taylor, and she’s doing her part to try and get her conqueror back in the ring for another fight.
She is one of the rare power-punchers with a 69% KO percentage and an average fight time of 4.39 rounds. If Serrano can put her combos together early, she’s likely to spark her opponents out. Otherwise, her dedication to body punches and power boxing has made her a bridge too far for all but the very best in the sport to cross.
Mexico’s Cruz will only be fighting for the third time outside of Mexico, but she hopes it’ll bring her the biggest win of her career. She is 15-1 with 3 KOs and doled out a serious beating to long-reigning champion Jelena Mrdjenovich in her last bout.
Cruz is an aggressive pressure fighter that isn’t afraid of letting her hands go. While she has an average fight time of 5.9 rounds, Cruz has excellent conditioning and can likely mix it up with Serrano if things start to get chippy.
Expect these two to fight it out early and see who will begin to wilt, be it under Serrano’s power or Cruz’s pressure. It’s amazing that Serrano has had such a prolonged run in the sport, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we see some wear and tear in a grueling scrap.
Amanda Serrano vs Erika Cruz boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Serrano ML
Despite running up and down the scales with wins and titles, Serrano is at her best at featherweight. She has admitted as much going into this fight, saying that she intends to remain there unless she gets her rematch with Taylor. Her speed, power, and reflexes still hold up, though Cruz’s style might test her here.
Cruz isn’t as overmatched as the odds indicate. She’s tough and puts on a tremendous amount of pressure. Serrano is an active all-time great, but it’s not out of the question that Cruz’s physicality can present problems for the battle-tested pro.
Serrano is too resourceful at featherweight to get overwhelmed like Mrdjenovich was, and Cruz might not be as willing to engage once she gets a taste of Serrano’s power. We like Serrano to win on Saturday night in Manhattan.
Prediction: Serrano moneyline (-700 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Serrano by decision
Cruz is going to come forward, but she’s not an open target. If this fight does take place on the inside, it’ll take away Serrano’s power a bit. As good of a puncher as Serrano is, she’s still gone the distance in her last four fights.
Even Serrano's last stoppage happened in the ninth round. Cruz should be busy enough and tough enough to take her shots and make her work for the duration of the fight. Even if it does get a little lopsided toward the end, we see this going the distance.
Getting Serrano on the scorecards at -135 is great value that I'll be taking.
Prediction: Serrano by decision (-135 at DraftKings)