The popular Emanuel Navarrete makes his 2025 debut defending his junior lightweight title against former Filipino Olympian Charly Suarez in our featured boxing attraction of the weekend.
Navarrete hopes to continue his reign as the top fighter at 130 pounds, while Suarez looks to make the most out of his first world title shot.
Boxing odds have Navarrete as the favorite at -500, while Suarez is a +360 underdog. Here are my best free betting picks and Navarrete vs. Suarez predictions from Pechanga Arena in San Diego.
Navarrete vs Suarez prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Navarette moneyline (-500 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Over 10.5 Rounds (-125 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
After a failed attempt to win a title in a fourth weight class, Emanuel Navarrete returned to 130 pounds and put a conclusive beating on Oscar Valdez in his last fight to reaffirm his claim as the division’s top fighter. While Lamont Roach may have something to say about that, he’s currently pursuing bigger challenges at lightweight, leaving Navarrete to stay busy against former Olympian Charly Suarez.
This is a significant step up for Suarez, but his more tactical style could make him a worthy opponent. Navarrete, a champion across three weight classes, fell short of a fourth title when Denis Berinchyk outworked him in a listless performance. Most of that came down to Berinchyk’s ability to prevent Navarrete from working inside and using his size advantage to neutralize his offense.
Navarrete can’t consistently compete at lightweight, but at 130 pounds, he remains the man to beat. Many expected his rematch with Valdez to be a war, but it turned into a four-round blowout that cemented his dominance.
Suarez is relatively unknown by comparison. He’s a former Olympian who represented the Philippines in the 2016 Games but didn’t turn pro until 2019. Since then, he’s compiled an 18-0 record, earning his shot at a world title after stopping Jorge Castaneda last September in three rounds.
He’s a disciplined, technically sound boxer with deep amateur experience, though at 36 years old and entering his first world title fight, his ceiling may be limited.
Navarrete’s relentless pressure and awkward volume punching usually break down opponents, but Suarez’s sturdy defense and clean technique suggest he might keep things interesting for a few rounds. If Suarez can briefly slow Navarrete’s attack, he may have early success, but the champion’s pace and bodywork should overwhelm him as the fight progresses.
Though we’ve seen upsets lately, this doesn’t look like one of those nights. Expect Navarrete to break down Suarez and retain his title.
Best best analysis
Suarez’s technical approach and composure could allow him to land eye-catching counters early and buy himself time before Navarrete’s body assault begins to take over. While Navarrete made quick work of Valdez, Suarez’s style is more balanced, and he should hold up longer.
If the stoppage comes, expect it late, so my best bet is the fight going Over 10.5 Rounds.
Emanuel Navarrete vs Charly Suarez odds
| Method of victory | Emanuel Navarrete | Charly Suarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -500 | +360 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -115 | +800 |
| Win by points or decision | +185 | +750 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-10.
Emanuel Navarrete vs Charly Suarez tale of the tape
| Navarrete | Suarez | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| Junior Lightweight | Weight Class | Junior Lightweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 39-2-1 | Record | 18-0 |
| 32 | Wins by KO | 10 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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