Sebastian Fundora vs Tim Tszyu Predictions, Picks & Odds for July 19

Tim Tszyu aims to recapture junior middleweight gold from Sebastian Fundora, who dethroned him in a gritty and bloody battle last year.

Tszyu is poised to avenge his loss against the tall, but fundamentally flawed Fundora on the undercard of Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios.

Tszyu is a -155 favorite over +125 underdog Fundora in the boxing odds. Here are my Fundora vs. Tszyu predictions and free betting picks from the MGM Garden Arena in Las Vegas. 

Fundora vs Tszyu prediction and pick

• My fight prediction: Tszyu moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 10.5 rounds (-160 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis
Things couldn’t have worked out better for Sebastian Fundora when he came in on a few days' notice to replace an injured Keith Thurman last year to face Tim Tszyu.

Not only was the 6-foot-5 Fundora a different opponent for Tszyu to fight, but a clash of heads led to a frighteningly gross cut on Tszyu as blood poured from his head early in the fight until the end. Fundora was able to do just enough to win a split decision and become a world champion. 

Tszyu didn’t get back on track right away, and his rush to return to the ring didn’t pay off as he was brutally stopped in three rounds by Bakhram Murtazaliev, the best-kept secret in the junior middleweight division.

He took the time off he needed to blast out Joey Spencer in four rounds last April, looking closer to form than he did against Murtazaliev to set up the rematch. Despite the losses, Tszyu remains one of the best fighters at 154 due to his strong fundamentals and his above-average speed and power for the division.

As unique a competitor as Fundora is, he fights against his strengths by giving up his incredible height and reach by staying too long on the inside.

Fundora works best when he’s patient and uses his long jab while increasing his punch output once the fight gets to midrange. However, Fundora is happy to give up his height and reach to fight on the inside, where he’s defensively weak, and he’s been knocked out before when he abandoned his range and let Brian Mendoza run him over. 

The fact of the matter is that Tszyu was effectively blind from the cut and the blood loss likely hampered what he could do in the ring, but he was hitting Fundora with almost everything he threw. Tszyu now has the benefit of a full camp, leading him to be better prepared for Fundora, and his superior punching power and technique will be enough to carry the fight.

If nothing else, Fundora is going to let Tszyu in, and if he couldn’t fight him off with blood pouring down his face, he’s going to have even less luck this time. 

With the element of surprise no longer an issue, the call is for Tszyu to regain his title and avenge his shock loss.

Best best analysis
Tszyu and Fundora blasted each other in their tightly contested battle and none looked ready to wilt, which is impressive considering Tszyu’s blood staining all corners of the ring. While Tszyu remains the better talent and is getting a full training camp ahead of his second go-round with Fundora, the brutal loss to Murtazaliev might have taken something out of him.

Likewise, Fundora is a volume puncher with questionable defense, but his chin was sturdy enough to take Tszyu’s best shots and keep going forward. This could be a close fight mimicking their first one, so my best bet is that it goes Over 10.5 rounds.

Sebastian Fundora vs Tim Tszyu odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-19.

Sebastian Fundora vs Tim Tszyu tale of the tape

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