Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas Predictions, Picks & Odds for May 4

Naoya Inoue continues his monstrous run atop the boxing pound-for-pound rankings as he faces off with top contender Ramon Cardenas.

Boxing odds have Inoue as the favorite at -5,000 while Cardenas is a +1,500 underdog. Here are my free Inoue vs. Cardenas predictions and betting picks for the May 4 bout.

Inoue vs Cardenas prediction and pick

• My fight prediction: Inoue moneyline (-5000 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet: Inoue to win in Rounds 1-6 (-160 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis
Inoue hasn't fought in the United States since 2022, and his return stateside should serve as a springboard for a much bigger bout in his native Japan by the end of the year. His opponent, the once-beaten Cardenas, will be challenging for a world title for the first time.

Cardenas earned his shot by winning 10 consecutive fights, but there's little in those performances to suggest he can slow Inoue down as the unified champion eyes a mega-fight with Junto Nakatani.

That said, Cardenas may not be as outgunned as the odds suggest. He’s a sharp puncher with decent power and a potential size advantage. We've seen Inoue’s vaunted power look slightly less destructive since moving up to junior featherweight, but he remains one of the sport’s most fearsome punchers, and more importantly, one of its most complete fighters.

While opponents are now lasting longer and forcing Inoue to land more leather, it’s still a tall task to go the distance with him. Every punch he throws carries knockout potential, and he's a lethal body puncher.

There are levels to this game, and Cardenas is likely one or two below where he needs to be to realistically challenge Inoue. In his last fight, Cardenas barely survived against Bryan Acosta, starting strong, but fading badly as he couldn’t keep Acosta off him and suffered a brutal knockdown in round seven.

He banked enough early rounds to scrape out a win, but that kind of performance will get him dismantled against someone like Inoue.

Inoue has carved through several weight classes with brutal efficiency. His fights are masterclasses in control, deception, and trap-setting. He breaks down his opponents physically and mentally, and then doles out punishment with frightening precision.

Only three of his wins have gone the distance, and while he may be close to maxing out his frame at junior featherweight, he still looks as dominant here as he did at bantamweight.

If Cardenas has any chance, it’s in trying to catch Inoue cold with early pressure. Luis Nery found some success in doing so, but even he was overwhelmed once Inoue found his rhythm.

Realistically, Cardenas, who likely wouldn't beat several of Inoue's past victims like Nery or Marlon Tapales, isn’t equipped to do the unthinkable. His defense is shaky, and he lacks the offensive tools to outmaneuver or outgun Inoue over 12 rounds. Inoue is the pick.

Best best analysis
Eight of Inoue’s last eleven knockouts have come before the seventh round, and there’s little reason to believe Cardenas will last much longer. Cardenas doesn’t have the style to frustrate Inoue or keep him honest for very long, and with just a three-month turnaround after a grueling fight, he may have more heart than gas in the tank.

Inoue’s ability to start fast and break opponents down systematically points to another early finish. My best bet is Inoue to win between rounds 1-6.

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-4.

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic