Mikaela Mayer vs. Alycia Baumgardner is scheduled for 10 rounds in the super featherweight division as the co-main event of the Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall card this weekend in London.
There is no love lost between these two, and their jawing through the press and social media is about to come to a head with three titles on the line.
Mayer, the WBO and IBF champion, comes in as a solid -270 favorite. Baumgardner, the WBC champion, is the underdog here at +205.
Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner odds
|Method of victory||Mikaela Mayer||Alycia Baumgardner|
|Win by KO/TKO||+850||+600|
|Win by points or decision||-190||+400|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of September 8, 2022.
Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner betting predictions
Picks made on September 9. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner
While the Shields/Marshall class is stealing all the headlines, there is no love lost between these two as super featherweight supremacy is on the line alone with three world titles. Baumgardner is the bigger puncher of the two, but Mayer is seen as having the total package with multiple paths to victory.
The undefeated Mayer has shown high ring IQ, a varied skill set, and has succeeded against tough opposition to get to where she’s at today. Her tactical boxing also includes solid body work and great conditioning.
Baumgardner is known for her pressure and power. She has the kind of punching ability and aggression that is unique for female boxing, more along the lines of Anne Wolfe, and she’s a strong finisher with 7 knockouts in 11 wins. She will have to rely on her offense to overwhelm and limit Mayer’s boxing talents.
This is a matador vs. bull situation that we’ll see play out over 10 rounds. Mayer has to fight cautiously so as to not get caught by a wild shot, but not too passively where she’ll be giving up rounds and allow herself to be outworked.
If Baumgardner just loads up and holds out for a home run shot, she’ll dig herself in a hole and only be left with the predictable option of throwing desperate haymakers until the end of the fight. There is the potential for this fight to get dramatic at any point.
Though Mayer seems to be a safe pick, she’ll need to be on her game from bell to bell as Baumgardner will not stop hunting her down.
Mikaela Mayer vs Alycia Baumgardner boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Mayer ML (-270)
A big reason why Mayer is closing close to a 3/1 favorite is that she’s the better technician, whereas Baumgardener comes off as one-dimensional.
With only pressure and the hopes of squaring her up for a straight shot, Baumgardner is going to look out of her depth early on. Even if she does give up the early rounds due to shoring up her energy, or just being unable to pin Mayer down, the underdog needs to play the long game and hope she puts enough damage in early to try and overwhelm her later on.
Mayer isn’t fragile though, and she can stand her ground and fight if all else fails. The gap in skill between the two is just too high for Mayer to be fallen by a wild looping shot.
Baumgardner's sheer athleticism can open up some opportunities, but she’ll end up smothering her own offense by leaping into a clinch or becoming too predictable. We’ll pick Mayer’s skill to carry her towards victory here.
Prediction: Mayer Moneyline (-270 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Mayer by Unanimous Decision
Mayer will outclass Baumgardner, but she isn’t going to take a chance to stop her out of spite. Yes, these two don’t like each other, but there’s not enough bad blood where they’ll suddenly forget that regardless of how you win, you win nonetheless.
If anything, Mayer jumps to an early lead and has to stay cautious heading into the later rounds. Aside from a come from behind TKO delivered by a desperate Baumgardner, all signs point to Mayer outboxing her rival and snatching her WBC title in the process.
The call here is picking Mayer to win by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Mayer to Win by Unanimous Decision (-135 at DraftKings)