Jake Paul vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr Predictions, Picks & Odds for Tonight

Jake Paul returns to the ring this evening for a showdown with former world champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

Riding the momentum from his huge victory over Mike Tyson, Paul looks to secure another high-profile win that’s drawing plenty of attention.

The betting market clearly favors "The Problem Child", who’s currently listed at -575, while Chavez Jr. is the underdog at +400. 

Below are my top Paul vs. Chavez Jr. predictions and free betting picks for tonight’s showdown at the Honda Center in Anaheim.

Ring walk for tonight's main event is expected for 9:00 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on DAZN.

Paul vs Chavez Jr prediction and pick

• My fight prediction: Paul moneyline (-575 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet: Under 8.5 rounds (+160 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis
It might be hard to believe, but at one point, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. was a pretty good fighter. 

The second-generation star was no joke in his prime, but his inability to take his career seriously cost him his middleweight title 13 years ago, and he’s coasted on his famous last name ever since. He remains one of the most reviled boxers of recent memory, right up there with Paul, due to his lack of professionalism and wasted potential.

Following his 2012 decision loss to Sergio Martinez, Chavez Jr. lowered the bar dramatically, fighting nominal opposition with minimal effort, leading to uninspiring wins and humbling defeats. He was pounded into submission by Andrzej Fonfara, quit when Daniel Jacobs broke his nose, and essentially showed up for a paycheck against Saul Alvarez in his biggest showcase bout since then.

He was shockingly upset by former UFC star Anderson Silva in a boxing match, and is coming off a half-hearted win over Uriah Hall last July to secure this payday against Paul.

Paul, meanwhile, faces his first proper boxer since Tommy Fury and his second faded former world champion in a row.

While a prime Chavez was a crushing inside fighter who wore opponents down, those days are long gone. His conditioning and desire are nowhere near what’s needed to deal with Paul’s respectable power, hand speed, and confidence.

It would take a miracle for Chavez to rediscover the drive he hasn’t had in over a decade, especially given he’s been inactive since the Hall fight. That alone is a red flag suggesting he might show up in questionable shape yet again.

Chavez’s embarrassing effort against Hall and the fact that he was outboxed by a 46-year-old Silva make it clear he’s too far gone to change the narrative now. Paul will press the fight, and Chavez will do little more than absorb punches and look for the exit door once things get uncomfortable. Paul is the pick.

Best best analysis
Chavez’s stoppage losses came at the hands of one of the hardest-hitting light heavyweights in the division at the time and an injury-related TKO, but at this stage of his career, he’s got nothing to offer and will likely be satisfied that he’s in the ring.

Paul’s athleticism and power punches will catch Chavez early and often, drawing his resolve from the get-go. Physically, Chavez is tough enough to take Paul’s shots and hang around for the duration of the 10-round fight, but he’s cracked mentally before, and that might be the case the longer the fight goes.

My best bet is that the fight goes Under 8.5 rounds.

Jake Paul vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6-28.

Paul vs Chavez Jr betting splits

The Paul moneyline of -600 has received just 10% of the tickets and 13% of the handle at BetMGM. 

Chavez Jr. has garnered 78% of the tickets and 84% of the handle, while the Draw has received 12% of the tickets and 3% of the handle, respectively.

Jake Paul vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr tale of the tape

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