David Benavidez vs. David Lemieux is scheduled for 12 rounds in the super middleweight division on Saturday, May 21 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, AZ.
Benavidez faces off against the former middleweight champion, with the winner earring an interim WBC title, and a potential shot at Canelo down the line. The boxing world is high on Benavidez, who is a huge -1,600 favorite fighting in front of a hometown crowd. Lemieux, who has won his last two by stoppage, is a +850 underdog.
Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for Benavidez vs. Lemieux on May 21.
David Benavidez vs David Lemieux odds
| Method of victory | David Benavidez | David Lemieux |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -1,600 | +850 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -800 | +1,200 |
| Win by points or decision | +700 | +2,000 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 18, 2022.
David Benavidez vs David Lemieux betting predictions
Picks made on May 18. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
David Benavidez vs David Lemieux betting preview
The calls for Benavidez to fight Alvarez are louder than it has ever been, but Benavidez has risen to the occasion, only to get himself in trouble outside the ring. Undefeated in 25 fights with 22 knockouts, the two-time champion looks to be without equal in the division and has won his last four fights by stoppage.
He has a bit of everything — Power, speed, ring generalship, and a mean streak to make it all come together, but his sense of maturity and discipline seems to be his weakness. He’s a huge favorite here, but how will he respond if Lemieux managed to blast him with his big power shots?
Weight issues and a failed drug test in 2018 stunted his development, but at 25 and still considered to be the boogeyman at super middleweight, he has shown shades of greatness. Against Lemieux, he carries a considerable advantage in height, reach, and size against an opponent that has garnered the reputation of being a glass cannon.
Lemieux can punch, but his chin can’t hold up against a puncher. At middleweight, he was savaged by Marco Antonio Rubio and Gennadiy Golovkin, and he was nearly knocked out in his super middleweight debut against Max Bursak in 2019. He’s faltered some, but Lemieux has shown some growth by battling through rough patches and can carry his power late into fights.
It’s unfortunate that he outgrew middleweight, but he isn’t a cakewalk in any respect. These two are known for their big power, and it will be a small miracle if this fight manages to go the distance.
David Benavidez vs David Lemieux boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction:
Watching Lemieux get his bell rung by Bursak and the nature of his previous stoppages help his chances against Benavidez. Benavidez looked sharp tearing apart Kyrone Davis and Ronald Ellis last year, so he can’t be faulted for having a knockout on his mind against a chinny blown-up middleweight.
It would be a statement win as Lemieux was always mentioned as a possible Canelo opponent at middleweight, and he’ll want to use the crumpled heap that was his opponent to get his point across. From what we’ve seen from Lemieux lately, it’s a surprise that the line is where it is currently.
He’s outgunned against an opponent who can move, punch and overpower him at any point of the fight. He should at least give Benavidez a nice shiner or two early on, but there’s little to like here. This fight has Benavidez written all over it, and Lemieux is going to limit any two-way action after he tastes Benvadiez’s power.
Because Lemieux doesn’t have the instincts or defensive prowess to fight backward, he’ll find the canvas soon enough. We are going with Benavidez here.
Prediction: Benavidez to win (-1,600 at DraftKings)
Best Bet:
A Benavidez stoppage is inevitable, and even that doesn’t bring the odds down to net a solid pickup. His career average for KO rounds is 3.7, meaning that there is a good chance Lemieux makes it out of the early rounds.
Even as he was being punished in his two stoppage losses, Lemieux managed to last before succumbing in the second half of the fight. Lemieux’s power should keep Benavidez weary, but it shouldn’t delay the timetable here. Benavidez will start fast and score the first knockdown of the fight within three rounds, then continue to stalk Lemieux until he puts him out.
We don’t see this fight going past 10 rounds. The best bet here is for Lemieux to live up to his statistical reputation and get knocked out by the end of Round 7. We’re going with Benavidez via 7th round stoppage.
Pick: Benavidez by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 7 (+10,000 at FanDuel)
