| Thread Author | theclaw Post Entries |
|---|---|
theclaw |
Quote Originally Posted by masterkush: I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you? No that was not me, they were talking about the touts. Speaking if touts, you can go to sports monitor of oklahoma city and see the records of touts honest enough to have their picks monitored. My +9.9 net wins ranks 2cd best of all the touts in the playoffs. What seperates myself from all those touts is the number of picks I make, the leaders in win/lose % make few picks, only made 20 picks in entire playoffs, I made 55. The 2cd place made 29 picks, much easier to finish with a higher win/lose % with fewer picks. 3rd was 31 and 4th was 20 again. 5th made 41 and 6th place made 26. You'll see this consistently every year. Sometimes I make 70 and 80 picks, this year I tried to isolate better, more selective spots with the info. Many years I made the most picks or close to the most of any tout. Going back about 4 years ago I had the most net wins +17.6 of any tout I have ever seen on the site , I was more then double the 3rd place tout and only 1 win from doubling the 2cd place tout who was 9.4. To this day I have never seen a tout with that monitor get to +17.6 net wins at any time during the NBA Playoffs. |
|
theclaw |
Quote Originally Posted by masterkush: I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you? Not that I know of. |
|
theclaw |
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: Nice work. Congratulations. Thank you......  |
blowoutgm |
Quote Originally Posted by sandique: One script called for Cavs to not only not win the title but for them to be well beaten so LBJ would be seen to be justified leaving. A title win or close loss would undermine LBJ walking away from the Cavs without inviting any hate for the decision. That script played out perfect. There is a script for every situation, no matter what happens somebody has a script for it. It's like picking both sides then claiming your really good when you win. |
|
theclaw |
NBA FINALS................................
games ---1-0 ATS, won 3 units totals --- 0-0 leans 2-0 2018 NBA PLAYOFFS ............................................ games --- 25-17-1 ATS, won 15.25 units totals --- 8-3 , won 6.4 units 2cd half --- 0-1, lost 1.1 units total plays --- 33-21-1 ATS, won 20.55 units (60.9%) +9.9 net wins including the juice laying -110. leans games --- 13-6-1 ATS leans ML --- 2-1..... 2 wins was +915 series plays --- 1-1, won 2.45 units series parlays --- 0-2, lost 4.57 units total series plays --- 1-3, lost 2.12 |
|
theclaw |
1-0 ATS, won 3 units
Warriors just to tough for Cavs to handle. My Lines work out well enough in finals even with Cavs playing better throughout the playoffs then there regular season rating suggested . That is why we stay the course with the info , things seem to work out at the end of the day, we may have lost a few fading the Cavs but at the end of the day things workout just fine as we stayed the course. we had another very good run, our PR did it again as well with our favorite winning the title, that's 14 of our last 20 favorites have won the title, 15 of 21 counting the Eagles which we did not count since we passed with Wentz injury. Next up is Arena football playoffs and WNBA playoffs as well as week 1 in the NFL where we have never finished with a losing record using our regression plays, going opposite of last year. |
bpickin |
NBA Betting /
Does anyone know if it is better to bet money line game by game or series price?
/
View Post
In a 7 game series you lay the series a price not game by game. The only exception is if your talking about a team down 0-3 like the Cavs are then game by game would likely pay more, but you should never back a team down 0-3 to win series ever..
The reason you lay the series price is game by game you would have to know the exact game a team will win and which games they will lose, if you know all that then you could just bet each individual game being on the team you like to win the series in the right games and against that team in games they would lose, but since you are not going to win every game the first time you lose you lose all your money and need to start over. A team down 0-3 can not lose any game so then backing them every game would pay more but backing teams down 0-3 should never ever be done. Maybe someday a team will pull it off but it could be 10 or 15 or 20 years from now and when they do you would have to be on that 1 team the one time they do it , your odds are better to win the lottery.. |
|
theclaw |
Was not the best of spots to back the team down 2-0 and back at home but the team down did win the 1st half and continue on an incredible run in 1st halves for such teams.
Warriors now in a close-out game, powerhouse teams like the Warriors are very good plays in close-out games, but Warriors are only 1-3 ATS in those games this postseason, I'd expect Warriors to bounce back and get the win and cover game 4, very unlikely such a powerhouse team goes to 1-4 ATS, would be a huge anomaly. MY LINES....................................... Warriors -7.31 over Cavs ......end of season Warriors -9.22 over Cavs ......before injuries to key players 1992 -2017 in all close-out games.....................20-8 ATS with a 1 pt diff .......................13-6 ATS with a 2 pt diff .......................10-4 ATS All Warriors in game 4......................................  Warriors -5.5 over Cavs --- 3.3 units to win 3 units |
|
theclaw |
Another classic example of triple doubles, how many have we've seen this postseason ?
KD 15 of 23, 65.2%, 6 of 9 on 3'3 for an astounding 66.7% with 13 rebs and only 7 assists. Scores 43 pts KD was 3 assist short of a triple double. LBJ 13 of 28 , 46.4%, 1 of 6 on 3's for a not astounding 16.7%, 10 rebs and 11 assist . Scores 33 pts. LBJ gets another triple double but KD was 3 assists short. Who contributed more to help his team in the game ? They guy with a triple double or the guy who did not get a triple double ? So because LBJ got a triple double and KD did not that makes LBJ the better player last night ? Sillest damn thing I've ever heard. KD had 10 more pts, shot 18.8 % better had 3 more rebs but those 4 extra assists LBJ got over KD made him the better player ? All because he got to double in 3 areas but KD only got to double in 2 areas. Yet another triple double for LBJ when he shoots below 50% but he did score well this time, unlike many of his triple doubles. Although a triple double may tells us who is more versatile it certainly does not tell us who the better player is and who contributed more to his team. |
|
theclaw |
Line down to 3.5 even some 3's, books stating they need Warriors tonight and the Warriors to win the series,
Books usual get what they need, not because of the script but because the ave joe uses the wrong info or uses info poorly. Won't be surprised if Warriors win and cover 1st half and the game. Teams down 2-0 and back at ho,me have done very well in 1st halves but not the best situation for backing Cavs tonight . Warriors off 1 ATS win, powerhouse teams actually do well off 1 ATS win if my lines takes them. Most powerhouse teams cover 2 in a row at some point in the series, Warriors did it early in series in 1st round inm games 1 and 2, they failed in round 2 when they just missed covering in game 5 by 1.5 points. But then bounced back and cover 2 straight at the end of series in games 6 and 7.. They most likely will cover 2 straight at some point, I would not play against them here. |
|
theclaw |
Interesting that of all the finals series under a combined 4, in other words series which were more even, only 4 of those series the better team was up 2-0, most of them were 1-1, so more evenly matched teams went 1-1 far more often then not, while more dominate teams go up 2-0 far more often , exactly what you'd expect with the probabilities.
Those 4 more evenly match series with a team up 2-0 is 1-3 ATS in game 3 as the better team being more evenly matched does not cover up 2-0. A small sample size but it points in the right direction of probabilities. Exactly what your'd expect to find based on probabilities. And why we back probabilities. |
|
theclaw |
PR I .................
Warriors 8.62 Cavs (-2.69) PR II................ Warriors 53.29 Cavs 47.59 COMBINED .....Warriors by 17.31 Teams combined OVER 4 when up 2-0 are 4-4 ATS in game 3 of NBA Finals since 92, don't have the lines for 2 teams before 92. MY LINES.................with less then a 4.5 diff to closing line is 3-5 ATS Game 3 is a coin flip , the best probabilities we can give Cavs is 50% at the very best. Considering Warriors up 3-1 lost to Cavs in 2016 and when you add in all the injuries the Warriors have had, the motivation for the Warriors to end this series should be very high , as the longer this plays out the more oppurtunities there will be for another injury to a key player and the possibility the Cavs could come back and win the series just like 2016. Remember 2016 ? Green suspended, Bogurt hurt, Warriors will be ready to make sure things like that won't happen again and the best way to do that is end this thing quick. We don't make plays on that kind of judgement info here guys, we only make plays off our probability methods and history, not off judgement . We pass on the game but we look for the Warriors to win SU and likely cover. |
|
theclaw |
Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM: Dogbite... explain that last nugget please.... 0-10 o/u? 0 overs...10 unders in a game following 15+ off rebs. In other words take the under in game 3. |
|
theclaw |
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: In Series Game 3, winless home teams getting 1 to 7 points are 26-26 ATS. If they are also off a game wherein they grabbed 15+ ORB's, they are 0-10 on the Over/Under totals. 50% about the best odds I'd give the Cavs, this is not an automatic play on team down 2-0 which many times is but not here. |
|
theclaw |
MY LINES IN THE NBA Finals game 3's with a 2-0 series lead.....................................
7-6-1 ATS in all games 4-1-1 with a 4.5 difference or better 3-5 ATS with under 4.5 Past 2 years were under 4.5 and went 0-2 ATS, with Warriors having 2-0 series lead. Past 2 years we had the smallest diff with my lines in 2016 with only a .82 diff and we had the largest difference of any game under 4.5 in 2017 at a 4.05 diff and my lines lost both. My lines will likely win this year. and get closer to the 50-50 mark . My lines could be on either team based on end of season or before the injuries, would think line would be closer to before the injuries which would make Warriors the favorite on my lines at -4.5. I would not count the Warriors out from winning this game and covering the spread, This is not an automatic back the team down 2-0 in the series as many times is the case but not here. Our last play with a 4.5 difference to my lines came in 2008 with Celtics up 2-0 and a 9.5 dog in game 3. My lines had Lakers -4.06 over Celtics, a 5.44 diff on the C's and the Lakers won 87-81 with Celtics getting the cover. Celtics were heads & shoulders better then the Lakers as Lakers received 4 additional desperation pts as well and stilll my lines favored the Celtics by quite a bit.. |
LineHawk |
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin: I look at it this way. If golden state covers game 3 then you have a once in a lifetime game 4 ALLIN scenario on cavs plus the points. I’m sitting out game 3 and hoping it sets up properly for game 4. If golden state covers game 3, I will have my largest wager of the nba season on cavs + points game 4. I will empty all 3 online accounts and max out my bookie on this bet... Possibly even my last bet because the rest of the games wouldn’t mean much to me unless cavs were to make a miraculous comeback... MARK IT DOWN. If golden state covers game 3 AND ONLY IF golden state covers game 3... I would not do that if I where you. Not the series to be making all-in bets against a sweep. |
DoubleUp4Life |
Quote Originally Posted by jpot34: Claw, you'd make a lot more money if you opened your mind to the true realities we all live with! Look at Achillies record and look at mine, look at his in NFL playoffs and look at mine. Look at bob 1-5 record calling the champs past 6 years and my 5-1 over those same years , I don't see it. |
|
DoubleUp4Life |
Actually 6-1 at winning the title while script is in bob was 1-5 over that same period but hey the script is in guys, better read it correctly.
|
|
DoubleUp4Life |
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629: You just don’t get it huh? You think you are the educated one? How is that? Please explain. Let me ask you something chief. This is a serious question: Do you believe the stock market is fully regulated and that the people’s money is 100% safe (not being f@cked with by big corporations and the govt) and do you believe our elections are done straight up? If you say yes to either you are nuts. You ask for evidence yet you have none yourself to support your opinionated claim....Do you understand how dumb you sound when you ask for evidence yet YOU HAVE NONE YOURSELF? You really think the sports leagues and the books are separate in all this? You think every game is won between the lines? Holy sh@t bud. Every game doesn’t have to be f@xed neither does every stock. That’s not how it works almighty one. If they were where would the money come in? Think about it. If you can honestly tell everyone on this site there has NEVER been a game scripted or f@xed in the history of sport then I feel sorry for you. You were on the losing end of one of the biggest fixes in NBA history a few years ago when the Cavs “stole” that series from the dubs. Your ego couldn’t handle it and that was when me and you first went toe to toe. I warned you before the series and I warned you when the dubs were up 3-1. You lost your a$$. You had money lines, spreads and series all pointing to the warriors and....ya lost. It wasn’t because of regression or rims or PR1, PR2, whatever crap you wanna make up for the covers audience. You didnt mention that though in your “look at what I’ve done pat yourself on the back” dictation you wrote to everyone in your bogus thread that’s full of non plays and “leans”. You being those upon yourself man; you think you are the end all be all in here and you are not. I see you and have for a long time. told you before and your ego doesn’t listen....it’s who you know, not what you “think” you know. This applies to everything and everywhere in this society. Go post some leans now. Very classic example of not being educated. Do your homework. You can not prove something does not exist, the burden of proof is on those to prove it does. It can not be proven.that something does not exist. Your entire post is filled with very uneducated info, a very good sports bettor does not make plays in every game, they know when to back off a game, I placed multiple plays everyday for many, many days in a row and rarely finished with a losing record in any given day. In fact, Achilles, one of the most important lessons I learned the past 2 or 3 years is not to force plays which I dad have a tendency to do at times. The past couple of rounds the info I use has somer possible flaws with all the in juries to Warriors starters, with Cavs playing better then their ratings, I reconized these possible flaws and passed on those games or only posted leans, that Achillies makes me a smarter, better sports bettor. I talk last year how this year we get more into specific spots, not just using the info by itself, talked about that last year in NBA Playoffs and talked about this year as well, and that is exactly what I did to very, very good success. My advanced meterics crushed your fix is in picks and I did so in the NFL as well. So I wouldn't get so cocky dude. Wasn't a fix is in on 2016 Cavs, sorry, it was regression, I did miss the regression though, I will give you that. Sometimes I do miss things as sports betting is not the only thing I do in life, I have many other things to do and will on rare occasions miss things. You still seem to struggle understanding nothing will be 100%. I called the Heat to win title before playoffs in 2103, Spurs 2014, Warriors 2015, Warriors 2016, Warriors 2017, Warriors 2018 7-1 at winning the title if Warriors win this year but because I did not go 100% somehow you see that as a flaw in my meterics, only you Achilles. Bob whats his name using the script is in, one of your boys lost all those games but 1, and will be 1-6 with his script is in, bet against the masses theory, yes the 2016 Cavs he finally got a win, so sounds like to you that means the script is in works very well coz he called 1 big upset that should not of happened and took loads of luck to do it, your as silly as they come Achillies. You like to bring up my few losses while ignoring all my wins as though that somehow proves anything, all it really proves Achillies is about you. 14 of my past 20 favorites will have won the title if Warriors win this year and with 18 making the finals, I can tell you Achilles I know for a fact no scripts is in guy can touch that run, not even close. In fact I will even say no script is in guy as ever done better or is even close to that run on this site. Pretty damn impressive by any measure whether you want to acknowledge that or not, but all you want to talk about is one of my very few losses, as though that carriers any weight |
|
DoubleUp4Life |
Quote Originally Posted by pdouble: Dude the debate is over , after phixer opened my eyes I make bank every year off every sport, what is the substance you post ? Contrarian arguments and no picks ? The only thing I feel I need to prove on this site is that I make money ... I’ve proven that , so whether I say games are fixed , or my dog makes my picks , or if Jesus himself whispers on my ear .. it shouldn’t matter In Debate is far from over. What he opened your eyes to is nothing more then regression, it is math. Many of the games the fix is in crowd plays I make the exact same plays using nothing more then math. So is it the script or is it math ? I say it is math but for guys who do not understand the math behind it well, of course you will think it is scripted. If you ever followed Marc Lawerence's data base he uses alot of regression, trends that show regression, hot teams that history shows you want to bet against those hot teams. But the ave person could never bring himself to do that. The ave person when they first start trying to pick games basically do not have a clue how to do it. What they do is follow the sport by watching games on TV and following the news on teams but they soon find out that does not work. What they do is back teams in trends, who was hot yesterday will be hot today, it does not work that way. All phixer opened your eyes to is going against the grain of thinking which a person who does not know any better would never, ever consider because he followed the sport and saw the team do so well, how could he possibility go against them. So then many will start to feel it may be scripted since how can so-so team play so well but then play so bad. Because they do not understand the math behind sportsbetting they put it off as only 1 explanation. |
