Griswold1

Caveat:

I've lost four MLB plays in a row despite being very selective so there is that.  Also, line has move toward Athletics since the open and I respect line movement in low profile games because it's usually coming from sharp action.  Still, I think this line is way out of whack so I'm swinging hard at it (and trying to recover from a truly awful NFL pick last night)

YTD 4-5 -1.21 units

all plays 1*

1* Reds +113

The Athletics are the  only team in MLB with a significantly worse record at home than on the road (probably because their home field situation is a joke).  Cincinnati starter Brady Singer is excellent and is in great form: 4-0 with 1.80 ERA his last five starts.  Great stat: Reds are 21-9 with a day of rest while on road covering the last three seasons.  Athletics on a 4-8 run while Reds have won 4 of last 5.  Reds are still in it: only 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot.  I think this game is great value.

NFL YTD 1-0 +1.0 units

Thursday:

1* Commanders +3 1/2 (-115)

While Green Bay was dominant defensively against a Detroit team that looked much worse than last year's juggernaut, the Packers offense wasn't impressive.  GB had trouble running the ball and the passing attack in the second half wasn't much.  Great value here on a Commanders team that destroyed an admittedly poor NYG on both offense and defense.  GB staying home in a short week is an obvious advantage but Washington may have been the most impressive week 1 winner. MAKE SURE TO GET THE HOOK.

Opinions only:

(Sunday)

Colts +1 (also very impressive in week 1; Bo Nix wasn't sharp for Denver)

Bears +4 1/2 (Chicago looked great for three quarters and Detroit looked lousy for three quarters)

CFB YTD 2-0 +2.0 units

all plays 1* so far

I'm 2-0 thanks to playing USC twice against a pair of overmatched teams.  They have another likely rout this week at Purdue but Lincoln Riley's lousy ATS record as a road fave prevents me from making it a full play.  Instead, an excellent dog from the SEC:

1* Vanderbilt +4 1/2

Vandy had a dominant run game last week in pounding a decent Virginia Tech defense.  Vandy also has the QB edge here with veteran Diego Pavia.  These two teams already have a common opponent in V-Tech and both won but SC was not dominant statistically while Vandy was.  Vanderbilt has most starters back from a team that over-achieved last year.  SC is a tough read after beating a FCS team last week but Vanderbilt is undervalued getting points.

Opinions only:
USC -21 (massive talent edge over Purdue)

Southern Miss +2 (at home and I think better than App State)

NFL YTD 0-0

(2024 16-10 +6.5 units)

I had a strong 2024 season and look to do even better this year.  Week 1 is one of the hardest of the year so I'm going with only one play:

1* Jets +3

This whole Steelers thing seems desperate and Aaron Rodgers may struggle.  The Steelers O-line is weak and the Jets have a good defense.  I swear Rodgers is getting weirder by the year and now seems to have fake wife.  Anyway, Terry Glenn has brought life to the Jets and Justin Fields has shown legit progress at QB

Opinions only:
Friday:
Rams +3 (always reliable angle is to go against Super Bowl loser in week one)

Monday:
Bears +1 1/2 (Vikings won lots of close games last year and were exposed in playoffs)

CFB YTD 1-0  +1.0 unit

I had an easy win last week laying 35 on a USC team that won by 60.  They face another overmatched opponent this week and I'm going to keep riding them:

1* USC -29

Jordan Maiava looked great as Trojans hung 73 on Missouri State last week.  This week's opponent looks similarly overmatched.   Georgia Southern got pasted by 28 points at Fresno State last week and now has to make a return trip to the west coast.  USC will control line of scrimmage as Georgia Southern gave up 351 on the ground last week to Fresno while USC gave up only 65 rush yards.  Trojans early schedule is extremely soft and they roll again

Opinions only:

Virginia +3

South Florida +17 1/2

CFB YTD 0-0

1* USC -35

I don't like playing big favorites in anything but this is a special spot.  USC, which has underachieved under Lincoln Riley, needs a strong start and has four very soft games to open the season but none softer than Week 1.  Missouri State is in first season in regular Division 1.  They scored a lot of points last year in FCS but their defense gave up a ton.  And that was against teams with offenses a lot less powerful than USC.  Trojans have nine starters back on offense including a full off-season for QB Jordan Maiva.  Several WR transfers too.  The backup QBs are promising and that's critical when you're laying a lot of points.  USC has retooled its defense and ex-NFL coach Rob Ryan is now involved.  Trojans need to make a dominating statement in week one and get a terrible opponent to do it against.  

Opinions only:

Wake Forest -17 1/2 (Dickert will do an excellent job coaching there)

Baylor +2 1/2 (can beat Auburn SU at home; dark horse contender to win Big 12)

YTD 4-4 +0.15 units

all plays 1* so far

I'm on an 0-3 streak and need a win so let's grab an acceptable price on what seems to be a mismatch.

1* Cubs -136

Chicago might catch the banged-up Brewers and win the NL Central (baseball's toughest decision).  In fact, I think the Cubs might be the best team in MLB right now with the best combination of hitting, bullpen and starting pitching.   The starters are the weakest of those three components but they go with Matt Boyd tonight and he's having a phenomenal season with a 2.61 ERA and 61% quality starts.  AND!  He gets to face one of the worst starters in MLB right now: Verlander with his humiliating 1-10 record.  It's not all his fault as he gets little run support from the Giants who have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Giants were on a 2-11 run before beating Milwaukee two straight but as mentioned above, the Brewers are hammered by injuries right now.  I don't like betting favorites but I think this line should be -220.

YTD 4-3 +1.24 units

all plays 1* and all dogs so far

1* Padres -109

San Diego can sweep the Dodgers to make up for being swept in LA last weekend.  Padres have Pivetta today (he didn't pitch in the series at Dodger Stadium) and he's on a tear with a 13-4 record including 8-1 at home.  SD has the bullpen advantage and was able to rest its closer last night.  Padres are 43-21 at home while LAD is 32-33 on the road and last I checked, tis game was in San Diego.  Padres have been the better team the past month.

YTD 4-2 +2.24 units

all plays 1* and all dogs so far

I remain very selective and focus on dogs that should be favored and I have one tonight:

1* Reds +114

Cincinnati has held its own this season despite playing in MLB's toughest division.  The D-backs?  They've burned money with a -19.5 ROI this year. Arizona is only 32-31 at home, dumped players at the deadline and has no shot at the post-season.  Reds remain very much alive for a wildcard.  Cincy is 7-4 its last 11 versus strong competition (Brewers and Phillies among the opponents) while D-backs were playing crappy against stink bombs like Colorado (six games with them) and Texas.   Reds pitcher Littell has 60% quality starts but I admit Arizona's Nelson's isn't bad.  But the D-backs bullpen?  It stinks with a season long 4.83 ERA and no longer with Shelby Miller.  Wrong team favored.

@sandique

 Actually Milwaukee's series with the Cubs is FIVE games. Doubleheader tomorrow and then three more.   Brewers fried bullpen last two miraculous wins and face Abbott today.  If ever Milw loses, it's today.

BUT!  I would never ever buck a streak like this.  Just skip the game.  The time to fade the Brewers is when they inevitably cool off as every team in history (other than maybe the 27 Yankees) has

YTD 3-2 +1.15 units

all plays 1* and all are dogs

I won last night in a high scoring game with the Mariners over a Mets team that keeps losing while being favored.  Going against another money-burning operation tonight:

1* Rays +109

I know why Verlander won't retire: he doesn't want to give up the money.  But he is awful right now and borderline embarrassing himself.  He's a putrid 1-9 on the season and his ERA is over 5.00 in his last seven starts.  It's indicative of how flawed SF's approach is: give big money to old guys.  Tampa's Houser is just outstanding right now.  In his last 15 games, he's 6-2 with a 2.10 ERA.  Neither team is going anywhere and the Rays aren't easy to back but SF is a dumpster fire.  Giants have been favored in nine of the last ten (and are again tonight) even though they've lost six in a row.  SF management needs to send Verlander to the bullpen or, better yet, just cut him.  But if Giants management knew what it was doing its wouldn't have signed Willy Adames or given up the store for Devers.

YTD 2-2 +0.08 units

all plays 1* and all dogs so far

1* Mariners +107

Mets are on an atrocious 2-13 run and were favored in 10 of those 15 games and inexplicably are again tonight.  Mariners' Castillo has been very good this with a 3.19 ERA and 58% quality starts.  Manea has been only so-so since returning for Mets.

Opinions only:

Cardinals +122 (Yankees are as cold as the Mets)

Padres +153 (I think they win the division so I have to think they can beat the Dodgers tonight)

NOTE: Don't bet against the Brewers yet because it's stupid to buck a streak like this, but when they cool off, it could be a crash.  Every team slumps, the Brewers are way overdue for one. They have lots of key injuries and a five game series at the Cubs coming

YTD 2-1 +1.13 units

all plays 1* and all are dogs

1* Cubs -105

Showdown of the teams tied for best record in NL and showdown between this year's possible Cy Young winner and a future Cy Young winner.  I like the Cubs because Matt Boyd is right now the best pitcher in MLB.  Over the last two months he's 7-1 with a 1.14 ERA and over the past month an even better 4-0 with an 0.67 ERA.  11-3 on the year with a remarkable 2.20 ERA.  Milwaukee rookie Misiorowski has also been outstanding but he only goes five innings at most because he is on a limited season pitch count.  Both teams used their key relievers yesterday.  Milwaukee has cooled off a bit after winning 11 in a row and isn't scoring much.  Milw has zero power with only 98 HRs all year.  Cubs have scored 26 their last five games.  Cubs have five hitters with OPS over .800; Milw has none (although Brewers Chourio is on 20 game hitting streak)

Opinions only:

Royals +135 (Braves should never be favored)

Mets +111 (Mets are hot and Dodgers are not)

CORRECTION!!!!

I MEANT BLUE JAYS!!!!!

DON'T NOW HOW TO EDIT THIS LATE

YTD 1-1 +0.13 units

both plays were 1* and both were dogs

I'm stepping out with a big MLB bet only sparingly and this is one of them:

1* Guardians +100

Detroit is TERRIBLE right now.  They've lost 10 of 11.  Toronto is one of the two hottest teams in MLB (Milwaukee being the other) and is getting no respect on betting lines.  Jays are on a 6-1 run and admittedly this is a tough spot as they play with zero rest and have to travel after hosting the Yankees.  But pitcher Berrios has 57% quality starts and Tigers' Montero is only an occasional starter who doesn't go many innings.  Tigers have scored two or fewer runs in five of last six games (ugh!).  Jays have scored 41 in their last six.  Do the math.  Value is on the dog.

No way the Dodgers lose six straight.

Oops.

GL on your play but baseball is a game of streaks and good teams go on losing streaks and bad teams go on winning streaks over the course of a long year

I believe pitching/defense are 80-90% but this stat has me rethinking my theory.

The team that has given up the fewest runs in the National League this year is..........PITTSBURGH.

Ok, they're actually tied with the Mets and three other teams are within three runs, but still.  How do you give up the fewest runs in the league and still manage to be 18 under .500?  The obvious answer is the Pirates are terrible offensively.  They've scored only 319.  Believe it or not, that isn't the worst in baseball as the White Sox have scored only 318.

And the incredibly rotten Rockies only have 328 despite getting to play half their games in Coors Field.

YTD 1-0 +1.13 units

I hit my first play of the year Wednesday on the hot Blue Jays and I've got one today on another hot but undervalued team with a spectacular pitching situation:

1* Marlins +104

Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff is making his first appearance since 2023!  His seven AAA rehab starts were so-so.  Miami, on the other hand, has the most undervalued pitcher in MLB right now.  Edward Cabrera, after a slow start, is 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA over the last two months.  Yet, he's always an underdog in his starts, like today.  Marlins are on a 10-2 run and haven't been favored in ANY OF THEIR LAST 15 GAMES, even though they're winning almost all of them.  MLB is a game of streaks and you get great opportunities on bad, but hot, teams.  That's Miami right now.  Add in a torrid pitcher facing a guy off a 20-month layoff and get under go odds......I'm in.

Opinion only:

Twins -109 (another hot pitcher)

MLB YTD 0-0

I'm coming off a stunning NBA season here, but so what, this is baseball.  I only play the second half, prefer dogs who I think should be favored and am selective in plays.  My guiding rules: play the hot team, fade the cold team, focus on good starters who go deep into the game, ignore overall records and focus on how teams do home vs away.  Anyway, first play of the year:

1* Blue Jays +113

Berrios has given up one or zero ER in four of his last five starts.  Toronto has won five of six and were dogs in all of them, including tonight.  Jays are scoring a lot of runs.  Yankees' Warren coming off several strong starts but all were against really bad teams.  Yankees have been favored in their last 18 games!!  But they're on a 6-10 run and burning money like an arson fire.  Value on home dog.