Sports betting’s annual rite of spring is once again upon us, as March Madness blows in with a 16-game storm Thursday to kick off the festivities. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for several of those NCAA Tournament matchups, with insights from Matt Lindeman, manager of trading for Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks in Las Vegas, and Derek Wilkinson, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Vegas.
No. 13 Northeastern vs No. 4 Kansas – Open: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5
Kansas is used to being a better seed, normally a 1 or a 2, but it failed to win the Big 12 regular-season or tournament titles this year, slipping a couple notches in the process. The Jayhawks (25-9 SU, 16-18 ATS) at least reached the conference final, but had little answer for Iowa State in a 78-66 loss as 1.5-point underdogs Saturday.
Northeastern enters this 4 p.m. ET Midwest Region battle having won seven in a row and 12 of its last 13 (9-3-1 ATS). The Huskies (23-10 SU, 18-12-3 ATS) beat Hofstra 82-74 as 2.5-point favorites in the Colonial Athletic Association final on March 12 to land an automatic NCAA berth.
“This is one where the book needs the favorite,” Wilkinson said. “We’ve taken some sharp bets on Northeastern plus the points, as well as on the moneyline. It’s going to be a significant five-figure decision by game time.”
No. 12 New Mexico State vs No. 5 Auburn – Open: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5, Move: -5; Move: -5.5
Auburn enters the Big Dance on a hot streak, winning eight in a row, including a four-wins-in-four-days tear through the Southeastern Conference tourney. The Tigers (26-9 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) capped that run with an 84-64 takedown of Tennessee as 4.5-point pups in Sunday’s SEC final.
New Mexico State is on an impressive 19-0 SU roll (9-9 ATS) that included a fairly easy run to the Western Athletic Conference tourney crown. The Aggies (30-4 SU, 17-15 ATS) drubbed Grand Canyon University 89-57 laying 4 points in Saturday’s final.
“Sharps jumped on NMSU at +7.5 and +7 when the numbers came out Sunday night, and there was a secondary move on the Aggies on Tuesday,” Lindeman said of a 1:30 p.m. ET start in the Midwest Region. “We saw some buyback at Auburn -5, but it definitely looks like the wiseguys are in agreement on the ‘dog. Public money could balance it out closer to tip, as Auburn's SEC tournament title win is fresh on everyone's mind.”
No. 14 Yale vs No. 3 LSU – Open: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -8; Move: -7.5; Move: -7.5
Yale is a trendy underdog pick among many bettors in this 12:40 p.m. ET matchup, one of the tournament’s first games of the day. The Bulldogs (22-7 SU, 16-12 ATS) beat Harvard 97-85 as 4-point favorites in Sunday’s Ivy League final to punch their NCAA ticket.
Louisiana State was the Southeastern Conference regular-season champion, but didn’t live up to that billing in the conference tourney. The Tigers (26-6 SU, 19-12-1 ATS) lost to Florida 76-73 as 3.5-point faves in Friday’s quarterfinals.
Caesars books, including the flagship Caesars Palace and The Linq on the Vegas Strip, were among the first to post opening NCAA Tournament lines Sunday afternoon. This contest initially opened LSU -9, but adjusted to -7.5 within 30 minutes. Then came at least a little Tigers money.
“We took a sharp bet on LSU -7.5, but it looks like the market didn't agree, as the number has crept down to 7,” Lindeman said of this East Region matchup. “I'd imagine action will remain pretty split on this one, as some will be enticed by the short number for a 3 seed, and others will want to back the Ivy League underdog.”
No. 10 Florida vs No. 7 Nevada – Open: -2.5; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5
Nevada lost just four games all season, but one of those was in the Mountain West Conference semifinals, as the No. 1 seed. The Wolf Pack (29-4 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) fell to San Diego State 65-56 laying 10.5 points Friday.
Florida gained a berth to the NCAA Tourney after reaching the SEC semifinals last week. The Gators (19-15 SU, 16-18 ATS) rolled over Arkansas and upset top seed LSU, before losing to eventual SEC champ Auburn 65-62 as 3.5-point ‘dogs Saturday.
“There was a small move down on this game Tuesday (to 1.5), but the number has worked its way back up to the opening line of 2.5,” Lindeman said of a 6:50 p.m. ET tip in the West Region. “We haven't taken anything significant on either side, but this is one game where I could see a late public pile-on, as bettors look to lay a short number with a talented Nevada team.”
No. 11 Belmont vs No. 6 Maryland – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5
Belmont already has a win under its belt this week, making it through one of the First Four play-in games. The Bruins lost to Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference final, but their body of work was enough to garner an NCAA at-large bid. Belmont then beat Temple 81-70 Tuesday as 2.5-point chalk to gain a spot in this 3:10 p.m. ET matchup.
Maryland had an up-and-down last two months, going 6-7 SU and ATS, but still landed the sixth seed in the East Region. The Terrapins (22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) stumbled to Nebraska in their Big Ten tourney opener, losing 69-61 as 6.5-point favorites last Thursday.
“This is likely going to be one of our bigger decisions of the day, as Belmont will be a very trendy ‘dog pick,” Lindeman said. “We opened Maryland -3.5 and have already seen heavy action on the Bruins, most of which is coming on the moneyline. I'm curious to see what the buy price is on the favorite; I wouldn't be surprised if the game closes 2.”
No. 12 Murray State vs No. 5 Marquette – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5
Murray State has the eyeball-drawing, jaw-dropping star guard Ja Morant, who has helped his squad win 11 in a row to land in the Big Dance. The Racers (27-4 SU, 19-10 ATS) beat Belmont 77-65 catching 2 points in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament title game March 9.
Marquette finished second in the Big East regular-season standings, but couldn’t convert that into a spot in the conference tournament final. The Golden Eagles (24-9 SU, 19-14 ATS) fell a bucket short to Seton Hall in Friday’s semis, losing 81-79 as 4.5-point favorites.
“It's been all one-sided action here, as sharps and public bettors are lining up on the ‘dog,” Lindeman of this 4:30 p.m. ET West Region contest. “Murray State was always going to be a trendy pick with Morant leading the way, but now Marquette’s Markus Howard has a wrist injury that could limit him. Barring a few big bets on the Warriors late, we'll need Marquette.”
No. 13 Vermont vs No. 4 Florida State – Open: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -10; Move: -9
Florida State surged late in the regular season, going 12-1 SU in its last 13 games (8-5 ATS), then claimed a pair of Atlantic Coast Conference tourney wins, including a semifinal upset of No. 1 seed Virginia. The Seminoles (27-7 SU, 16-17-1 ATS) lost to Duke in Saturday’s ACC final, 73-63 getting 7 points.
Vermont has won six in a row and 12 of its last 13 (8-5 ATS) en route to the automatic bid from the America East Conference. In Saturday’s conference final, the Catamounts (27-6 SU, 20-10-2 ATS) dispatched Maryland-Baltimore County – a team that sprung the historic 16 vs. 1 upset of Virginia in last year’s NCAA Tournament – 66-49 giving 10.5 points.
“We’ve gotten a lot of action on Vermont from sharps,” Wilkinson said of this 2 p.m. ET West Region matchup. “Mostly pointspread bets, but we also have a decent liability on Vermont moneyline, which dropped from +525 to +400.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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