On Friday afternoon, Mikal McCulley and his buddies from Birmingham, Alabama, headed into the Venetian hoping to get a bet down on an offering that wasn’t even available at many Las Vegas sportsbooks:
Maryland-Baltimore County, moneyline, against Virginia. A No. 16 seed over a No. 1 seed.
Such an NCAA Tournament win would be historic, the first of its kind in the men’s field. Fortunately, CG Technology was among a handful of Vegas sportsbook operators allowing moneyline bets on a game that was expected to be anything but close. Virginia, not only the top seed in the South Region but the No. 1 overall seed, went off as a 20.5-point favorite.
But by no means was McCulley taking a flier on the Retrievers, trying to chase a big payout.
“We’re in chatrooms with a bunch of guys who are sports handicappers. We go over plays every night,” McCulley told Covers while relaxing in a Venetian sportsbook booth late Friday night, shortly after the game ended. “When the bracket came out, we liked UMBC. We’ve been anti-Virginia winning the title since the beginning of the season, because of its style of basketball. It leaves no room for error. Virginia was going to have a rough time making it through the tournament.
“So we’d discussed it, we came over here, and they offered the moneyline at +2,000. The value was there because the game was going to be low-scoring.”
McCulley put $100 on UMBC on the moneyline, for a possible payday of $2,000, along with another $100 on the first-half moneyline. He also held a Retrievers pointspread ticket at +22.5 that would cover any losses from the moneyline wagers.
He almost nailed the first-half wager, with the game tied at 21 at halftime. Then it was on to the second half.
“There was very little chance, but the pace of the game, there was an opportunity that it may cash,” McCulley said, noting he got a little more optimistic early in the second half, and said as much to one of his buddies, Dale Burnett. “They came out on a 6-0 run, and I looked over at Dale and said, ‘We have a chance.’”
Said Burnett, “It’s a good feeling when you keep waiting on Virginia to make a run. Hell, they can’t score!”
Still, the nagging suspicion of the other shoe dropping hung around for a while.
“When they got out to a lead, it was never close. And you’re just thinking to yourself, ‘At what point does this go bad?’ And it never went bad. It only got better.”
Indeed, the Retrievers were running away, getting easy dunks and layups on the way to a 74-54 wipeout, more than a 40-point swing off the closing line.
“You’re trying to realize that it was 132-0 coming into the tournament,” McCulley said of No. 1 seeds’ record against No. 16 seeds. “And I’m holding a ticket for the first time it happens. That was the only moneyline bet we had on an underdog.”
The 1-vs.-16 record actually went up to 135-0 over the past two days, before Virginia – the last No. 1 to play – got dealt a loss for the ages. CG Technology books wrote several UMBC moneyline tickets, with the largest one an $800 wager – also at the Venetian – that cashed out for $16,000.
CG Analytics CEO Matthew Holt took the setbacks in stride, looking at the big picture of the incredible entertainment value.
“It’s upsets like this one, and Marshal and Buffalo both beating No. 4 seeds as No. 13 seeds, that make this tournament the most unpredictable and thus the most popular wagered-upon sporting event, year after year,” Holt said.
Added Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG, “Historically, games with very low totals will create opportunities for underdogs to cover and win outright. A 10-point lead can be the equivalent of a 20-point lead with a more conventional and/or high-end total.”
UMBC proved that analysis. Once the Retrievers got ahead by double digits, Virginia never cut the deficit to single digits.
The South Point, a few miles south on Las Vegas Boulevard, was among the other books offering UMBC-Virginia moneyline wagering, opening the Retrievers at +2,500 and closing at +2,000. Sportsbook director Chris Andrews said there was about $1,800 in UMBC bets, cashing out for more than $40,000.
“I’ve been saying a No. 16 is going to win one of these days, but in my wildest dreams, it wouldn’t have been UMBC beating Virginia,” Andrews said. “Unbelievable.”
William Hill US sportsbooks in Vegas and around Nevada had UMBC moneyline at +2,500 and took 100 such wagers, with the largest bet being $100, from six players who won $2,500.
“That’s why they play the game,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US. “You never know.”
While several UMBC moneyline bettors probably rushed to the window to cash out, McCulley isn’t certain he’ll take that tack.
“I’m not sure yet. I might,” he said. “It’d be worth more to me in 30 years, and the story that goes along with it if I don’t cash it, than the $2000. Right now, I’m just gonna hold it. It has to be the best ticket ever, when you hold the first-ever No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
