Heisman Trophy Odds 2026: Mensah Leads Heisman Front Runners After Week 1 Explosion

CJ Carr's status as the No. 1 choice in the Heisman Trophy odds lasted just one game, with Darian Mensah (and wide receiver Malachi Toney) making all sorts of noise in Miami's Week 1 win over Stanford.

Mensah is already up to 16% and has Miami's offense rolling, with Toney (12 receptions, 234 yards, three touchdowns in Week 1) headlining Rob Paul's Heisman Hedge Fund.  

Meanwhile, Arch Manning and Carr round out the Top 3 behind Mensah in the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.

Heisman Trophy odds

Player Name	Probability
Darian Mensah	16%
Arch Manning	9%
CJ Carr	9%
Jeremiah Smith	8%
Malachi Toney	7%
Dante Moore	7%
Julian Sayin	7%
Trinidad Chambliss	7%
Sam Leavitt	6%
Jayden Maiava	5%
Josh Hoover	4%
John Mateer	3%
Keelon Russell	3%

Odds as of 9-9. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.

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Heisman Trophy favorites

Darian Mensah (16%)

It only took one game for us to have a new favorite atop the Heisman board, with Darian Mensah skyrocketing into the first spot after throwing for 401 yards and five touchdowns in Miami's Week 1 win over Stanford. 

His probability has doubled from 8% to 16%, and you can expect him to hold this spot down for at least another week as Miami takes on Florida A&M as 53.5-point favorites.

Arch Manning (9%)

Arch Manning is starting to turn into the quarterback we thought he'd become. He threw for 305 yards and four touchdowns (also threw an interception) in Texas' blowout win over Texas State.

He'll now get a shot to shine in the spotlight, with Texas hosting No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday night. A strong performance in a win could see the gap between Manning and Mensah close after Week 2.

CJ Carr (9%)

CJ Carr's season got off to a solid, if not spectacular, start in Notre Dame's win over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field: 239 yards and two touchdowns on 19-for-29 passing.

Still, as long as Notre Dame is at or near the top of the National Championship odds, Carr will remain in the conversation.

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Heisman Trophy prediction

Demond Williams Jr. to win

Kalshi probability: 2%

Demond Williams Jr. has a lot more going for him than it seems at first glance.

He plays quarterback in the current standard-bearer conference in college football, the Big Ten. He threw for over 3,000 yards in 2025 with over 600 rushing yards added in, accounting for 31 total touchdowns. 

Washington is ranked No. 17 to start the season and hosts rival Washington State on NBC in their opener, giving Williams Jr. a platform to throw himself into the Heisman conversation immediately.

The Huskies' schedule is back-loaded with Indiana and Oregon to close out the year. But you're getting a great buy-low opportunity here that could offer a solid cash-out option by November, if nothing else.

Pick made on 8-26.

Heisman Trophy winners by position

Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.

Heisman Trophy trends

Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.

• Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
  
  
• The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you're handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
  
  
• Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.

Heisman Trophy history

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