Well, this isn't the World Cup final anyone predicted, but it should be an entertaining affair as France looks to dispatch a Croatian side that has bucked the odds to reach its first-ever World Cup title match Sunday at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.
France entered the tournament at +700 to win the title at most betting sites, and is a whopping -106 against Croatia after slipping past Belgium 1-0 in the semifinals. Croatia entered as a +3,500 long shot, but is one win away from making good after rallying to beat England 2-1 in the other semi.
QUICK-HITTER
The World Cup final generally starts as a cautious affair as players deal with the nerves of being on the largest stage of their lives. There has been just two goals scored in the opening 20 minutes of a World Cup final since 1978, and both of those came in the 2006 title game between Italy and France. That also means meaningful set pieces should be at a premium in the early going.
It isn't the sexiest quick-hitter on the board, but the chances are great that a throw-in will be the first set piece of the game.
PREDICTION: First set piece (0:00-4:59): throw-in (-125)
FIRST-HALF BET
This World Cup featured more than its share of goal-heavy matchups and thrilling moments, but France and Croatia got this far largely on the strength of their respective defenses. And while both teams have struggled at times at the back end, France has posted back-to-back clean sheets while Croatia held England off the board for the final 115-plus minutes of their semifinal.
Those two early tallies in the 2006 final represent the only first-half goals scored in a World Cup final in the 21st Century. We believe that trend will continue in what could be a first half light on quality scoring chances.
PREDICTION: 0-0 first-half score (+125)
TEAM/PLAYER BET
Give this much to the Croatians: they aren't afraid to make a hard tackle. Of the four teams to have played six games at this World Cup, Croatia has easily committed the most fouls of the quartet (101). By comparison, the French have been whistled just 79 times. Predictably, the Croatians have also accrued more yellow cards, with 14 compared to France's 10.
It would be folly for the Croatians to stray from what has worked, which means plenty of hard challenges on France's skill players. And that will almost certainly give them the edge in yellow cards when all is said and done.
PREDICTION: Croatia with the most bookings
FULL-GAME SIDE
Didier Deschamps' side hasn't looked like a World Cup champion over the course of the tournament, but oddsmakers believe in Les Bleus. And with France having played far less football than its counterpart heading into the final, those fresh legs could make a major difference. Croatia has gone 120 minutes in every elimination game, and could struggle to keep pace in the second half.
Combine the freshness edge with the scoring exploits of Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe, both of whom should give the Croatian fits, and you have the recipe for a narrow French victory.
PREDICTION: Draw/France halftime/fulltime victory (+333)
FULL-GAME TOTAL
This game will likely bear little resemblance to the third-place game between Belgium and England, which takes place in St. Petersburg Saturday. The consolation match has produced an average of 4.1 goals over the previous 10 World Cups. The same absolutely cannot be said for the final, which has seen just 10 total goals scored in the previous seven championship matches.
If either team goes ahead, it will be exceedingly difficult for its opponent to counter. And while the Croatians have come from behind in all three of their elimination matches, this French defense is a daunting foe. We see this one being decided by a goal. Literally.
PREDICTION: Under 1.5 goals (+137)
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