The Golden State Warriors shoot for their third championship in a row as they head to Toronto to play the Raptors in Game 1 of the 2019 NBA Finals.
The Warriors will need to get through at least the first few games of the series without the Finals MVP of the last two years in Kevin Durant. The Raptors are making their first finals appearance, have an entire nation rooting for them and are led by 2014 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard.
We break down the series odds and give you in-depth trends and notes so you can make the best bets for this best-of-seven battle.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS TORONTO RAPTORS
Series Winner Odds: Golden State -304/Toronto +230 @ PointsBet
Regular Season Head to Head: Toronto 2-0
Game 1: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON - Thursday, May 30, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 2: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON - Sunday, June 2, 8:00 p.m. ET
Game 3: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA - Wednesday, June 5, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 4: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA - Friday, June 7, 9:00 p.m. ET
*Game 5: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON - Mon, June 10, 9:00 p.m. ET
*Game 6: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA - Thur, June 13, 9:00 p.m. ET
*Game 7: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON Sun, June 16, 8:00 p.m. ET
* If Necessary
BACKGROUND
The Raptors won both games in the head-to-head during the regular season but don't expect that to count for much this series, the Warriors have been notoriously laid back during the regular season for the past few years before turning their intensity up for the playoffs. On top of that, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green missed the first game while Leonard sat out the second.
The Warriors are coming off a four game sweep of the Blazers in the Western Conference Finals, after being taken to six games by the Clippers and Rockets. They will be without Kevin Durant for at least the first game of the series and possibly longer than that. KD has been the Finals MVP for the last two years and was leading the Warriors in scoring with 34.2 ppg in the playoffs before a calf injury against the Rockets. However, in his absence Golden State has gone 6-0 while Curry and Green have dominated with the ball in their hands more often.
Many counted out the Raptors when they fell behind two games to nothing against the Bucks after getting clobbered by 22 points in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Raps came back to win four in a row and book their first trip to the finals. They also had a close call in the second round, winning a tight series against the 76ers with a last-second Leonard shot that will go down in history. Toronto finished one game ahead of Golden State in the regular season standings which will give them home-court advantage in this series.
ROAD WARRIORS
That home-court advantage could prove crucial for a Raptors squad that is 40-11 at Scotiabank Arena this season, including 8-2 during the playoffs. Toronto has outstanding scoring margin of plus-12.1 at home in the postseason.
However the Warriors have been excellent on the road with a league-best 33-16 record, including 6-2 in the playoffs. Their road playoff scoring margin of plus-7.9 is almost 11 points better than the Raptors scoring margin away from Toronto (minus-3).
DEFENSE VS OFFENSE
This could be a classic battle of two teams with different styles. Golden State has improved on their already potent offense from the regular season, scoring 116.4 points per 100 possessions while shooting 48.7 percent from the field during the playoffs. The Raptors have stepped up on the defensive end of the floor, holding postseason opponents to 102.4 points per 100 possessions.
However the Warriors have shown flaws on the defensive end of the court, allowing 110.2 points per 100 possessions. The Raptors are 10-0 when they have scored at least 104 points per 100 possessions during this playoff run.
FALLING BEHIND EARLY
Both teams had a bad habit of falling behind early during their conference finals matchups. Although Golden State swept Portland they trailed at halftime in each of the last three games, while Toronto trailed Milwaukee after 24 minutes in three of their last five games.
Golden State looks to have the edge in the early going, leading the league in 1Q scoring margin with plus-3.1. Toronto is plus-1.6 in the first 12 minutes, including a terrible minus-7.3 in the first quarter of their last three games. Taking the Warriors on the 1Q spread could be a good option.
Falling behind early will be far more costly for Toronto in this series given how well Golden State has closed out games.
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TIGHTENING UP IN THE FOURTH
Both the Raptors and Warriors step up their defensive intensity in the fourth quarter while slowing down on offense. The Warriors allow just 26.1 ppg in the fourth quarter and that number has been an incredible 19.3 pgg over their last three games. While the Raptors give up 26.3 ppg in the fourth, improving to 21 ppg over their previous three contests.
On offense, Golden State puts up 26.5 ppg in the final quarter, while Toronto averages 26 ppg. Live bettors should keep those trends in mind when betting on the total late in game.
THE KING IN THE NORTH
Kawhi Leonard has carried the Raptors throughout the playoffs, averaging 31.2 ppg while shooting 51/39/88. The Raptors need Leonard on the floor if they want their offense to click. They average 111.7 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi on the court and just 85.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. Expect him to log big minutes and take plenty of shots.
In his lone game against the Warriors during the regular season, Leonard scored 37 points on 14 of 24 shooting from the floor. The O/U for Leonard's ppg in the series is set at 30.5 at PointsBet.
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