The LSU Tigers are all but guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff after rolling through the regular season with an unblemished 12-0 SU record. But that doesn’t mean Louisiana State is going to walk through its matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship on Saturday.
Oddsmakers have the Tigers set as 7-point favorites for this “neutral-site” game, which just so happens to take place in the Bulldogs backyard at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Georgia, which sits No. 4 in the CFP rankings, would lockdown a playoff spot with a victory in the conference title game.
We look at the best bets for the SEC Championship between LSU and UGA, from the spread and total to quick-paying plays and top prop picks.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS VS. LSU TIGERS (-7, 55.5)
QUICK HITTER
Just like the opening round of a prize fight, the Tigers and Bulldogs will likely have some feeling out to do in the first quarter. Both teams will look to control the ground game in this matchup, and that battle will start with the opening whistle.
These SEC schools rank among the best in first-quarter defense and Georgia hasn’t allowed a single point in the opening 15 minutes since its upset loss to South Carolina back in Week 7. Louisiana State has allowed just a field goal in the first quarter over its last three outings and only three points on average in the first 15 minutes for the season.
The Tigers have the more formidable offense but outside of 21 points in the opening frame versus Texas A&M last week, LSU has scored a collective 48 first-quarter points over the seven contests prior to the season finale. That’s an average of just 6.8 points per opening quarter – a slow start for an offense that averaged more than 43 points per game in that seven-game span.
PREDICTION: First Quarter Under 12.5
FIRST HALF BET
The Bulldogs may have no choice but to run the football in the first half, given their situation at receiver heading into the SEC Championship.
Georgia was already missing top receiver Lawrence Cager, who has been out since late November with an ankle injury, and will not have the services of its second-best pass catcher for the first 30 minutes Saturday. Receiver George Pickens was suspended for the first half of the SEC title game after a dust-up with Georgia Tech led to an ejection last weekend.
That leaves UGA without a deep threat on offense in the first half and shortens the playbook dramatically against an LSU defense ranked 28th in yards allowed per play (5.0). The Tigers give up only 8.8 points per first half and have tightened the bolts on that stat, slimming it to only 4.3 points over their past three first-half scenarios.
PREDICTION: Georgia Under first-half team total 10.5
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Joe Burrow gets the spotlight and Heisman love in Baton Rouge but RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been just as vital to the Tigers down the home stretch of the schedule.
Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 686 total yards in LSU’s last five games, adding another 264 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns in that span. He’s a dynamic back that can run up the middle with power and break away for home-run plays with blinding speed.
In his last meeting with UGA, Edwards-Helaire amassed 145 yards on 19 carries in a 36-16 win for LSU last October. Now, the junior RB has added that pass-catching wrinkle to his arsenal, reeling in 43 balls (most by an RB in the SEC) for 338 yards on the season compared to only eight receptions in 2018.
The Bulldogs have a much stouter run defense this time around, but with Georgia having to pick its poison between Burrow’s arm and CEH’s legs we like Edwards-Helaire to get his in the SEC Championship.
PREDICTION: Edwards-Helaire Over 92.5 rushing yards
OVER/UNDER BET
Georgia knows it’s bringing a knife to a gun fight when it comes to offense in the SEC Championship. The Bulldogs game plan, however, will be not letting the Tigers unholster that gun which means playing a little defense on offense.
The Bulldogs will be methodical with their approach, chewing up the clock when in possession of the football. The Georgia rushing attack picks up 4.75 yards per run versus SEC opponents, which has helped UGA post an average TOP of 33:25.63 in conference games – most in the SEC.
In their two toughest games of the season, versus Auburn and Florida, the Bulldogs ran the ball 36 and 37 times for a collective 260 yards on the ground. The Louisiana State defense has been given plenty of support on the scoreboard and due to that, most opponents have been forced to play from behind and abandon the run.
The Tigers give up 3.8 yards per carry to foes on the season but that ticks up to 4.3 yards allowed per run versus SEC opposition. Louisiana State has surrendered some big rushing totals towards the end of the calendar, and it appears that Georgia RB D'Andre Swift will be good to go after aggravating a shoulder injury in the finale against Georgia Tech last week. He had 72 yards on 12 carries in last year’s loss to the Tigers.
With a run-focused attack and a strong Georgia defense slowing down that LSU onslaught, expect a classic SEC grinder in Saturday’s title game.
PREDICTION: Under 55.5
POINTSPREAD BET
The long road to the SEC title game is showing on the Bulldogs, who have injury concerns and suspensions on offense to deal with Saturday. The defense will be able to hold it together, but for how long?
Louisiana State hasn’t had to worry too much in the fourth quarter this season, but when the pressure has been put on the Tigers, Burrow has stepped up to the plate with big plays. He was electric in the final minutes versus Texas in Week 2, he was clutch in the final frame versus Auburn, scoring the go-ahead rushing touchdown, and kept the chains moving on two key drives versus Alabama in the fourth quarter, setting up short-yardage rushing TDs for the Bayou Bengals.
We’ve seen this Bulldogs defense bend in the fourth quarter in recent games, giving up a touchdown to Texas A&M to burn bettors in Week 13, allowing 14 points in the fourth in a near collapse to Auburn, and two touchdowns in the last frame versus Florida which left UGA bettors sweating.
This game will be close through the first three quarters, but we do expect the Tigers’ high-octane offense to finally breakthrough in the fourth and get the job done for bettors with a win and a cover of the 7-point spread.
PREDICTION: LSU -7
