2024 MLB Home Run Title Odds: How High Can Ohtani Go?

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5/1/2024: Baseball can be cruel. For as great as Mike Trout has been for his career — and he is a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer — I often wonder just how gaudy his numbers would have been if injuries had not reared their ugly heads in recent seasons. For the first month of 2024, Trout looked healthy and while the batting average was lower than we're accustomed to, the power was impressive. He was the first player to reach double-digit home runs and was atop the betting board to lead the majors in long balls, a feat he has never accomplished. Well, the second player to reach 10 homers is reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson. The second-year infielder graded out with great power potential as a prospect and he hit 28 last season. However, he only hit five over the first two months, blasting the remaining 23 after the calendar flipped to June. The 10 he's hit this year nearly matches his first-half output of 2023. Henderson doesn't have Pete Alonso's or Aaron Judge's track record, so it's understandable why he's trailing them in the betting odds. But I can guarantee that his number will shrink with every additional big fly. He's hit four over his last seven games and 22/1 might be the best value we'll see going forward.
4/23/2024: If you were waiting for the market on Aaron Judge to cool, here we are. Through 23 games, Judge has just three home runs to his name and hasn't gone yard in any of his last seven. However, we've seen this before. Judge had just one homer to his name through 13 games in 2022 and had three total by April 23 of that season as well. He only went on to set a new AL record with 62 home runs before the end of the year. He even salvaged April by swatting three home runs in the final four games of the month before opening May with a two-homer game. As the weather gets warmer, so will Judge, and a breakout could happen at any time, so getting him at 8/1 to lead MLB in dingers could easily be the best value you'll find. In his place is a familiar face: Mike Trout. The batting average hasn't been there, but he's neem crushing the ball and leads the AL with eight. The MLB leader is Marcell Ozuna and sportsbooks aren't fully buying in on him over the course of the entire season. He's been streaky his entire career, but he has a ton of lineup protection in the Atlanta Braves offense and has been torching opposing pitching. Another strong week and 14/1 will be a memory.
4/17/2024: New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso was sluggish to open the season but hit four home runs in four games, including two in one day against the Royals, in more recent contests. Before that power surge, the Polar Bear was trading as long as 12/1. Now, you can't get a better number than +700. Alonso also has a lengthy track record as one of baseball's premier power bats. Michael Busch doesn't have that kind of reputation, though his power stroke was touted as a selling point as he rose through the minor-league ranks. Busch has six home runs already, and five came in consecutive games. While he figures to be a relative long shot, he is available at +20,000 to lead the bigs in long balls. Another couple of big flies, and his odds will shorten. Three batters are tied for the MLB lead with seven homers apiece at the time of this writing: Mike Trout, Marcell Ozuna, and Tyler O'Neill. Alonso and Busch — as well as Mookie Betts and Taylor Ward — are next in line with six each.
4/9/2024: Mike Trout, Marcell Ozuna, Mookie Betts, and Tyler O'Neill have each swatted five home runs in the early going. Betts has played a few extra games thanks to the Los Angeles Dodgers opening the season in Korea while O'Neill has mashed his in the fewest plate appearances (37). The muscular Canadian has shown prowess for dingers, hitting 34 into the seats when he was last healthy in 2021. His lack of consistency has maintained his status as an underdog, but the +8,000 odds at FanDuel and Caesars won't last if he hits a few more. On the flip side, you're not suddenly going to get a discount on Aaron Judge because he's only hit two home runs in his first 11 games. In 2022, Judge hit just one homer in his first 13 games. Well, he only went on to hit an AL-record 62 throughout the season. He will need to slump considerably longer for the odds to shift.
3/27/2024: Aaron Judge returned to the New York Yankees lineup over the weekend and while he went 1-for-6 with a single over two games, he also played in the outfield both times instead of being limited to designated hitter duties. That alone is encouraging and a reason why he's still drawing the shortest odds to lead the majors in homers. Still, his injury issues have likely contributed to his odds being a little longer at FanDuel, though it's still the shortest number of any player at that book.
3/18/2024: Despite a lingering abdominal injury slowing Aaron Judge's ramp-up to game action, he's the betting favorite to lead the majors in home runs. He's expected to be ready for Opening Day, so it's reasonable that his odds haven't gotten longer. The sleeper to monitor is Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz, whose odds have shot up to +5,000 at DraftKings and are generally 100/1 or longer. Cruz is tied for the MLB lead with seven home runs during spring training, and while exhibition results can not be used as a clear throughline, his power has not ever been questioned. He's 6-foot-7 and has 80-grade raw power. He smashed 17 home runs in his brief 87-game run with the Pirates in 2022 and was injured before he got a chance to get going in 2023. With some books already moving in that direction, long odds won't be available for much longer if it carries over into the regular season.
3/4/2024: Some slight shifts have hit the odds board, but they've been mostly negligible. For now, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is viewed as the top dog. Still, Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson, last year's homer king, is available as long as +850. For now, Olson's teammate Austin Riley has the widest range of odds among the top contenders, available as short as +1,900 and as long as +5,000.
2/14/2024: Numbers haven't moved since our last update, but one domino did fall. Jorge Soler was the only free agent listed in the home run leader odds and he has since signed a three-year contract with the San Francisco Giants. While Oracle Park is a pitcher-friendly venue that traditionally plays large, Soler has the kind of power that can't really be contained by any ballpark. He's also played a good chunk of his games throughout his career at power-suppressing parks in Kansas City and Miami. Injuries are a concern, but he could approach 50 bombs if he's healthy like he did when he played all 162 games and mashed 48 in 2019 — 21 of which came in spacious Kauffman Stadium.
2/5/2024: These odds likely won't change all that much between now and the start of the season, so if you're betting these lines it's important to look for discrepancies. A month ago, we found value with Rafael Devers and Adolis Garcia, and those lines are still available. Now, we can add Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley to the list because he's available at +5,000 at bet365 compared to +3,000, at best, elsewhere. Riley has hit at least 33 homers in three consecutive seasons and finished in 10th with 37 in 2023. Another player whose odds aren't as short as expected is Luis Robert, who smacked 38 dingers a year ago and is available at 80/1 at bet365. The Chicago White Sox will probably be terrible, and health is always a concern with Robert, but he showed what he can do when he can stay on the field in 2023. 
1/4/2024: Aaron Judge is certainly capable of leading MLB in home runs in any given year assuming he's healthy. With the Yankees adding Juan Soto to the lineup, he should — in theory — get a little more lineup protection. Judge has led the majors in home runs twice (2017 and 2022). Those two years also represent the only times he's played at least 150 games. And though he was limited to just 106 games in 2023, he still sent 37 bombs into the stands, so it's reasonable to think he'd at least have been in the running opposite Matt Olson's 54. The Atlanta Braves first baseman cruised past his previous career high of 39 while leading the NL in slugging at .604. It will be interesting to see how Shohei Ohtani fares as a pure DH in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers as he recovers from elbow surgery, which will prevent him from pitching. The two biggest disparities between books at this time are Rafael Devers (50/1 at Caesars, 25/1 or shorter everywhere else) and Adolis Garcia (80/1 at BetMGM, 50/1 or shorter elsewhere).