Over the last 10 games, the LA offense has scored two or fewer runs in 50% of their games and their 88 wRC+ this month ranks in the bottom third of the league. There’s a lot to like about Sonny Gray in this spot other than just facing a weak offense. He is coming off a rough outing vs. the Brewers but has also had three scoreless starts over six turns this season. He is also a pitcher with a short leash which isn’t always priced in. He has yet to throw more than 94 pitches this year and THE BAT is projecting just 88 pitches from the veteran right-hander with elite K% and BB% numbers. This play will lose more times than win but at +140, that’s alright even at 48% which this projects as.
Over his last four starts, Detmers has allowed a whopping 22 earned runs over 22+ innings. The lefty is struggling mightily and his Under 17.5 outs at +115 looks like the best way to fade the pitcher. Everything is going wrong for the lefty who has nine walks over those 22+ innings as well as seven home runs allowed. He’s had a decent leash during these struggles but there is a chance today that the Angels keep him shorter with the recent results. The Covers’ prop projection is 15.69 outs while THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches. There are plenty of avenues where the lefty doesn’t see 90 pitches today. The Cards don’t hit lefties hard, but they do have the fourth-lowest K% vs. LHP and walk at an above-average rate which means longer at-bats.