In a rough start to Round 1, NBA playoff underdogs are just 2-9 outright and 5-6 ATS heading into tonight's slate. Prime among these are the Los Angeles Clippers, who shut down the Dallas Mavericks for a 109-97 victory in Game 1 on Sunday — despite not having star Kawhi Leonard in action.
As I make my Game 2 Mavericks vs. Clippers predictions and NBA picks, the Clippers remain 2.5-point home pups tonight, with Leonard still a game-time decision.
Mavericks vs Clippers predictions
My best bet
James Harden Under 19.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The status of Kawhi Leonard slowed the rollout of Los Angeles Clippers odds for Game 2, with those markets finally hitting the board late Monday afternoon.
Leonard did participate in practice on Monday, in limited contact, and the team will reassess closer to tonight’s 10 p.m. ET tipoff. The line movement on the point spread would indicate the market thinks he’ll suit up, with Los Angeles going from +3 to +1.5 overnight.
With Kawhi out for Game 1, veteran guard James Harden stepped up in a big way. He knocked down 8 of 17 shots (6 for 11 on 3-pointers) and finished with 28 points in the victory.
Not only was this Harden’s biggest scoring output since putting up 29 points against Milwaukee on March 4 but it tied his third-most shot attempts of the entire season (the best two — 23 and 18 FGAs — also coming with Leonard sidelined).
Before the Game 1 effort (in which his scoring total was 18.5 O/U), Harden had topped 20 points only three times in the 17 games between those scoring outbursts and averaged 16.6 points on 11.4 field goal attempts per outing.
Kawhi in or Kawahi out, Dallas’ defense will be much more attentive to Harden in Game 2, especially when it comes to getting its heels above the 3-point arc and not letting The Beard heat up from distance. It’s unlikely Harden will see the same volume of shots, regardless of L.A.’s rotation.
Player projections for Harden bounce between 15.8 and 17.5 points for Tuesday’s tilt, with my number coming out to 16.9 points. It should be noted that most of these forecasts do factor in Leonard as active.
Harden’s NBA prop odds have his scoring total at 19.5 points for Game 2 (his tallest total in a long, long time). Some sharper operators have already moved the juice for Under 19.5 from -106 to -135 — another indication the betting markets are leaning toward a Leonard return.
However, other shops have been slower to adjust, and you can still find Harden Under 19.5 points as low as -110 on Tuesday morning. Given my projection of 16.9 points from the Clips’ sharp-shooting guard, the Under 19.5 should be priced as high as -217.
Betting Harden to go Under his scoring total is never comfortable (especially after his Game 1 performance) and this bet could blow up in our faces should Kawhi take a seat, but there’s value for the taking, given forecasts and market movement.
Mavericks vs Clippers same-game parlay (SGP)
James Harden Under 19.5 points
Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 assists
Under 216
Harden is an inconsistent scorer in his golden years and won’t get the same touches or clean looks as he did in Game 1.
Irving has to find a way to get the rest of the Mavericks going in Game 2. He had eight potential assists in Game 1 but finished with only four dimes due to Dallas’ poor shooting.
L.A. did a great job dealing with the Mavs’ high screens and forcing Dallas into bad shots in Game 1. If Leonard returns, it gives the Clips a lockdown defender to throw at Doncic.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Clippers odds
Get the latest Mavericks vs. Clippers Game 2 NBA playoff odds.
Mavericks vs Clippers live odds
Mavericks vs Clippers opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -2.5 | Los Angeles +2.5
- Moneyline: Dallas -125 | Los Angeles +105
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 | Under 219.5
Mavericks vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Following the Game 1 loss in L.A., Dallas opened as a 2.5-point road favorite for Game 2 with the market expecting a bounceback game from Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Mavs. Some books were as high as Mavs -3 on Monday but this spread has shrunk to as low as -2 on Tuesday morning.
- Leonard sat out Game 1 due to knee soreness. Sharp books had opened Los Angeles as a 2-point home favorite but with Kawhi out, that spread jumped the fence and ran to as high as Clips +3.5 before game time. That makes Leonard worth about 5.5 points to L.A.’s spread.
- Tuesday’s game total hit the board as high as 219.5 points and has slimmed to 216.5 at most books as of Tuesday morning. That’s a notable adjustment from the closing total of 223 O/U for Game 1 of this series.
- According to Covers Consensus data, 53% of picks are laying the points with Dallas in a zig-zag spot on Tuesday night. As for the Over/Under, 54% of picks are taking the Over in Game 2.
Mavericks vs Clippers trend
The Mavericks have gone Under the total in 39 of their last 58 games (+18.10 units). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.
Mavericks vs Clippers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-23-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, truTV |
Mavericks vs Clippers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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