The NBA slate on Friday will feature two Game 6s, as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will look to eliminate Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best NBA player prop bets for these matchups.
It's the same soup reheated with the Los Angeles Clippers, as they are on the brink of elimination, and they have left everyone wondering how this series would have played out differently if Kawhi Leonard were playing.
Will the Clippers show any fight, or is it going to be 1-2-3 Cancun for James Harden & Co.? I hear there are good deals on flights from Dallas to Cancun; at least that's what the billboard outside of Crypto.com Arena said.
Find out which NBA player props I'm backing in my free NBA picks and predictions for Friday, May 3.
Best NBA player props today
- Paolo Banchero Under 24.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
- Ivica Zubac Under 13.5 points (-101 at Pinnacle)
- Max Strus Over 9.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 5-3 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for May 3
Prop bet #1: Banchero baffled
If you follow me on X or my NBA player props this season, it's no secret that my favorite team is the Orlando Magic. But when it comes to sports betting, nobody is safe when trying to win a unit, and I'm betting the Under on Paolo Banchero's points prop on Friday in an elimination game for the Magic.
Banchero scored 39 points in Game 5 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, causing his total to jump from 22.5 to 24.5. The extra two points we are seeing on this number for Banchero is our edge, and it's why I'm betting the Under.
Banchero may have scored 39 points against the Cavaliers in Game 5, but let's look at how he scored the points. He knocked down four 3-pointers and also hit a ton of tough jump shots in the mid-range. These aren't easy shots; it's not like he was able to drive the lane and finish easy layups at the rim or anything. Banchero doesn't have the space to operate against this Cavaliers defense, so he is relying on his jump shot.
Not only was Banchero knocking down tough shots, but his offensive game could be impacted by injuries to other players on Friday. Jarrett Allen missed Game 5 for the Cavaliers, which created more space in the lane for Banchero, and he could possibly return on Friday. The other injury that will hurt Banchero is Gary Harris, who is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury.
Harris is in the lineup to shoot the 3-pointer and help create space for Banchero, and while he hasn't been making many shots, even the threat of Harris as a shooter helps give Banchero more room to operate. If Harris is replaced in the lineup by Markelle Fultz, the Cavaliers will be able to push even more help defense towards Banchero.
Banchero is projected to score 23.3 points on Friday against the Cavaliers, which allows us to price the Paolo Banchero odds on Under 24.5 points at -141, but it is available at DraftKings at -102.
Paolo Banchero prop: Under 24.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Don't back Zubac
Ivica Zubac has gone Over his points total in four of the five games in this series against the Dallas Mavericks, but with his total now up to 13.5 compared to the 11.5 we saw at the beginning of the series, I'm playing the Under on Friday.
Not only is Zubac's total up to 13.5, but we saw some different lineups from the Mavericks in Game 5 that I think could spell trouble for Zubac. The Mavericks were rolling with Maxi Kleber at the 4 and Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively at the 5, causing absolute fits for the Los Angeles Clippers defense.
When Luka Doncic drove the lane, he either had Kleber in the corner for a 3-pointer or Lively and Gafford in the dunker's spot as a lob threat. Doncic was able to find Lively and Gafford on several alley-oops, continuing to burn Zubac with the lob pass. This makes me wonder if Zubac's minutes could get faded for Mason Plumlee as Ty Lue looks for different answers in an elimination game.
Here is the best part of the bet: we don't even need his minutes faded to establish an edge. The projection has Zubac falling Under the total of 13.5 points while playing 33 minutes. Zubac hasn't played more than 33 minutes in this series, so this projection is basically at its ceiling for Zubac, and it's still not enough for the 13.5 points? Give me the Under.
Also, by playing Kleber at the 4 instead of the 5, it gives the Mavericks a rim protector on defense who can slow down Zubac at all times. Whether it's Gafford or Lively, either one is able to meet Zubac at the rim and make life difficult for him in the paint, which wasn't always the case when Kleber was playing the 5.
Zubac is projected to score 12.4 points on Friday against the Mavericks, which allows us to price the under on the Ivica Zubac odds for 13.5 points at -158, but it is available at Pinnacle at -101. There's also an Under 14.5 points at -125 at FanDuel, which is directly behind this number in expected value.
Ivica Zubac prop: Under 13.5 points (-101 at Pinnacle)
Prop bet #3: Strus is loose
Last season, when the Cavaliers were eliminated by the New York Knicks in the first round of the NBA playoffs, their lack of 3-point shooting was exposed. They addressed this issue in the offseason by signing Max Strus. Strus hasn't had the best series against the Magic so far, but he showed some signs of life in Game 5, and the Cavaliers need what he brings to them offensively.
The Magic have positional size, rim protection, and can make life very difficult for Donovan Mitchell. It's Strus' job to space them out with his shooting, and he accomplished that in Game 5 when he scored 16 points and drained four 3-pointers on 10 attempts.
The 10 attempts from deep are a very encouraging sign for Strus, as he was pulling them from well beyond the arc. Strus is trying to pull the Magic defense as far away from the paint as he can, and he should be encouraged by their coaching staff to keep letting it fly from deep because it's crucial to help create space for Mitchell against this tough Magic defense.
When you look at this total of 9.5 points for Strus, we can establish a healthy edge over this number as long as we get around 33 minutes from Strus. While we don't need it, I think he could play more than 33 minutes not only because of his shooting but also because of his defense. Strus is the primary defender on Franz Wagner, and he was able to keep him in check for only 14 points in Game 5.
In the three games that were even remotely competitive, the lowest amount of minutes that Strus played was 33, and in Tuesday's Game 5, which was a one-point game, he played 40 minutes. We don't need the elevated minutes, but it's very encouraging to me that he has a very specific role on the offensive and defensive ends that are needed by the Cavaliers in this matchup against the Magic.
Strus is projected to score 11.4 points on Friday against the Magic, which allows us to price the Over 9.5 points at -162 in the Max Strus odds, but it is available at FanDuel at -115.
Max Strus prop: Over 9.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
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