Wurth 400: Dover Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

After last weekend's superspeedway madness, we're back on an intermediate oval at Dover for the Wurth 400. As such, we're not surprisingly seeing Kyle Larson take pole position on the NASCAR odds board heading into this week's event. 

With a tight pack atop the season-long NASCAR Cup Series odds, and a slew of the favorites sitting near the top of the Wurth 400 odds, there could be some separation created this week — can one of NASCAR's best pull off a win?

Find out as we break down the field and odds for this afternoon with the best Wurth 400 betting picks for Sunday, April 28.

Odds to win 2024 Wurth 400

Driver
Kyle Larson	+500
William Byron	+600
Martin Truex Jr.	+700
Kyle Busch	+700
Denny Hamlin	+700
Ryan Blaney	+850
Chase Elliott	+1,200
Ross Chastain	+1,300
Tyler Reddick	+1,500
Alex Bowman	+1,600
Ty Gibbs	+1,800
Christopher Bell	+2,500
Joey Logano	+2,500
Brad Keselowski	+3,000
Chris Buescher	+4,000

Odds as of  4-28-2024.

Wurth 400 field

Since we're on an intermediate track this week, it should come as no surprise that Kyle Larson tops this week's odds board. Larson's been a perennial favorite on these tracks since his dominant romp in 2021, and despite a disappointing finish at Dover last year and no wins here since 2019, his results on like tracks are stellar.

Martin Truex Jr. sits right behind Larson — the defending Dover champ; one of four Cup Series wins for him here. Truex is looking for his first win on the season, and some momentum after a trio of finishes outside the Top 10. 

William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Denny Hamlin find themselves knotted at several books, also available under 10:1. While Chastain's had a slow start to this season (just one Top-5 finish; ninth in points), Hamlin and Byron are the only Cup Series drivers with multiple victories already this season. 

Overall, the field's distribution continues to slowly normalize towards a typical linear distribution after early-season lines were set at very all-or-nothing prices, with pretty much every driver listed as a credible contender (near or under +2,000), or a huge longshot (+6,000 or higher). The gap is bridged slightly this week, with seven drivers priced between those benchmarks. It's a far cry from what we've been used to seeing the past few seasons, but inching away from early-season trends.

Wurth 400 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, April 23, 2024.

Wurth 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Kyle Larson (+450)
32nd last year, but had four consecutive Top-6 finishes prior including a win in Oct. 2019 and runner-up in May 2021. He’s led 436 laps in his last four Dover starts. On short tracks this season, Larson has finished 14th (Phoenix), fifth (Bristol), third (Richmond), and second (Martinsville). 

Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
The speed is there. He led 68 laps and won last year. Truex also has a win in the spring race of 2019 and three straight runner-ups to follow before being 19th in 2021. He regained strength back last year in scoring a 12th place finish. The thing is, he led five laps and was battling with Ross Chastain for third on the final lap before contact sent Truex to a finish outside the Top 10. He was fifth and fourth, respectively, in both stages. Since 2014, he has 13 Top-10 finishes (17 starts) including nine Top-4 finishes in his last 12 tries. On short tracks in 2024, Truex has finished seventh (Phoenix), second (Bristol), fourth (Richmond) and 18th (Martinsville). 

William Byron (+750)
He’s finished fourth place in three of his last four Dover starts. While he was only 18th in Phoenix and 35th at Bristol this season, he also was seventh in Richmond and won at Martinsville. 

Denny Hamlin (+750)
Hard to ignore here. Hamlin, has six Top-7 finishes in his last nine Dover starts including a runner-up in 2018 and a victory in 2020. If not for multiple issues while running up front in 2022, Hamlin likely would have been a key player for the win. He led 67 laps in 2022, two in 2021, 115 laps in Race 1 in 2020 and 218 laps in 2019. He led four laps and finished fifth last season. On short tracks in 2024, Hamlin has finished 11th (Phoenix), won (Bristol), won (Richmond), and 11th at Martinsville. 

Wurth 400 sleepers

Chase Elliott (+1,100)
He’s scored five Top-5 finishes in his last eight Dover starts including a win in 2022 and third place finish in 2021. Elliott was 19th at Phoenix, eighth at Bristol, fifth at Richmond, and third in Martinsville this season.

Alex Bowman (+1,600)
20th at Phoenix, fourth at Bristol, 17th at Richmond, and eighth at Martinsville this season. At Dover, Bowman missed last season due to injury but was fifth in 2020, won this race in 2021 after leading 92 laps, and fifth again in 2022.

Ty Gibbs (+1,900)
He was fifth and third, respectively, in his pair of Xfinity Series starts. This car led 103 laps in 2022 and was 13th with Gibbs last season. He finished third in Phoenix, ninth at Bristol, 16th at Richmond, and 18th in Martinsville. 

Tyler Reddick (+1,300)
Threw 23XI Racing in here too, as Toyotas rate well at Dover. Reddick has two Top-8 finishes in his last three Dover tries, and on short tracks this season has finished 10th (Phoenix), 30th (Bristol), 10th (Richmond) and seventh (Martinsville). 

Wurth 400 fades

Ryan Blaney (+1,300)
Just one Top 5 and three Top-10 finishes in 13 career Dover starts isn’t ideal. Seven of his last eight Dover starts have seen him finish 12th or worse. 

Joey Logano (+2,000) 
He had three straight Top-8 finishes at Dover, including five in his last six starts, prior to being 29th and 31st the last two years. Logano has also struggled on short tracks this season, including finishes of 34th and 22nd.

Wurth 400 prop pick

Ross Chastain Top-5 finish (+100)

Chastain finished third after leading 86 laps in 2022 and runner-up after leading 98 laps a year ago. His four combined stage finishes were also fourth and sixth (2022) and fifth and first (last year). On short tracks, Chastain won at Phoenix last Fall and was sixth at Phoenix this spring, but 15th, 15th and 14th at the other three this season. With JGR and Hendrick having the advantage, a Top-5 finish play is wise. 

Pick: Chastain Top-5 finish (+100 at DraftKings)

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Dover track analysis

Nothing changed between last year and this year’s Dover track. The only difference in the car is that more downforce has been taken off, which will make the cars slide around even more. With a concrete track, the tires will play a key role because with that lesser amount of downforce, sliding around more will lead to more tire wear. 

Who can counter that the best?

Hendrick Motorsports was dominant in the old car (2021) with the Next Gen car (2022-present) and with this new downforce package (two wins on three short track races this season). The best question is, can anyone stop them?

This is why you go with a Hendrick Motorsports vs. Joe Gibbs Racing pack this weekend and fade the field.

Wurth 400 trends

• The pole winner has won 13 times at Dover. But, what’s odd is, there hasn’t been a pole winner to win on the Monster Mile though since 2011.
  
  
• Three of the last six Dover winners have come from a starting spot of Row 7 or worse. However, the second place starting spot has won almost half (4) of the last nine races there too.
  
  
• If you go back to 2016, we’ve had 11 straight races at Dover where someone led at least 100 laps.

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How to make Wurth 400 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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